Westminstenders: The Slow No

[RedToothBrush]

Have to make this quick.

Johnson has made an 'offer' to the EU. Let's stress this isn't a deal because they haven't agreed.

The EU have made kind noises about it but will say no thanks.

The UK are expecting this, and despite what's been said apparently are expecting more negotiation on this.

The DUP and the ERG seem to be on board with the proposal meaning in theory Johnson might have numbers to get through parliament. Except its not a deal so this is currently meaningless.

Parliament is prorogued again from next week with the Queen's Speech the following week.

Ghost Yes I’m sure that’s Rory’s thinking but I think there’s a fairly high chance of failure. Then what?

I also have been wondering what Johnson is up to. What about... according to the law, he requests, and is granted, an extension; but then we just leave anyway without using it? He pulls us out with no deal on 31st... Has the Benn Act got a proviso against that?

I hope I’m misunderstanding this.

I'm pretty sure legislation was put in place last time that meant whatever date was agreed with the EU was then automatically put into our legislation (so they then didn't have to keep amending the date on the original legislation each time). I might be misremembering, however, as I've slept since then.

I'm not sure you can then unilaterally decide that we've exited, as it doesn't 'match' what the legislation says about leaving (either by date or by the WA being approved).

And we can't override the EU legislation anyway, just by say so, which would state X date (or the calendar month after the WA is agreed) as the leaving date.

Yes I’m sure that’s Rory’s thinking but I think there’s a fairly high chance of failure. Then what?

Strictly Come Dancing. Or Facebook.

Wrt to Brexit I think there will now be an extenstion and the Tories are then screwed.

I just hope that Johnson fails in whatever stunt he's trying to pull. He hasn't as PM had the same 'success' he had as London Mayor.

the Tories are then screwed.

Far too soon to write their obituary. We had the one for Theresa May's Premiership prepared after the 2017 election but it still took two years to die.

This will be the second time a Tory PM has promised Brexit and failed to deliver. May was never consider a Brexiteer. Johnson is. If a Tory Brexiteer cannot deliver on their promise then the Brexit Party will clean up. The only thing that can save the Tories is the maligned "small c" Conservatives reclaiming their party.

Even though the polls aren't being entirely consistent, there is a massive loss of CON votes to BXP if there is a GE after an extension. White I'm taking polls with a pinch of salt in general, I do think this is likely to be true. It's how it affects seat numbers which will be interesting.

Yes I’m sure that’s Rory’s thinking but I think there’s a fairly high chance of failure. Then what?

Maximise his profile until the Tories disintegrate into factions as a result of Brexit turmoil in the coming months, ensuring he is in pole position to lead a moderate centre-right party out of the ashes of the Tory Party.

How people will vote, is going to be hard to predict. The Brexit party might clean up, but they might just split the Tory vote. Then we need to see how many kicked out of the party stand as Independents. Some were well regarded as MPs. Then again, Corbyn is good at the hustings - will it work for him next time?

A lot of people are thoroughly sick of austerity, and want Brexit done, in the sense of "shut up about Brexit and tackle our real problems", so Johnson's "failure" might not get him the electoral traction he wants. Also, with a slender majority, he could lose his seat - unless he jumps ship to a safer seat.

What we can hope for is BXP taking the CON vote to the extent that another party / independent actually wins the seat.

It'll be 'interesting' to see what happens! (If nerve-wracking!)

I suspect part of the reason Stewart won't contest Penrith and the Border is because he would lose. Stewart has a high profile in the area due to issues such as flooding in recent years, however it is also true blue constituency and I think voters would pick party over personality.

Luciana Berger and Wavertree is a similar proposition. I think MP's make a judgement call and scarper if their ego is likely to get bruised.

Maybe its me as I haven't had chance to read a lot over the last week, but isn't the BXP awfully quiet at the moment ? Keeping their powder dry or a sign of back room negotiations and machinations ?

There's an episode of Yes Minister where Jim Hacker has to inform the Prime Minister of some misdoings so he can cover his back. He does it in a way so 'the Prime Minister doesn't hear it'. - "the Rhodesia defence"

Farage is still supporting no deal usually via the Torygraph.

R4 World Tonight last night, ERG Ultra-Spartan Daniel Kawczynski confirms he's been on the phone to the Polish govt. urging them to veto an extension.

R4 World Tonight last night, ERG Ultra-Spartan Daniel Kawczynski confirms he's been on the phone to the Polish govt. urging them to veto an extension.

We're taking back control to give it to Poland? Who knew [shrug]

It's rather unedifying begging / attempting to bribe other countries for a veto, isn't it?

And clearly shows that 'our preferred option is a deal' is utter fucking bullshit.

But how can they blame anybody else (remainers or the EU) for no deal and its effects when they're the ones blatantly (attempting to, at this stage) engineering it to happen?

It smacks of desperation, somewhat. Whoever BoZo has tied his train too, I'm thinking that they're really not very nice people, as he appears to be running scared of them. As we said before, that ditch may not be exactly figuratively speaking, depending on how nasty they and their henchmen are!

Kawczynski might be laughing on the other side of his face when the pitchfork wielding Shropshire mob comes for him to send him back where he came from.

Daniel Kawczynski confirms he's been on the phone to the Polish govt. urging them to veto an extension.

I repeat the sentiment of my post earlier. Isn't this kind of shabby game playing a question of the ends not justifying the means.

If something is worth doing a decent statesman should be able to win all of Parliament and the 48%+ around by skilled oration and planned explanation of the tangible benefits. A retrospectively imposed policy achieved by desperate minority game playing is a fragile pyrrhic victory.

Poland and Hungary under their present far-right Christian Nationalist regimes are net recipients of EU funds who flout the rules but still need the money. The rest of the EU will not take kindly to them pushing out a net contributror leaving the likes of Germany, France, Netherlands etc to foot the bill.

Good point Mockers hopefully Hungary and Poland know which side their bread is buttered (unlike us).

Didn't we (well, Farage) try to persuade Hungary last time too?

voila212
Do ye honestly think Boris will look for an extension if their is no deal by the 19th or is this a cunning step in a bigger plan. I just feel he is up to something

Yes, my DH theory is that the loop hole is that Boris has asked for extension but has no intention of using it. That just by asking for one he is following the law.

Farage tweeted 'doubt that Hungary will veto the UK’s extension and risk huge EU payments into their country each year. Nearly 3% of their economy is net EU spending.'
I agree though any scam Boris is planning just seems very sneaky. Why are the opposition so quiet?

I also wonder if BJ's "loophole" is to ask for the extension and even if the bribes to Hungary and Poland fail to ensure it is vetoed it is given anyway, just "leave" anyway

The UK Government has already proven that it doesn't give a fuck about international law anyway with its attitude towards the GFA. It's also already said that it is going to set all tariffs to zero initially in the even if No Deal. So it can just go on pretending that nothing has changed - and put the onus on to the EU to implement the consequences of No Deal . And tie up the WTO and international courts for years to come.