Westminstenders: Pro Rogues

[RedToothBrush]

The Pro Rogues plan to prorogue again this week.

The Queen might be challenged to sack Johnson. Or he might be forced to extend.

It depends on which newspaper you read. Either way it strikes you that no one really knows what's going to happen...

Schrödinger's No Deal : simultaneously it will all be fiiiiiiine and we'll have the food we needplenty of food and all the disastrous consequences are the EU's fault.

See also: individual countries have no voice in the EU and it's just faceless, unelected bureaucracts calling the shots at the same time as Ireland has too much power and it's not fair that they are calling the shots

BJ plans emergency Saturday sitting of Parliament on 19 October, which is just after EUCO

And when he should be sending his letter requesting an extension ....

Otto English@Otto_English

The last time parliament sat on a Saturday was to discuss the Falklands,
the time before that was Suez,
the time before that was something to do with holidays,
the time before that was war.

Unless they're meeting to discuss the parliamentary summer barbecue it's bad.^

DG There was a poll last year on FOM

• A majority wanted British citizens to retain FOM
• A majority - same poll - wanted to stop FOM for E27 citizens into the UK ..... 🤦🏻‍♀️

Funnily enough, I read that the Supreme Court has no cases whatsoever scheduled from about 15 October

Well he can’t appeal the nobile officium ruling today.

What a shame.

I'm interested to know why people in this thread appear to hate JC so much? I could understand if you all got your news from the BBC but you're obviously quite clearly able to see the bias there and consult many other sources.
I'm genuinely confused as to the hatred in general for him, unless you're a Tory that is!
To me he seems to have the interests of minorities and poor people at heart. He is principled and sticks to his guns, unlike many other politicians - this I find personally annoying as I'm a firm remainer, his stance on Brexit doesn't agree with my own but I can see he's trying to honour the result of the referendum, while not plunging us into the shit of No Deal.
Answers on a postcard!

Otto English@Otto_English

....In 2016 the UK was the 79th largest country but we had the 5th largest economy.
Who in all seriousness expected that we could do better.

What was the plan?
To leapfrog China and the USA?

It was utterly deluded from the start.

not Well, most of us here mistrust & despise JC - imo, hate's the wrong word - but not as much as we fear No Deal

So Cendrillon's Tory Party have made people in the centre / left & right of centre ready to vote for him,
who would normally be his bitter opponents 🤔

If you like your polls:

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-britain-against-leaving-eu-as-poll-of-polls-says-most-now-want-to-stay-a4257476.html

Britain has turned against Brexit and would now vote to stay in the European Union, according to the biggest ever poll-of-polls.

The YouGov analysis for the Evening Standard of 300 surveys shows “concrete” evidence that the country shifted against quitting the European bloc in the year after the June 2016 referendum and has steadfastly stuck to this position ever since.

(contd).

Gorgeous George, not getting with the programme. Or should that be on the bus ?

The London Assembly gave BJ 14 days to respond to the serious allegations about his relationship with Jennifer Arcuri while Mayor,
relating to potential misuse of hundreds of thousands of taxpayers’ money

The deadline ran out yesterday at 5:30 pm without reply, but since then ....

< late, just to show his power & arrogance >

London Assembly@LondonAssembly
·
We have now received a response on behalf of @BorisJohnson

We are not able to publish it.

More balance.

Very narrow still
To end Brexit as an issue, we need to see 60:40, which is likely to take some years

Those years need a safe harbour in the meantime, such as a new 5-year term for a LAB or GNU govt

"The results suggest Remain would win a second referendum,
but Leave could clinch it given the narrow gap, especially if it ran a better campaign as last time and got supporters out to vote in greater numbers."

And while we're talking adtech and influence, I'd be curious if the people who are happy to let advertising promote right wing politics are equally happy to let it promote child sexual abuse (let's not use that weasel phrase "porn" here) ? As it seems the two appear to be entwined ...

www.linkedin.com/pulse/breitbart-just-start-brands-funding-child-porn-too-nandini-jammi/

...
If you thought funding white nationalist rag Breitbart was bad, pick your jaw up off the floor: Child porn is traded on the dark web, but the money flows directly from brand advertising budgets. Your ads are paying for child porn.
...

David Allen Green
@davidallengreen
According to a Downing Street source:

"Over the past few months I have posted a series of false stories to see if they made their way into the news media. And you know what, they did!"

Just updating the BMG poll from Monday and including the don’t knows.

Poll as given ( ) is September results.

