Westminstenders: Pro Rogues

[RedToothBrush]

The Pro Rogues plan to prorogue again this week.

The Queen might be challenged to sack Johnson. Or he might be forced to extend.

It depends on which newspaper you read. Either way it strikes you that no one really knows what's going to happen...

Question:
If they prorogue today, and Parliament is closed, can he unilaterally tell the Eu that negotiations are not going anywhere and we’re leaving tomorrow? What’s the extension agreement saying?

Songsofexperience I'm so sorry you are going through all that 💐
Your OH sounds a nasty bastard

Just for interest, what real difference did the court case victory make, the MPs had to get back to work, nothing has happened since they’ve been back, what was the point ?

Like Badkitten and Pretzels I’d be really grateful if someone could explain why the sudden talk of crashing out today. I’ve obviously missed something. Apologies for asking for a recap but life just will not let me properly follow these threads now.

That’s from the institute of government...
If the UK and EU ratify the Withdrawal Agreement before 31 October, then the UK would leave the EU on the first day of the following month. The UK could also decide to leave the EU without a deal.

I want to know if the U.K. is parliament or the Pm...

Songs sorry to hear you have so much horrid stuff to put up with at home.

Just for interest, what real difference did the court case victory make, the MPs had to get back to work, nothing has happened since they’ve been back, what was the point ?

It wasn't just about what's going on now. It set a precedent for all future governments going forward. It's now a matter of law that governments cannot prorogue parliament as a means of bypassing parliament.

ImNotYourGranny But what good did it do, other governments have done it before and as long, it just seemed they had to get back for Brexit and nothing’s changed,

I think that’d be a perfect way for bj to achieve all he needs to achieve. Crash out. Not contravene the Benn bill (yes the principle is contravened, but as it happens before the 17th it’s not technically defiant?). Go to a GE playing the Hulk part.
Get a 40% majority (of idiots) before shit hits the fan.

Tell m I’m wrong, please tell me I’m wrong

From my FB feed
because the people who are driving Brexit are the type who deny the use of infrastructure and past protections

On Parliament tv - there's lots scheduled in for today and then the rest of the week is empty.

I love that Day in the Life - Listening.

Wish Boris the Animal would march off in the direction of that ditch he dug for himself. I will gladly go and fill it in when he climbs in!

This is scary prescient, from July. Chimes well with what people here have considered the end game for BJ.

Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
2 months ago, 13 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter

This may well be nonsense (it was ever thus...); but PM Johnson seems to have a plan. It gives me no pleasure to say this, but it will be difficult to stop. 1/
The plan is not what some might expect. He is more interested in power than in Brexit. His aim (so I argue here) is to fight, and win, a GE, and to obtain a mandate for the next five years. 2/
The way he approaches Brexit should not be seen as cakeist and naive. In policy terms it is: but the thing is that his Brexit plan is not intended to succeed. Instead, it is only intended to create the narrative around which a GE can be won. 3/
First, he will go 'our EU friends', appealing to their economic self-interest, demanding things he knows he cannot get. He will present himself as a 'can-do dealer'... whose plan has only been thwarted by intransigence in Brussels. 4/
Watch for the sharp shift in tone (which will come when the time is judged to be right). Erstwhile friends in the EU will become public enemy number one. The UK will be strong and confident. In extremis, we go it alone, and leave without a deal. 5/
But the plan is not to leave without a deal in October. That, as he knows, would cause huge disruption, and would not augur well for him as PM. The plan is to be ready to leave... but then to be thwarted by public enemy number two, the remainer Parliament. 6/
He will provoke the moderate Tories. He probably knows that they require quite a lot of provoking. He will not seek to undermine the confidence of the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. But he will starve the Brexit Party of political space. 7/
He wants to be able to fight a general election, as the man who is standing up for the British people; against the twin evils of the EU and the remain establishment. Vote Leave (and Dom Cummings) have, remember, done this unexpectedly successfully once before. 8/
To win, he needs to neuter the Brexit Party (I suspect that the jury is out on whether to offer some sort of pact or to opt for a more aggressive strategy), and bank on the fact that the 'remain' opposition will remain disunited. 9/
All this points, as I said a couple of days ago, to an Autumn general election. It is consistent with the UK's inability to concretise Brexit - both his 'new deal' and his 'no deal' will remain stubbornly undefined until after the GE.
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Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
Let me join the mugs' prediction game. My best guess is that we are heading towards an autumn general election. A thread on why. 1/

