Westminstenders: Pro Rogues

[RedToothBrush]

The Pro Rogues plan to prorogue again this week.

The Queen might be challenged to sack Johnson. Or he might be forced to extend.

It depends on which newspaper you read. Either way it strikes you that no one really knows what's going to happen...

Listening I doubt the EU would grant a long extension, unless there had been a GE and a stable new govt in power

They would not want a BJ govt wrecking their budget discussions from April onwards.

BigChocFrenzy I’m pretty sure John Majors was longer.

ImNotYourGranny But what good did it do, other governments have done it before and as long, it just seemed they had to get back for Brexit and nothing’s changed,

On one level, you’re right... they’ve not done a great deal of substance.... But has BJ got away with it, it would have given him the green light to prorogue again for the couple of weeks after the EU summit so Parliament couldn’t challenge or oust him as he sought to leave with no Deal...

@Hester54 - John Major prorogued for 3 weeks rather than 5 in 1997.

Hester

It was planned to be the longest since the 1930s.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ProrogationinntheUniteddKingdom

Hester54 Major's prorogation in 1997 was 34 days. It included a period when Parliament would have had to be suspended due to a GE. Crucially there were voices back then saying he did it to avoid an enquiry into cash for questions, so may also have been dodgy af. But if you remove the GE related prorogation, its length was 19 days. So not as long as BJ tried for.

In other news, whataboutery doesn't work on these threads.

Funny how the No Dealers can't keep up with No 10 who suddenly don't seem to want No Deal after all...poor little mites
No other country is hearing the news that it is the EU who has 'torpedoed the GFA'. How our press can get away with continuously citing "a govt source" and not have to explain it's Cummings every time

A French perspective.

And how, when reality hit, would he avoid the blame as he did it before it was necessary and of his own volition? After the first person dies due to lack of medication he is going to be asked questions he cannot answer, hopefully in a court of law.

This is the drum I've been banging for a while: that BoZo can't avoid blame if he actively chooses to no deal; there'll be no 'the nasty EU gave us no choice' defence. He needs to avoid blame to win a GE, which would take place 5 weeks after he crashes out (assuming VoNC happening immediately). If he pulls us out unilaterally, it's ALL on his shoulders. It would be political suicide (but better than dying in a ditch?!).

Sorry to hear about your problems, Song. Can you throw him out?

I thought it was illegal BCF? I mean I know it was only an 'in theory' sort of law because they never put in a revoke clause and no deal is the default - but I'm sure parliament has voted time and again that no deal is illegal - or at least that it cannot legally happen (if that makes a difference - law terminology being very specific and not my forte).
So therefore choosing it early - rather than just accidentally doing it (even if this was purposefully done by running the clock down) - is a different kettle of fish.

mauvaise volonté

says it all really

I remember that Phil Syrpis tweet!

Interesting to remember that Johnson's backing of Leave was too successful! He backed Leave to narrowly lose and gain from it as being Tory uniter! Cummings Vote Leave shouldn't have won. What have Johnson/Cummings learnt from this? What is their aim? Is it just to take us to the brink of No Deal? "We were thwarted by the anti democracy remain parliament (and their international backers)!" They want to win a general election majority, to do what they like about Brexit, at their leisure? But what will that be? What will they do after the GE?

Of course, they could have found a way around the Benn Act to crash us out on 31st October after all.....

On a more cynical note, what are the markets doing, and what's the intent.

The only way to make a serious load of filthy lucre, is to game the markets by fooling them that you are going to Zig, when you actually Zag.

If the markets are expecting a no deal, then there's no point in no dealing.

If the markets are expecting an extension, then there's everything to play for to avoid an extension.

What's the 3-4 week futures market like at the moment. Particularly in Sterling and Sterling priced stocks ?

pretzels I think - but I'm not sure - that the terms of the extension, which are an international agreement,
are that the extension is for a fixed period
So international law, not a UK law

However, I hope this is part of what the Rebel Alliance did with the extra time:

checked if they needed to pass any bills to prevent BJ taking us out early

and also checked to see if any bill could prevent No Deal even if time runs out - afaik that can only be a Revoke clause to take effect shortly before.

DG The hedge-funders have been making hundreds of millions, maybe billions, since the ref,
with every twist in this Tory psychodrama
e.g. Crispin Odey

So they win, whatever happens
It just depends on how big the windfalls

NI SoS again warning against what No 10 is proposing:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/08/brexit-lates-news-boris-johnons-dominic-cummings-accused-of-being-source-of-unofficial-no-10-threat-to-retaliate-against-eu-countries-that-back-extension-live-news?page=with:block-5d9c6c828f084ab841734b62#block-5d9c6c828f084ab841734b62

Northern Ireland secretary says plan floated by No 10 source to withdraw EU security cooperation 'unacceptable'

This is from Julian Smith, the Northern Ireland secretary.
He is rejecting one of the key proposals in the unofficial No 10 briefing given to the Spectator

Just saw this; dare say it'll only be a short term loss though:-

Sorry. Should have put up a warning for that picture.

Idly speculating, but subject to John Bercow, could another party bring back the May withdrawal agreement and get it passed, while BJ is ramping up his threats of no deal?

I.e. we leave by 31st, with a deal, but (in BJ's mind) a sub-optimal deal passed by the Labour Party... The ERG would obviously vote against, but there might be enough labour votes to pass it if they get really scared that the alternative is no deal.

Yup all about an election not only interested in making sure neither extending after 31st or revoking both of these scenarios make winning an election difficult. They both take 10 to 12 % off their polling figures yet Labours polling remains stable according to the data tables in that ComRes poll seen earlier today.

Mumsnet HQ! My sent messages still aren't deleting!!!

Ahhh! Stop posting pictures of Crispin Odey! One is more than enough!!!

You really are forcing us to see Odey's very ugly mug

Well, at least if there are food shortages we know who to start with.

Well, at least if there are food shortages we know who to start with.

"Everybody will get the food they need ...."