Brexit Arms - Pop Up

[time4chocolate]

Well I’m going to have a crack at this Landlady business and I’ve opened a pop up pub.

Rules are:
Anything brexit related is up for discussion and even not Brexit related if you feel the need (so if you want to discuss Haemoroids that’s ok too ).

I’m ok with a bit of arseyness (it’s an emotive subject) but if you go full monty in here I reserve the right to withhold all alcoholic beverages.

I have reserved a quiet table for MNHQ if they want to pop in for a quiet drink (Happy Hour is 6-7pm).

Haven’t properly caught up yet with today’s Brexit news yet but looks like we are finally facing end game, that said still plenty of days left for high jinks and holidays.

Anyone have any views on how they think the next few days will play out are welcome to voice here.

First drinks are on the house 🍻 Cheers

Why is this still so dependant on the DUP - the only account for 10 votes and BJ is already 20 Tories down.

I don’t see how he has the numbers even with the DUP so why give them the ‘credit’ for preventing this being possible?

Unless I’ve just answered my own question and it’s about being seen to have someone to blame for something that was impossible anyway

The work has hardly started.
BoJo will have to come up with a WA that satisfies all the leavers and can fit with the E. The existing WA is 585 pages of legally binding text so Bojo's 'new' version will have to cover all the aspects in the existing one.
Of course leavers don't actually know what they want, otherwise the precise list of 'demands from all 17 million of them would be widely publicised. Thus far they have said what they don't want, but have not paid any attention to what they do want, so in a nutshell, they won't get it.
'Out' is not a destination.

Deal agreed in principle now according to Juncker.

No indication what's in it yet...

Either way, we can look forward to brexit-blocking Parliament voting against it, insisting on extension, then continuing to refuse a GE 🤷🏻‍♀️

Bear Hammond practically came out for 2nd Ref on air at 7pm last night (Antoinette Sandbach did the same the night before and Sam Coates reporting lots of the rest of the 21 similarly minded. Labour whipping for a 2nd Ref). Would not be at all surprised if that hardened attitudes immeasurably.

No point compromising to "Get Brexit Done" if a Confirmatory Ref against Remain gets tacked on the end. If that is the only choice then better for them to go for No Deal versus Remain in a GE.

Boris also confirming Deal Done.

I guess the pressure now starts on the 21 to back away from the 2nd Ref? Assume the carrot will be regaining the Whip for GE and if they make a good show of holding out on "level playing fieldish" assurances they give cover to Labour Dealers.

It's down to the ERG and DUP.
No point in Johnson trying to get people who won't support it on principle. No point blaming them when they are not the crucial numbers.

He doesn't have the numbers even with all of ERG & DUP onside (which DUP currently aren't anyway) - he needs several non-Tory/DUP MPs to get it through

Of course if leaving the EU would actually satisfy all 17.4 million leave voters individually, then the 'deal' would have been done over 2 years ago.
The point remains that they still have no fucking clue what they actually WANT or how to get it. Some have correctly identified that leaving is a pretty silly idea and everyone has played silly buggers as a smoke screen to hide the fact that 17 million will NEVER get what they think they want.

All we can do now is wait to see what blame game is cooked up.

The blame rests entirely with Parliament.

TM refusing to countenance a cross party Brexit plan, TM caving on sequencing, TM approaching Brexit through the prism of 'what remainers think leavers want', ministers in her cabinet actively working to subvert, MPs from other parties actively working to subvert (rather than accept then push instead for softer version), MPs standing on a 'respect the ref, support Brexit' platform then reneging on that promise once elected, opposition parties using Brexit as opportunity to play party politics instead of putting country first, ERG for being intransigent, ERG & DUP holding TM hostage, Bercow using every conceivable opportunity to actively subvert, anti-Brexit coalition holding a zombie govt hostage & refusing a GE, anti-Brexit coalition refusing to countenance anything which isn't a route to revoke.

They're all culpable.

If this deal does not pass, we need an extension & immediate GE to drain the swamp & move forward.

I'm sick of the lot of them.

Agree with this (Darren Grimes on Twitter):

There’s quite an easy way for Brussels to move on and get the Remoaner MPs to fall in line: make absolutely clear that it’s this deal, or no deal. NO further extension.

Why should people absolutely opposed to leaving "fall in line". Your problem is the DUP/ERG sect first. And then it's convincing Labour MPs who are willing to accept an orderly Brexit that this is the proverbial "IT".

Wrt the EU saying 'no extension, this is it' to focus minds in Parliament - if Parliament then go on to reject it (for eg ERG taking opportunity to hold out for no deal), then there's nothing to stop EU granting an extension anyway if it does fail to pass

Morning frothers.

Brilliant summary dusty.

Exciting times afoot, yet again.
Jo swinson more determined than ever to stop brexit.

So why waste energy wittering on about Remoaners? It's the cult members first then anyone else who is prepared to accept an orderly Brexit.

Why should people absolutely opposed to leaving "fall in line"

The majority of MPs in Parliament stood on a commitment to respect the ref & deliver Brexit (Labour & Tory, save for a very few who were explicitly anti-brexit)

I expect them to fall in line

SNP, Lib Dem etc? They stood on anti-brexit promise so of course I don't expect them to fall in line

It's a great deal for the EU, basically back to the Feb 2018 version. Lots of opportunity here to encourage relocation of supply chains and financial services to the EU. Looks like a win, if only your MPs are dumb enough to vote for it!

Yy dusty of course.
Because they are supposed to be Democrats and uphold democracy.

So why waste energy wittering on about Remoaners? It's the cult members first then anyone else who is prepared to accept an orderly Brexit.

I am not 'wittering on about remoaners'

I cut & pasted a tweet (which I explicitly stated was someone else's tweet) which contained the word 'remoaner'

I'm only interested in those MPs who were elected on a 'respect the ref' mandate, and they are a majority in Parliament

Jrm explaining it now, backstop gone, article 4 now moot so we are not under eu rule and can set own tariffs etc.

Arf at bellinge talking about wittering on.

Fingers crossed EU say "it's this deal or no deal; no extension forthcoming. Shit, or get off the pot"

Then pour a drink & witness the machinations & foot stamping of "I'm not anti-brexit, I'm just anti no-deal" liars in WM

Turns out mine and others "wittering" on about a border in the sea is part of all this.@Burpsandrustles

I'm absolutely convinced it was your MN posts that alerted Cummings to a solution Bellini 😂

Ha ha. I think "it's bleeding obvious " has more to do with it.