Westminstenders: The Slow No

[RedToothBrush]

Have to make this quick.

Johnson has made an 'offer' to the EU. Let's stress this isn't a deal because they haven't agreed.

The EU have made kind noises about it but will say no thanks.

The UK are expecting this, and despite what's been said apparently are expecting more negotiation on this.

The DUP and the ERG seem to be on board with the proposal meaning in theory Johnson might have numbers to get through parliament. Except its not a deal so this is currently meaningless.

Parliament is prorogued again from next week with the Queen's Speech the following week.

If something is worth doing a decent statesman should be able to win all of Parliament and the 48%+ around by skilled oration and planned explanation of the tangible benefits.

I agree here. Johnson's victory is likely to be Pyrrhic, and when the Leavers turn against the architects of the hard Brexit, it could get nasty for him and his cronies.

On a lighter note....here is Adam Fleming's ASMR Brexitcast, describing the proposals. It's probably about the only bit of humour you can get out of them

https://twitter.com/BBCSounds/status/1180377078862008321/video/1

Benn Act says PM must "seek to obtain an extension," which is legalese for no effing about. An extension thus obtained is real. Govt can then go to the polls claiming that we've left but only a resulting majority can give effect to this by telling EU to effoff. Lady Hale and her spider familiar may take a view on that.

Farage tried with Hungary before lobbying and trying to make sure they vetoed an extension past the original 29 March deadline. So ironic that he was trying invoking the forrrin interference he purports to abhor unless its Trump of course.

But no one listened to Farage, he had, and has, nothing to offer of course.

and when the Leavers turn against the architects of the hard Brexit, it could get nasty for him and his cronies.

I wish I could agree with this but I don't. The Leavers I know won't ever turn. They will say that inevitable, downturn, shortages , recession " would have happened anyway".

Or blame remainers, mps, EU, Ireland etc......everything but Brexit.

Adam Boulton: The Party Conferences gave us nothing but fantasy politics

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-party-conferences-gave-us-nothing-but-brexit-fantasy-politics-11827480

"It is entirely possible that the real plan is to antagonise the EU so much that they refuse to grant the UK an extension of membership beyond October. "

"Boris has asked for extension but has no intention of using it"

BJ doesn't choose:
Any extension offered by the EU is given to MPs to vote on

Questions are:

• Once an extension is in place, can the UK unilaterally leave before the end of it ?
  Depends on the terms of the extension, which would be an international agreement

• If the UK can do so, can the PM decide this without Parliament ?
  Might end up in the courts ?

A long extension would be v dangerous for the EU, because there would be a significant risk of the UK deliberately wrecking EU business,
especially - but not only - the EU 7-year budget discussions.

imo, the extension limit is probably not just end of June 2020 for that, but end March,
to allow long enough for the E27 to debate and horse-trade without the UK blocking everything

Charles Grant@CER_Grant

Yes, EU officials have looked ahead to see what damage an uncooperative UK could do.

The answer - not much before June when EU must agree on next MFF (7 years of budgets) which requires unanimity.

So, no extension beyond June.

I think leavers will say all sorts of stuff, what they won’t do is get out on the streets, except for the limited number of usual suspects, until there are food and medicine shortages, and they will then be vastly outnumbered by the many who don’t give a monkey’s about Brexit but are pissed off with Govt. Not good for whoever is in power at the time.

When will we have a definite fuck off from the rest of the EU?

"When will we have a definite fuck off from the rest of the EU?"

Never .... unless Hungary or Poland have been persuaded by BJ / Trump to veto

The Uk will be forced to choose between extending and jumping over the cliff - EU don't want the blame for pushing us over
They will keep politely saying the terms are not acceptable in the current form, but that negotiations should continue

... but that's just this next extension.

Unless the UK looks like being on best behaviour, the EU will probably want us out before the 7-year budget discussions & decisions

Sorry, I meant a definite fuck off to the current offerings? Everything has been very polite so far. I might have missed something though.

However, the EU can reasonably bet that this Parliament can't last beyond March

If a GE puts a new UK govt in place, with safe sane majority, even as a coalition, then the EU would offer a long extension and keep extending for years if need be

Bercow The EU has said the current proposals are not acceptable
The EP has said that, Ireland has, various EU officials

However, noone has said that talks should stop - mainly to avoid being seen to push the UK over the cliff
So I don't expect any fuck off statement

Thanks. I thought I must be missing something. I knew they'd all said unacceptable but wondered if I'd missed something.

Back to recentish topic of pro-Brexit newspaper proprietors. Today’s FT has an interview with DM editor Geordie Greig - “soft conservative” - generally softened DM’s tone, to Rothermere’s relief - but “anything but Corbyn” “We’re going to support Boris if he does call an election … After Brexit, I think Boris will seem quite a centrist figure” - the Telegraph has gone too far - but the Mail would back No Deal in a second referendum - jokes about the Mail’s owners not paying tax. So not much to be hoped for there then.

Cummings is a small-town bookie who's gone to Las Vegas convinced he can beat the house. He will walk out of the casino shoeless if not shirtless.

What I’m finding unnerving at the moment is the fact that so little is being covered and reported anywhere.

Big stories in the guardian are totally missing from the BBC. Seems to be more up to date stuff on Radio 4.

Even Red Tooth Brush has gone quiet. What’s going on? Is politics usually this invisible? Is the media being silenced?

Dusty RTB has a life to attend to and doesnt get paid for the service that she provides, arguably better than the MSM, not that I agree with her all the time but for the most part I understand her points

BCF on the other hand has agreed with me and I with her more bloody often than not lately, that worries me

Just thinking ahead to the 7 year budget; wouldn't they rather do that after the worst of a No Deal Brexit has been felt? Trying to budget with a disintegrating democracy on the doorstep needing aid/refugees flying through and potential terrorism increases isn't going to be an easy task and will require certain budgets. Surely better to have that out of the way?

I understand that RTB has a real life and doesn’t get paid for this. Sorry. I meant that it worries me that she is less vocal than before - because maybe even she can’t understand what is going on at the moment.

Can anyone anywhere? The newspapers seem useless at the moment. It literally feels as though No one knows what is going on.

Heartbreaking article in Irish Times about the children who died in the Troubles.

I'm finding Brexit harder and harder. Cannot avoid the conclusion that Johnson and vast majority of Brexiteers are either completely ignorant or deeply callous that they continue to pursue an agenda that could result in kicking things off in NI again.

I know what you mean Dusty01. After the speed of the last few threads, this one is very slow and it's unnerving.