Westminstenders: Pro Rogues

[RedToothBrush]

The Pro Rogues plan to prorogue again this week.

The Queen might be challenged to sack Johnson. Or he might be forced to extend.

It depends on which newspaper you read. Either way it strikes you that no one really knows what's going to happen...

Multiple reports that the UK govt is secretly making contingency preparations to slaughter almost all of Northern Ireland’s dairy cattle herd in the case of a no deal Brexit.

Looking on Twitter, everyone is linking to a BBC article from 2 months ago, so I’m not sure this is new news...

The emotion in that NI article is what Remain should've been tapping into during their campaign. Stories that strike a chord.

I recently re-read all the Terry Pratchett Discworld novels and was struck his powerful message that stories shape us, define what it is to be human, yet have power and life of their own independent of the teller. It resonated with the current situation, and I feel oddly that maybe there's some hope out there. That we could be using language and stories to cut through the lies, not by reacting to the falsehoods but by constructing positive narratives, based on real people, trying to connect, and giving a face to the faceless crowd.

I still believe most people are fundamentally ok. But it's hard to back down from something you believe in and that is constantly reinforced both by your own 'side' and by attacks from the other 'side' (because of course they're attacking us, they feel threatened by us, because we're right). We need to connect as people before there can be any real dialogue. Stories, human interest, that's the key.

Regarding the Art 50(1) requirements agree with redavocado that that ship has sailed because, following Miller 1, Parliamentary approval was sought and given for the Art 50 notification.

In relation to any breach of the Benn Act the remedy will be in domestic law. The Scottish court has today treated the reassurances given as to the PM’s intentions as amounting to undertakings to the Court, so if he backtracks on them then (subject to anything which may happen on appeal) one can expect an urgent application back to Court ahead of 31/10.

I am quietly confident Johnson will scream, kick, posture...and ask for an extension.

The EU will grant it in exchange for the promise of a General Election (which Johnson wants, so they can actually believe he will keep it). They will also do it to protect Ireland: it's just damage limitation for them, at this stage.

I have no idea what will happen at the GE.

I have to go to Republic of Ireland in November.
Its the Common travel area so it should be fine
but I'm not looking forward to driving "the only English car in the village"
or dealing with jobsworths coming back on the ferry.

I reckon the GE will swing on how powerful (or, conversely, insipid) the literature / messages are from the remain parties. They need to learn from the remain campaign that they need to beat a very loud drum to get a message across, being lacklustre hands victory elsewhere.

As an English person in Ireland with an English registered car you will not face any hostility.

One narrative we should actually push and push and then push harder is that changing our mind is not 'surrendering'. It is the greatest single British victory in the entire history of Britain

David Cameron opened the door to facism, vulture capitalists and right wing extremists sought to destroy us for their own end. A man with no respect for the law, no moral compass and no conscience took the highest office in the land and held us all to ransom to get what he wanted. And we stopped them.

We stopped them by using the law, by the opposition discovering archaic conventions to take control of parliament, by peacefully protesting, by signing petitions, by ordinary people crowdfunding to access justice and spread the truth. We kept on going. We laughed in the darkness. We didn't give in when the media silenced us or the right wing thugs threatened us. We pulled out every stop to protect our democracy and we fought the bastards back.

That is the remainer narrative.

Inniu
I know I'll be safe in the vast bulk of places - I'll just get teased a LOT (as I was last time) ... not too sure about some of the bits of Leitrim though

Heidi Allen has just been announced as an LD MP on their Facebook members' page.

MShip is right about the power of personal stories, though.

If you can link them back to the main arc, even more powerful.

Big, general narrative important - but it is local, particular, intimate, resonant that really works.

Heidi Allen has just been announced as an LD MP on their Facebook members' page.

well ... hands up anyone else who thought she already was one? (I'm guessing it was really Sarah Wollaston who already converted?) There can't be many ChUKers left now, they should probably give up the ghost.

So I read nearly all the messages on here, and try to take everything on board. But I still don't know what Johnson thinks he can do with a No Deal Brexit on October 31st. Or indeed any time. I know the effects might not be shown for 6(?) months or so. Although some will immediately. But he intends to No Deal us and then immediately have a general election which he surely intends to get a good majority. And then what? I still don't understand how anyone not off their head bonkers would want to be PM for any length of time after No Deal. I've hardly seen any speculation about it.

I don't say No Deal won't happe, but even if they think they can do the bigliest deal with the USA ever.... ?

It's been pending for ages, hasn't it?

The thing is, if we hang on until the brink and only VoNC on 1/11 or maybe 04/11, after a no deal, then there's 5 weeks before a GE, taking us to 9-12/12.

There will be quite a few issues by that point, particularly in relation to people's Christmas prep. I've no idea how BoZo will manage to sell that as somebody else's fault.

tobee I wonder the same myself. I conclude that he is either off his head bonkers or evil incarnate

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/how-number-10-view-the-state-of-the-negotiations/

No. 10 ‘source’ speaks again.

Oh dear Queen.

Don't know whether to laugh in despair or run around screaming really.

The threads move so quickly, I can't remember which one is current!

Anyway, just wondered why there is so much angst now. Surely UK could have left already with no deal surely if they were confident that it would be fine?

But no... Three + years later and they haven't got the cojones to just go!

I do understand that the Commons have objected to No Deal, but what do they actually want now? It is a total shame for everyone that no one can make a decision about what they really want. Does anyone actually know what they want now in the negotiations? I don't.

We need a Led by Donkeys equivalent to publicize the good things about staying close to the EU, from the perspective of individuals. Note I don't say Remain, because I think many on both sides would accept a soft Brexit, and that word is very polarising. But one or two lines on a billboard with a photo and the EU stars.

Like a small business owner, who can afford to hire an assistant because she can expand her business to sell without tariffs or paperwork to 27 other countries. Or the chef who spent a year training in France without needing a visa and opened a restaurant using local British produce. The farmers who can afford to go organic or try new breeds of pigs because of EU subsidies. The retired folks who can travel without needing to pay through the nose for private insurance cover because they have an EHIC.

Re the NI dairy industry.

It's being covered in the Irish press, eg www.thejournal.ie/northern-ireland-dairy-industry-no-deal-brexit-4840591-Oct2019/

I would think it better suits BoZo’s agenda for an autumn election if we don’t leave on 31/10 than if we leave without a deal - provided not leaving is seen by enough of the electorate as Not His Fault.

That spectator article is just pure number 10 propaganda, with them setting up the fall guys.
It's so fucking disingenuous....

MShip. You are so right about stories having a life of their own. I love that reminder.

I’ve been feeling that I maybe should be hiding from all of this and pretending that it isn’t happening. Because it’s stressing me out and starting to affect my family. But on the other hand I’ve felt that talking about it and getting to the truth of what is happening feels powerful in a funny way.

And what you’ve said is exactly it. Our collective story, here, and the truth we spread will find a life of it’s own. It’s so important that we all talk about this.