Con 31% (31%)
Lab 26% (27%)
Lib 20% (19%)
BXP 11% (12%)
This ^ group are 52% male. BMG also ask a ‘squeeze’ question where they ask the DKs which party they are leaning towards they are also included in this number, Lib Dem’s are the biggest beneficiary of this.

Results below include the don’t knows. ( ) is September results.

Con 26% (26%)
Lab 22% (22%)
Lib 15% (14%)
BXP 9% (10%)
DK 19% (19%)

Of the DK 70% are female.

Conservative party need to obliterate the BXP or take at least half of the DK to be sure of a win.

Sebastian Payne
@SebastianEPayne
·
4h
💥 At least 50 Conservative MPs including three cabinet ministers would revolt against a manifesto pledging to pursue no deal Brexit.

MPs call the idea of the Tories advocating no deal “lunacy”, “madness” and “ludicrous”.

www.ft.com/content/ec1cc384-e9e3-11e9-85f4-d00e5018f061

And if BJ, or his successor in say 5 years, win a GE after a PM and a narrow Remain win,
they can easily Invoke and leave with No Deal the next day,

• saying the 2016 ref was not honoured, so they won't honour the PV

It would be very different politically if there were a large Remain win, of at least 60%,
but I don't see that as at all likely

I would expect BJ / Cummings to continue purging the party

Leading Brexiters have said that any Tory candidate standing would have to sign up to the manifesto, or be replaced

The best chance of stopping No Deal is in this Parliament,
before the final Tory purge and also while all the rebels are still MPs

The latest commentary on today's proceedings from jolly Jolyon:

“These cases are about keeping the Prime Minister on the straight and narrow. We have extracted from him a promise that he will comply with the law. If he breaks that promise he will face the music – including possible contempt proceedings. And the Courts are likely to make good any failure on his part, including signing the Benn Act letter.”

I'd bet that Boris will be willing to risk any possible contempt proceedings if it means getting the Scottish judges to send the letter. As the framing for an England-based populist election campaign, it could hardly be more perfect for him.

I'm interested to know why people in this thread appear to hate JC so much

I don't hate him. I think he's pretty useless and so are a lot of his shadow cabinet. If you're planning to implement some fairly radical policies you need to do it carefully and competently.

(Obviously the same comment could also be applied to the Tories, except that I do actually hate the fatberg).

The best chance of stopping No Deal is in this* Parliament,
before the final Tory purge and also while all the rebels are still MPs*

This parliament can only stop no deal temporarily. There's going to have to be a new GE now that the GNU has gone extinct.

I am somewhat less gloomy about the GE than I used to be. I think the chances of a Fatberg majority are actually much slimmer than the polls suggest.

Leading Brexiters have said that any Tory candidate standing would have to sign up to the manifesto, or be replaced

Which sounds dangerously like it comes from an attitude of taking Tory voters for granted.

I wonder how some of them will feel about that ? Traditionally, from memory, it's parties that start taking their support for granted that get a nasty shock when people vote.

Either way, it's going to create enough uncertainty to make polls of limited use, and a hung parliament that much more likely.

Be curious to see what the tory plans for that would be. I'm guessing they involve some sort of hypothetical BXP alliance. I say hypothetical, as I still don't think BXP will win many - if any - seats in a GE.

I am somewhat less gloomy about the GE than I used to be. I think the chances of a Fatberg majority are actually much slimmer than the polls suggest.

Theresa May lost the 2017 election, and say what you will, there's no doubt she appealed to the voters that wanted a relatively competent PM.

It's hard to see Boris having any similar appeal to that section of the electorate.

Notstrong
Corbyn is not a leader.
He has always been somebody who champions marginal causes from the sidelines.
He has never had to be flexible and negotiate and ignore tribes for the greater good.
If Labour had had a better leader (even Ed), the opposition would have been better at holding the Government to account over the last 3 years.

Labour say they want to negotiate a new deal
and then campaign for remain
WHY would the EU want to waste ink and paper on that ?

A new, solidly remain, Labour leader who could articulate to the Leave constituencies that Brexit is a Nihilist Disaster Capitalist plot and that they should support revoke ....

Why is Boris doing this? He’ll never work again. Not in Parliament surely once he’s finally removed.

He’s wrecked the Conservative party, ruining our country.

I can’t see that making loads of money on behalf of himself or anyone else is worth all this chaos and destruction.

He looks so happy and cheerful. Not at all like a man who’s being bullied into this.

Why’s he so susceptible to Cummings’ influence? Has he been brainwashed? Are they slowing working on more of them. It’s all so weird.