Westminstenders: Pro Rogues

[RedToothBrush]

The Pro Rogues plan to prorogue again this week.

The Queen might be challenged to sack Johnson. Or he might be forced to extend.

It depends on which newspaper you read. Either way it strikes you that no one really knows what's going to happen...

Interesting DGR. I find it odd that tribalism in public is stronger than ever whereas actual voting patterns suggest it's weak in private.

One of the things about the future we've build for ourselves, is we've managed to disconnect the shouters and the thinkers. Pretty effectively, as it turns out.

Which isn't necessarily a bad thing ... I think it's partly why 2017 was such an odd poll/result election, and why I think for all the bravado, everyone is jittery about the next election - whenever it may be.

I'd be curious to know - and either the research hasn't been done, or it's been done and hidden - to know how many Keyboard Warriors actually vote ? Given we can only work from self-reported instances which is just anecdata.

The Tory/Labour disdain for AV in 2011 was predicated upon past behaviour and hopefully in hindsight looks like a monumental misstep. It will be interesting to see what ideas emerge to correct that in the future.

I'm not saying I agree with it (under the present circumstances I personally would vote for the best placed candidate who wasn't CON or BXP). But it's not a fundamentally unreasonable point of view.

Totally agree Misti, but some pp's you know would never vote Labour in a million years, but of course they would if Corbyn wasnt leader [eye roll]

However, in principle it allows people with PR in one member state to move to other participating member states, despite not being citizens. It's a huge paperwork issue apparently but it does exist.

Are you sure about this? Because everything I have read suggests that residency will NOT give the right to work in other member states without a work permit, and that cross border workers are the big losers here.

Obviously in the services sector there is something of a blurred line between a business trip for a "meeting" versus one to supply a service. And I am not sure how digital services will be affected.

but some pp's you know would never vote Labour in a million years, but of course they would if Corbyn wasnt leader

Which comes across as learned behaviour, rather than the result of any actual thought.

@BirdandSparrow

A very similar question came up on the R4 Moneybox programme - I had a dig around and it’s here - from about 5.10 onwards.

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00010yt

It’s a translator resident in Italy but providing services to clients in other EU countries. It relates to a clause in May’s original WA and that meant that Brits resident in one EU country could not provide cross border services to a company established in another EU state. She also said that she couldn’t find a legal answer to whether her services could be classified as rendered at source.

I don’t know if her residency status is the same as yours, or how things have changed since May’s WA, but might be worth a listen?

Which comes across as learned behaviour, rather than the result of any actual thought.

Daily drip feed of Red Top headlines and BBC 'reporting' they never focus on policy just on Corbyn so its no wonder tbh, next leader will get it and then it will be 'I'd vote Labour if they werent leader'

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3712877-Peoples-Vote-March-Oct-19th March on Oct 19th Gathering thread.

@pretty That was me suggesting Lady Hermon as the only truly neutral candidate wrt GB
I keep hoping MPs or their advisers are reading these threads, in case a GNU becomes necessary at some stage

She can't hurt any GB party, or influence the Labour succession
No MPs, except maybe the DUP & SInn Fein, have anything against her - and those NI MPs would never be part of any GNU.

Daily drip feed of Red Top headlines and BBC 'reporting' they never focus on policy just on Corbyn so its no wonder tbh, next leader will get it and then it will be 'I'd vote Labour if they werent leader'

Plus inheriting a sense of "who you are" from parents.

But for all that, there is clearly a disconnect between the people they find to respond to opinion polls (by definition self-selecting) and the actual electorate. The lady in the "towrag" clip, for example. What online poll is going to capture her opinion and then match it to the vote that I strongly suspect she will cast ?

And I know for a fact, DS and chums deliberately prat about if they get sight of any poll on Facebook. That's when they use Facebook, because (and I know this since I'm on FB far more than he is these days) "Facebook is so lame, Dad". Which means there's a level of data-salting going on somewhere. If just in the City Centre of Birmingham skateboarder community .

Still vague on topic, I'm a member of a couple of moderated communities (IT and nerdy shit) and the discussions there are quite different in character to unmoderated forums. It's one reason I'm aware there's a level of botposts going on.

