Westminstenders: The Slow No

[RedToothBrush]

Have to make this quick.

Johnson has made an 'offer' to the EU. Let's stress this isn't a deal because they haven't agreed.

The EU have made kind noises about it but will say no thanks.

The UK are expecting this, and despite what's been said apparently are expecting more negotiation on this.

The DUP and the ERG seem to be on board with the proposal meaning in theory Johnson might have numbers to get through parliament. Except its not a deal so this is currently meaningless.

Parliament is prorogued again from next week with the Queen's Speech the following week.

Parliament will vote on it, and probably accept it, especially if it is old May's old deal.

not that likely

He will then not need to extend a50.

True, but ...

At which point everybody will relax, a gen election will be called for sometime early November, but just at the last minute possible Johnson will say, no actually. Deal's off.

He can't. Once again, SCOTUK ruling reminded us (not made new law) that the Executive cannot overrule parliament. Not then. Not now. Not ever.

Part of the wider problem - not just Brexit - is the number of stupid and lazy people who don't seem to understand that the world not working the way they think it should isn't a sign of a conspiracy, or cover up, or anything else sinister, but simply a sign that they don't understand.

Bozo cannot call an election without 2/3 of parliament agreeing

any Independent / Libdem / SNP / remainer Labour MP would be kissing their career good bye (and their nice jobs after the HoC)

if they allowed a GE vote in October

The thing about London though is that there is another dimension to the remainer vote. It isn’t just the white middle class educated demographic in the West in communities with high numbers of EU residents. It is also the BME and other minority ethnic groups and their communities who have experienced the increase in racism and impact on students of not just the Brexit debate but home office policies going back a decade or more. Both revolted against Zac’s racism last time and I can’t see Rory undermining Sadiq’s appeal to that group.

Mayoral election isn't FPTP, it's a supplementary vote system.

Stewart will have understood that this improves the chances of an independent who can appeal to centrist and non-partisan voters. He does not have to win the first round as long as he finishes in the first two.

This is as close as it gets in the U.K. to a French-style two-round election ... and this will not have escaped Stewart's attention .

Mayoral election isn't FPTP, it's a supplementary vote system.

What blithering idiot set that up ?

And if Corbyn equally fails to back down, he would be equally culpable....

This is true - if there is another genuine candidate who has the support of a) the rebel tories, b) the lib dems c)SNP d) Plaid E) ChUK f) all the other independents and g) a good sized chunk of labour have agreed to it.
In which case there is a sensible candidate and JC and his loyal followers are blocking the way.

However, if this miracle unity candidate does not already exist ... then JC is the natural choice, no one else commands nearly as many MPs as he does (and he has SNP backing) and those who oppose him are simply saying 'no - not him' without offering a solution that might work (a lot like the rest of the fucking brexit saga).

And - as I just wrote to Gavin Shuker MP (gavin.shuker.mp@parliament. uk - for anyone who wants to lend their voice to the cause of sanity) if they actually do have someone in mind, then publicly insulting Corbyn is not the way to get him to back down. They need to give him a ladder to climb down not heighten the antagonistic rhetoric.

At least one LDem MP publicly stated he would prefer No Deal to Corbyn as PM
I don't know how many other LDems believe this, but just haven't said it
This was Jamie Stone. I emailed him about it and he emailed me back (which - fair play, he didn't have to, I'm not a constituent of his and I told him that) to assure me he believes in avoiding no deal at any cost. I believe that cost is Corbyn.

How is it that none of you have been posting about the court case in Scotland today? I've just checked at the news after an extended play date (please send wine) and seen this in the Guardian:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/04/boris-johnson-will-write-to-eu-requesting-article-50-extension-court-told-brexit

The UK government has promised a court that Boris Johnson will send a letter to the EU seeking an extension to article 50 as required by the Benn act.

The undertaking appears to contradict the prime minister’s statements the UK will leave the EU on 31 October regardless and unattributed claims from Downing Street that he will find a way to sidestep the act.

David Allen Green has a long twitter thread on it as well, says it is not looking good for gov't. twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1180113594190618625

From that thread

It was mentioned when Sky News broke it TheMship and we've subsequently discussed the fallacy of BJ's "Rather Die in a Ditch" comments.

However BJ has just tweeted that whatever the document might have said, he's still not going to ask for an extension even if he doesn't have a deal there will be no delay

I have no idea what's going on and no time to understand it.

Hah. Managed to skip two pages somehow in my haste to catch up. So his options are either resignation or contempt of court then?

I’m an American living in the UK so still trying to figure out politics here I’ve learned so much since 2016! If Johnson resigns on the 19th or thereabouts, who becomes PM? Since its not a VONC does it have to be a Tory? Do we have to wait for them to piss about for ages deciding and therefore “accidentally” no deal?

Oh an obligatory cat pic

Ginger That is a true pissed off with Brexit look.

Regal Meezer Placemark.
A

GingerPCatt

All very good questions ...

