Westminstenders: Pro Rogues

[RedToothBrush]

The Pro Rogues plan to prorogue again this week.

The Queen might be challenged to sack Johnson. Or he might be forced to extend.

It depends on which newspaper you read. Either way it strikes you that no one really knows what's going to happen...

Theresa May lost the 2017 election, and say what you will, there's no doubt she appealed to the voters that wanted a relatively competent PM.

I think this is a particularly insightful comment.

I have pro-Remain Tory colleagues who undoubtedly gave May the benefit of the doubt. But the Fatberg?

So do the polls show that it could be up to what the Women Don't Knows decide to vote on the day?
If the opposition parties could tactically capture most of them, it might be the end of Johnson...

"This parliament can only stop no deal temporarily."

Passing May's WA would stop it permanently

If MPs are going to pass it, they could stick something in the bill to close any loophole, e.g. automatically pass any required enabling legislation.

Afterwards, breaking an international treaty - which in this case would allow EU govts, foreign investors, businesses etc to sue the UK - and becoming a pariah is v v unlikey.

I dont hate JC but I think his so called integrity is questionable. In terms of personal morality, he is clearly completely trustworthy and that definitely means something [gazes at HM's Prime Minister in appalled disbelief yet again]. But the Leader if the Opposition is a messy, brawling, strongarm kind of position, which is why ruthless careerists like Yvette Cooper are the ones to go for [other ruthless careerists are available]. The idea of saying either 'this isnt the job for me' or 'I'm a levite and I'm going to take the party with me on this' is simply beyond him. He isnt strategic and I am so tired of tacticians in such important jobs.

I have pro-Remain Tory colleagues who undoubtedly gave May the benefit of the doubt. But the Fatberg?

Indeed, and I am someone who falls into that category who won’t be voting for BJ...Also, although she “lost”, she did increase the Tories vote share by nearly 6%!

I think there is a very strong argument that women don't knows are unlikely to break for Johnson.

Anecdotal, but my mum is probably a fairly typical floating voter who if polled would be a don't know. Has voted Tory, Lab and Lib in the past. Can't stand the Fatberg. She voted green at the Europeans (SW - Molly Scott Cato's constituency. Mum likes no-nonsense down to earth older female candidates like Molly and so she should). However, her constituency is not a green target in a GE. I'll make sure she has all the necessary information to make a tactical voting choice ;)

Lexiter not a Levite. A particularly unfortunate autocorrect...

So do the polls show that it could be up to what the Women Don't Knows decide to vote on the day?

And I believe most of those were Labour or LDs in 2017.... so unlikely to break strongly for the Tories. Can’t recall where I read that though.

Yep, a Tory win, despite the polls, is by no means a foregone conclusion
A hung Parliament looks feasible too; an outright Labour win v unlikely

However, Tory Remainers - about 30% of Tory voters -
seem far more loyal than Tory Brexiters - about 70%

So the Tory strategy seems to be to go rampant nationalist / anti-German to keep the Brexity vote from going to Farage,
while compensating for losing some Remainers by winning Labour Leave seats

I posted an article by a polling analyst showing that the discrepancy between the 2 groups of pollsters

• one showing a v narrow Tory lead and the other a huge one - is almost entirely because of the different assessment as to how many Labour Leave seats the Tories can win.

In my worst suspicions of JC, I have never considered that he would attack judges & the courts, hint at disobeying them

or try to prorogue Parliament for 5 weeks, to shut down the Opposition

and I certainly don't expect that any girlfriends he may have had, have received hundreds of thousands in public money

or that he would discuss having an a journalist beaten up

or ..... < umpteen other outrages by BJ / the English Nihilist Party who make JC look relatively harmless ! >

Why is Boris doing this? He’ll never work again. Not in Parliament surely once he’s finally removed.

Well his experience to date is that he does always get to work again. He actually can't be 100% blamed for thinking his behaviour is ok can he? The country, the Tory party, his wife have forgiven him so many times surely he is justified in thinking normal rules don't apply to him? He has survived the following:

-Being sacked for lying in the Times for making up quotes.

• Being sacked by Tory leader Michael Howard for lying to him about an affair.

• Long affair with another journalist which had resulted in two terminated pregnancies but was forgiven by his wife.

• Referring to black people as “picanninies” with “watermelon smiles” but then becoming Foreign Secretary as a reward for using that racist language.

• Lying in the ref about £350 million EU payments being for the NHS thereby helping to swing the referendum result- despite evidence that this was a deliberate knowing misrepresentation of payments and that he knew this all along (pointed out by Sir David Norgrove at the time).

• Being recorded saying that he would supply a journalist's private address to a fraudulent Uni mate so that the journalist could be beaten up ( Darius Guppy affair).

-Moving in whilst unmarried to 10 Downing Street with a young woman he had been having an adulterous relationship with, in the context of other similar adulterous relationships.Some of which occurred whilst his wife was having cancer treatment.

What has the Conservative party done to show him that any of this behaviour is unacceptable and unforgivable? If you behave like that and get the top job , aren't you entitled to believe that anything goes really.

So do the polls show that it could be up to what the Women Don't Knows decide to vote on the day?

No. I've been trying to make the point about this for a while

If the opposition parties could tactically capture most of them, it might be the end of Johnson..

Most of the doubt know women have historically tended to lean more to the left than the right, so yes, it's important.