Thanks Misti Stack and Continuity. I'm actually less worried about the providing services thing as almost all my customers are in Spain. I'm a translator and there's been a lot of chatter on translation networks about this, but nobody seems to know the answer and there seems to be no real, reliable information either.
I'm actually more worried about my citizen rights, like to healthcare and so on in the event of no deal. I've made an appointment to ask to have Irish added to my residency card so at least I can prove I am still an EU citizen, apart from just waiving the Irish passport.

What do people think the chances of a crash out are this month?

"it allows people with PR in one member state to move to other participating member states, despite not being citizens. It's a huge paperwork issue apparently but it does exist"

I'm sure that is NOT the case.
Please supply any link you have that states otherwise - from the EU, not a hopeful article from elsewhere

Most, if not all, of the E27 have said that UK expats can continue to work in their E27 host country, including providing some services

BUT
there would be no FOM - even under the WA -
and I'm pretty sure, no right to sell services if there is No Deal
That's the problem with No Deal - the UK would be treated as a 3rd country as far as the EU is concerned, including our expats.

UK cross-border workers are one of the groups that are known will be severely affected after No Deal.
They will be dependent on any agreement between their host & neighbouring countries - which could take some time

It is also unclear after No Deal under what circumstances professional qualifications for UK lawyers, doctors etc would be recognised, e.g. those obtained before Brexit Day

• that probably depends on the host country and probably won't be EU wide

Under the WA, UK expat professional qualifications would be recognised throughout the EU.

Scottish Court has just ruled that it won’t currently issue an order to make Johnson sign a letter or send a letter on his behalf as it believes Johnson will comply with the Benn Act, but will give him until 21st October to comply.

Bird Definitely change your residence permit to show you are an EU citizen.
That would mean nothing would change for you: work, healthcare etc

Oh - and as this process is unique to Scots law, there seems to be no Supreme Court appeal process.

That's what I expected the Scottish Court to do.

Although I'm sure it will be spun by some Brexiters and the Government as the petitioners having "lost"

"will give him until 21st October to comply."

That's fair enough

It’s a smart decision - “a sword of Damocles hanging over Johnson’s head”.

Wonder how the “No 10 source” will rant over this?

Daily drip feed of Red Top headlines and BBC 'reporting' they never focus on policy just on Corbyn so its no wonder tbh, next leader will get it and then it will be 'I'd vote Labour if they werent leader'

Don’t worry, I despise both Corbyn the person and Corbynism the policy platform, with the latter being ever more dangerous. But if a Blairite policy platform were adopted, a lot of Conservative and Lib Dem and floating voters would feel safe to vote Labour to save our EU membership without subsequently being robbed blind. Them’s the facts, I’m afraid - Labour would be on course for a solid majority, instead of fighting the Lib Dems for 2nd place.

Permanent residency (long term residency) in an EU country does give the right for non-EU citizens to move to other EU countries in some cases.

ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/legal-migration/long-term-residents_en says so.

Chapter 3 of this Directive sets out the rights and conditions that apply:

eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:02003L0109-20110520&qid=1472219910415&from=EN

(Hello from a lurker, and thank you all for the information and analysis you share; it's the only way I have even the slightest understanding of UK politics at the moment!)

Funnily enough, I read that the Supreme Court has no cases whatsoever scheduled from about 15 October

i.e. they would be able to immediately hear any case wrt BJ and / or Brexit

BigChocFrenzy - here's hoping that the sensible ones do read these threads - or at the very least, get their researchers to read them

So, if no deal brexit is all prepared for, going to be great for the country, not result in food and medicine shortages etc, why are Johnson and Cummings setting up the narrative that the EU is to blame? Surely they should be making sure they get all the kudos for this bold step forward.

Thanks, Mum
My understanding was that this is only for longterm residents, which is those who can prove they have been resident either 5 years or 7 years - I'm not sure

The British in Europe and British in Germany networks don't seem to consider those 3rd country / No Deal rights as in any way adequate

• maybe because of those who have been resident less than 5 years ? Or because it requires a lot of paperwork for each action ?

there would be no FOM - even under the WA

I think, if you were to privately poll the Brexiteers for a hierarchy of needs, scrapping FOM is almost certainly the main aim of all. It's why May was so wishy washy when offers were made to secure citizens rights.

You'd probably placate a lot of Brexiteers if you just scrapped FOM. They'd never notice remaining in the SM and CU (although I know FOM is a pillar of those).