If Johnson resigns on the 19th or thereabouts, who becomes PM? Since its not a VONC does it have to be a Tory? Do we have to wait for them to piss about for ages deciding and therefore “accidentally” no deal?

In theory, Her Majesty as Head of State accepts Boris' resignation (in an ironic twist in a nation that has resigned itself to Boris) and then asks if Corbyn - as leader of Her Majesties Loyal Opposition (it is a real job ) can form a government.

I'm guessing implicit in "form a government" is having the confidence of the House of Commons.

As an American, you'll boggle to believe that your founding fathers actually looked at "The Westminster System", and kinda said "yup, that's just what we want with a few tweaks ..." - basically ripping out the Monarch and peers and creating a president and senate.

On the lighter side ... Boris and the undiscovered film pitch — starring Scarlett Johansson and a hero called Marmaduke

Yes it's really as bizarre as the title makes it out to be.

A resigning PM's last act in the job is to recommend a sucessor. The Queen is bound to act on her PM's advice and will send for whoever and invite them to form a govt.

BJ can resign and hand over to Gove, Mogg or whoever he likes. The Tory party has form, when Rab Butler was shafted by three PMs in a row.

The Fixed Term Parliament Act has thoroughly buggered up this part of the Constitution like a piece of charcuterie at the Bullingdon Club.

Thread from Jo Maugham (italics). Looks like they have anticipated the attempt at getting an EU27 member to veto.

There is, so far as I can see, still one, and only one, way through for the Government to 31 October. If they can cause an r27 to veto the extension the statements to the court are fine and the PM gets to deliver his promise.

This way through involves them sending the letter, as they told the court. And it involves them frustrating the Benn Act as a matter of law but not in such a way as to breach the carefully crafted obligation they offered to the Court

We spotted this point late in the day and pushed the Court for an order in the terms of the below.

encouraging (or causing to be encouraged) any other Member State of the European Union either directly or indirectly to disagree with any proposed extension of the period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union ending at 11pm on 31 October 2019 (from screenshot of court document)

We were assisted in this regard by the rather helpful (from our perspective) statement a "senior Downing source" gave to @bbclaurak. We put this before the Court which, I believe, immediately appreciated the gap in the PM's proffered undertakings.

But the government is not prevented by the Act from doing other things that cause no delay, including other communications, private and public. People will have to wait to see how this is reconciled. The government is making its true position on delay known privately in Europe and this will become public soon. (from screenshot of Downing Street source in Laura Kuenssberg tweet)

If (as I now expect) the Court orders that the PM not frustrate or thwart the terms of the Benn Act in the terms we have sought then (I believe) the Government is screwed. We will not be able to make good on whatever we might have promised eg Hungary and they will know it.

Thread continued:

For the PM to ignore such an order would expose him to risk of criminal sanction - and render him the captive of eg Hungary. If he did not do whatever they asked they could threaten to release details of whatever he had offered and leave him facing criminal contempt proceedings.

Stop typing, Jo!

You have to believe that even this (extraordinary) so-called Conservative Party would not want a leader who was not merely working with a foreign state but was its captive.

HoC publication

My reading is that HMQ can / must choose an MP of any party who has the confidence of the HoC

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmpubadm/1813/1813.pdf

"29. Ultimately, as Mr Harper told us, the Sovereign decides who to send for to attempt to form a government.

The Sovereign would need to be given clear advice that a new Prime Minister could command the confidence of the House.

Considering the prospect of several opposition parties grouping together, Mr Harper said:
If that group of Opposition parties publicly set out a position that they would support a particular individual to be Prime Minister and they together commanded a majority,
there would be a very clear choice there,"
.........
"35. The Cabinet Manual is a helpful guide on what should occur.
It is clear that,during the 14-day period following a vote of no confidence under Section 2(3),
the Prime Minister is under a duty not to resign unless and until it is clear another person commands the confidence of the House.

It is also clear that in the event that it becomes apparent that another person could command the confidence of the House the Prime Minister would be expected to resign.

Not to resign in such a circumstance would risk drawing the Sovereign in to the political process, something the Cabinet Manual is very clear should not occur."

A resigning PM's last act in the job is to recommend a sucessor.

I believe they can't be forced to.

The Queen is bound to act on her PM's advice and will send for whoever and invite them to form a govt.

Not sure that's 100% accurate (happy to be corrected). It might be if the Tories were the majority party, but they aren't.

We are in uncharted territory ... maybe the MacMillan->Home changeover is the closest thing to look back to ???? But again, that was pre-FTPA.

How the hell has our country come to this? You couldn't make it up.

Mship If a country like Hungary really wants a bung from the UK to veto, then the court can stop that bung

BUT
Hungary could either do so to support a fellow hard right govt and be owed a future favour
OR
Trump or Putin could provide the inducement to Hungary

You have to believe that even this (extraordinary) so-called Conservative Party would not want a leader who was not merely working with a foreign state but was its captive.

Well I could believe it.