Westminstenders: The Slow No

[RedToothBrush]

Have to make this quick.

Johnson has made an 'offer' to the EU. Let's stress this isn't a deal because they haven't agreed.

The EU have made kind noises about it but will say no thanks.

The UK are expecting this, and despite what's been said apparently are expecting more negotiation on this.

The DUP and the ERG seem to be on board with the proposal meaning in theory Johnson might have numbers to get through parliament. Except its not a deal so this is currently meaningless.

Parliament is prorogued again from next week with the Queen's Speech the following week.

Look at what Trump did wrt Ukraine & his 2020 rival Biden, hundreds of millions offered as a bung

Then he in public asked China to go after Biden

If Trump really wants No Deal, then he can promise Hungary something
The only question is whether he cba, or thinks BJ can handle it himself.

Maugham seems to think BJ & the Tories have more scruples than Trump & the GOP

Also, he has no way to stop Trump or Putin independently taking a hand, without BJ asking

Wouldn't the EU look very negatively at a memberstae basically having their vote bought?

Alberto Nardelli✔@AlbertoNardelli

NEW: "... Member States agreed that the UK proposals do not provide a basis for concluding an agreement"

European Commission Spokesperson on today’s Brexit talks:

"Wouldn't the EU look very negatively at a memberstae basically having their vote bought?"

That's probably the only thing that stopped the veto back in April

Article 7 against Hungary has already commenced, because of what Orbán is doing in his own country
He doesn't need more aggro - or he might just want to strike a defiant blow

Also, it depends how big the bung is - and whether it is blatant, as Trump seems to do
Punishing them for doing Trump a favour could escalate existing problems with him

With Putin, it could be well-hidden, ot just a favour in the bank

So if Boris resigns and no one else can form a goverment does that lead to a GE in spite of the FTPA?

I think so.

No surprise, BJ proposal is dead

Matt Dathan@mattdathan

And the EU has rejected Britain's offer of negotiating through the weekend.

Chief UK negotiator David Frost had offered to stay in Brussels but EU said no, seeing it as a trap.

Talks are not in a great place.

Unless something changes we're heading for no deal, or delay.

Nick Gutteridge@nickgutteridge

Commission decision to issue an on the record statement about Brexit technical talks,
which confirms Barnier told ambassadors the UK’s plans ‘do not provide a basis for concluding an agreement’
is striking.

Not something done lightly
and a real sign of where negotiations are at.

@BigChocFrenzy
Oban has always fallen in behind the EU though hasn't he? What is the feeling in Europe re whether he will try and placate the EU?
I think the feeling up until now has been that Hungary wants to stay I. The EU?

Can't see Rory Stewart splitting the Remainer vote - he's always been adamantly pro-Leave.

I agree with Emily's analysis of the Indonesian mayoral vote.

It's definitely going to be a bit tough for some Conservative activists, though, because I'm quite sure some have convinced themselves there was a 'secret plan', which involved Rory Stewart taking charge after Johnson crashed the car.

They will have to look at their Party now and realise that what you see is what you get, there is no 'secret plan', the surface right-wing chaos masks deep right-wing chaos.

Tough times, I think.

WTF with 'Indonesian'?

Should be 'London'.

I really, really dislike autocorrect.

Yes, it's not "in spite of" the FTPA - it's part of it:

If a VoNC is passed and noone else can command a majority within 14 days,
then there is an automatic GE and Parliament is dissolved until then

Note:
if BJ resigns 18 /19 October, we have 12 days only, because otherwise Brexit will have happened automatically
In fact, only 8-9 days in practice - HMQ has to approve the new PM and BJ may go to court to stop this

Then the new PM has to request and receive an extension from the EU
(presumably they'll have made that decision at EUCO so Juncker can fire off an instant response)

Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

MrsL Hungary definitely wants to stay in the EU,
because they are dependent on EU subsidies and their mate Putin hasn't the cash to subsidise them

However, Hungary is defiant and does cock a snook when it can get away with it

e.g. with frequent savage anti-EU propoganda and adverts within Hungary from the govt
and ignoring EU demands to return to proper democracy

"Can't see Rory Stewart splitting the Remainer vote - he's always been adamantly pro-Leave."

No, he was a Tory Remainer

Only after the ref he said the result should be respected, but should be resolved in a way that did not hurt the country
He left it open specifically what to do, said it needed discussion between all sides.

I think Rory Stewart very explicitly argued for a soft Brexit. After the referendum, for sure.

Still, I can't quite see his voter base. It's a shame he's not standing as an Independent MP somewhere like Richmond or Uxbridge.

I can see a few of the Wimbledon Conservative vote going his way but you have to have been following Brexit to pick up on Rory Stewart & I just don't think he's going to teach a lot of voters - & he won't have the Party machine behind him to reach out beyond that.

Stewart will get a lot more publicity in the London Mayoralty election than he would ever get in another constituency in a GE (like Uxbridge lol), as an Indo.

That man is not an idiot. By any stretch of the imagination.

No. He isn't. Which makes it so interesting.

I'm guessing he must think leaving the Conservatives at this point is a Good Move. Which suggests all sorts of things. None of the particularly promising for the fate of democracy, I think.

Maybe I'm too bleak?

Remember that Ken Livingstone won as an independent in the first London Mayor elections in 2000, after the Labour Party overlooked him for Frank Dobson.

But the Tory Party also had problems with their candidate, having to replace Jeffrey Archer with Steven Norris so maybe not the best election to look at (or maybe it is )

Many Remainers would have no problems with a soft Leave, especially with a candidate who had a lot of other policies they liked

Stewart was expelled from the Tories, so that bit wasn't a choice

Chief UK negotiator David Frost had offered to stay in Brussels but EU said No

Surely he has a right to claim asylum.

Replying:

The Queen would normally ask a resigning PM to recommend a sucessor. BJ does not have to make a recommendation. If Queenie is thus dumped in the Constitutional shit, she will then most likely be advised by her private secretary to send for the leader of the official oppostion. But she will be mindful of when her grandfather ignored official advice and sent for Ramsay McDonald, with more seats, rather than the opposition leader from the previous plt, Squiffy Asquith.

I thought Stewart lost the Whip - I don't think he was expelled, BigChoc.

This is kind of completely off-subject - but also just funny.

Someone has unearthed Rory Stewart's letter to The Times, aged 12:

twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1169574356755931137?s=21

It's been great having Sadiq as Mayor.

I think it would have been hell going through the last few years - and particularly the last few months - with a less sympathetic Mayor.

And he has fought quite hard for London against all the cuts - and done that from a position that has been severely limited by the Conservative government.

But, honestly, I just can't imagine what it would have been like going through the Brexit attacks on democracy without a Mayor who is vocally speaking for many in London.