Hence why I expect MN to be heavily targeted and there to be a lot of messaging to try and be woman friendly by all parties.

Carrie is important to his electoral strategy. The fact she isn't married to him won't bother younger women (which is where most of the don't know women lie)

I find it interesting that Johnson has scheduled a rare Parliamentary Saturday on exactly the same date as a massive People's Vote march. The words "flashpoint" comes to mind.

Regarding PR - @Mistigri, please note that I mean Permanent Residency, as in Indefinite Leave to Remain. Not just a standard residence permit.

It comes under Directive 2003/109/EC (easo.europa.eu/sites/default/files/public/Longtermresidency-EN.pdf).

@BigChocFrenzy You can be as sure as you like that it doesn't exist, but it would be nice if you weren't so rude before dismissing someone else's lived experience. I've had a fuckton more experience at being a non-EU national in the EU than most people here, but go ahead, dismiss me out of hand if you like. It's no skin off my nose

"The fact she isn't married to him won't bother younger women"

I agree
But dumping a wife with cervical cancer ?
Multiple infidelities also plays v badly on MN, so probably in any female demographic too.

However, as with Trump, when the political conviction is so strongly emotional / nationalist,
both men & women will completely ignore behaviour - private, blatant incompetence in office, openly racist etc - that would normally be political death for any candidate.

One thing I have noticed with my Poll data sheet trawling is the bigger the lead the Tories have the fewer the the women in the sample.

Stack I've said I was sure, but did ask for a link to show the contrary - which is not "rude" unless you are hypersensitive to being questioned.

I'm thinking of those UK expats who haven't been resident long enough - 5 or 7 years - to get permanent residency
According to reports these are the majority of UK expats, outside Spain

That's my lived experience in Germany, after asking at the Foreigner's Office in Germany
and the experience of several acquaintances here who have been told they won't have FOM,
that they will only retain the most basic rights

Those who are on the German border. live in one country and work in another, who have been told they probably can't continue like that

Those who enquired officially in Frankfurt about the validity of their professional qualifications after No Deal and were told that noone knows

Leo Varadkar on his feet in the Dail saying not to believe anonymous stories but then says that the problem with the UKs proposal is taking NI out of the customs union when the people of NI want to stay in,
Definitely leaving way open for an NI only backstop that can be unilaterally exited with proper Good Friday consent.

A project Manager friend working for a German tech firm has just obtained his German citizenship - he has several years residence.

He applied because his employer expressed concern that he might no longer be able to supervise those parts of his projects in other E27 countries,
that he might have problems with health insurance
and he was worried about his future career prospects as a non-EU citizen

Having theoretical rights doesn't help if employers etc are dubious

Only 2 Brits I know in Germany have permanent residence
... because Germany hasn't given such status to EU citizens since about 2000
... and even they will have to reapply, since they were told it may no longer be valid.

In Germany, we all have to wait until Brexit has actually happened, before we can apply for permanent residence

The govt has said we can all stay, but there is great uncertainty about the conditions

If the UK does not continue the S1 scheme for repaying healthcare for UK state pensioners,
then many British pensioners without private insurance will probably have to return to the UK

I'm very lucky to be self-supporting and have worldwide private insurance;
however some elder expats here are very worried, because they switched to the S1 scheme

The EU suggestion of both communities having their say is excellent

Giving the DUP a veto would not be acceptable to Ireland or to the NI nationalist community.

However, any changes would have to be drafted in legal text, then studied by the Commission, the UK and the E27 govts, then revised, then the final version approved by them all plus the EP

In fact, we don't even know if the basic UK proposal is in legal text at all - I read it is not; that it is just a paper for discussion

I don't see how all this work can be done by 31 October, so an extension of some sort would be needed.

More to the point, I'm very dubious whether any of these suggestions are serious,
or just part of the avoiding blame game

The EU suggestion of both communities having their say is excellent

I agree, but will the DUP and Brexit Ultras go for it? Even if BJ accepts it and a revised WA passes with some Labour support, if the DUP and Brexit Ultras don’t, it will be a massive problem for the Tories.... Expect a chorus of
“betrayal” to arise!

Also, although she “lost”, she did increase the Tories vote share by nearly 6%!

Which really does suggest a hung parliament could become the norm.

trying to game reality rarely works. It has a nasty way of correcting the universe. Just look how it turned out for the geocentric-supporters in the end.

By the same token, proportional representation should be the reality of multiparty politics. And if the established players won't bend to that (cf 2011) then reality will.

To all intents and purposes though, the backstop would be as good as permanent in that scenario, because it’s nigh on impossible to conceive that
Republicans would ever vote for its abolition. However, by providing a NI-led route to remove the backstop, it does nonetheless significantly weaken arguments against it!

The EU suggestion of both communities having their say is excellent . I agree, but will the DUP and Brexit Ultras go for it?

Does it matter ?

The much bigger picture here (hopefully the rest of the world will have twigged) is that after yesterdays frenetic pumping of "Bwah, bwah, nasty EU, look how they're so nasty, bwah, bwah" (and we'll put to one side the levels of unintelligence required to believe that and "we hold all the cards") the EU very calmly, and with no fuss or fanfare produces a counter suggestion which is not only workable, but hasn't seen the light of day until today.

That is some weapons-grade negotiation and control of the process there. And it's left the UK looking like the rank amateurs Boris and chums are. I know who I'd back if I had to.