132
11:11 PM - Jul 23, 2019
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10/
He has a good chance of success. The difficult task of delivering Brexit is deferred to the far side of a general election... and by then, who knows what the options may be. He can cross that bridge when he comes to it. 11/
The easiest way to stop this plan is to prevent him from winning the GE. That depends on the opposition working together. Looking at the relationships between Corbyn, Sturgeon, Swinson and Lucas; Johnson might well calculate that he has nothing to fear. 12/12

"But what good did it do, other governments have done it before and as lonG"

WRONG

hester54 Other govts have NOT prorogued for 5 weeks
The courts stopped this govt from doing so and hence stopped future govts

Is it technically compliant with the Benn bill or not? we keep being told that the bill is watertight, so surely they would have seen that one coming

Songs I'm also sorry to hear about problems at home. 

The foreword to that government no deal document is shockingly disingenuous. 😡 But the country don't know or care.

The Prime Minster grossly exaggerating the impact of the EU into our domestic affairs. For example, giving the entirely misleading impression the EU has controlled our Education policy. Oh really? Yeah right- so the current system isn't entirely down to the U.K. government? Ridiculous.How dare he imply it is the EU that controls education. It's Gove and his department that trashed our education system and the Tories who won't fund it.

The UK could also decide to leave the EU without a deal.

But is that on any day of their choosing? Or at the end of the extension? Or the first day of the following month? That sentence - following on from the one about what happens in the event of a deal is about as clear as mud.

And surely - if no deal is deemed illegal in UK law (which I think it is) then choosing to do it early constitutes breaking the law. It's one thing to do it by accident, it's quite another to spring it on us out of the blue before it had to happen.
And how, when reality hit, would he avoid the blame as he did it before it was necessary and of his own volition? After the first person dies due to lack of medication he is going to be asked questions he cannot answer, hopefully in a court of law.

Mship That's long been my opinion too

A prolonged GNU before a GE to hold a PV before any GE is just a fantasy

Any GNU before a GE could only hold together for a few days
The various parties are positioning themselves for a GE and Labour additionally for the next leader after Corbyn
This makes compromise v difficult to do anything other than to call a GE at a time less convenient to BJ

If we indeed get only a 31 November extension,
then that would almost certainly mean that any GE would happen after No Deal - unless either the WA is passed first OR the GNU is able to obtain a longer extension, just to ensure the GE is first.

So a GNU is only likely to happen
either with a December / January extension - likely just for one day, to call a GE and hope for a new govt & policy before Brexit -
or after a hung Parliament

Just for interest, what real difference did the court case victory make, the MPs had to get back to work, nothing has happened since they’ve been back, what was the point ?

Parliament isn't just the House of Commons, but all the mechanisms that hang off it - which prorogation also stopped. So all the "clever" newspapers that ran pictures of the half empty chamber making the same point were really saying what utter morons they are.

A few bills were completed (including the Domestic Violence Bill) and the select committees could continue working - as could the house of Lords.

Many, many years ago, A&E departments had a poster, which was a cutaway of all the work that goes on behind the scenes, and the idiot question: "Why the delay, seems quiet tonight".

There could be a similar one for parliament.

"if no deal is deemed illegal in UK law"

pretzels afaik it isn't

That would take a bill to be passed requiring the PM to Revoke on X days before the end of any extension
No sign of that being possible to pass

If the HoC / PM don't agree on the WA (or Revoke) before the EU eventually stops extending, then No Deal is what happens automatically

I do not want another short extension
they play into the "project fear" / "the EU need us" mindset
it either has to be ; no deal / revoke / LONG extension
but anything less than 9 months will destroy the UK
and anything more than 9 days will piss the EU off much too much

So why the Corbyn fear ?

And of course if BJ wins a working majority at the GE, he can repeal any bill he wants and then leave

Even if Revoke had happened, e.g. by a court-appointed representative,
if BJ then wins an HoC majority, he can Invoke again and leave immediately

• the 2 years is a limit, not a required time.

Is it technically compliant with the Benn bill or not? we keep being told that the bill is watertight, so surely they would have seen that one coming

Cummings did say to expect to spend the second part of October in court - so it might be something the executive would try in the expectation it would be challenged in court. Then as the No10 source told James Forsyth UK will either leave EU or there will be some kind of extension and GE.

I think it is important to take what Downing St says seriously. They do signal their plans - it's just so mixed up with feints and misdirection that it's hard to distinguish signal and noise.