Westminstenders: The Tory Party Spectacular

[RedToothBrush]

A row over parliamentary language and conduct and how MPs are afraid of extremists has over shadowed talk of Brexit.

Cummings has said if you don't want to leave without a deal, vote for a deal.

Yet there isn't a Johnson approved one in front of the Commons and the EU are utterly despairing of Johnson's blank non papers and his full on Trump bullshit.

Then there's the threats to the rule of law.

Apparently there are five known suggestions to bypass the Benn Act and refuse to ask for an extension.
See Twitter Thread Here

This weekend sees the start of the Tory Party Conference. With a parliamentary vote to block a recess, its rather scuppered plans for the rest of the conference. Johnson's planned speech at the conference clashes with PMQ so he may well not attend the Commons.

Expect the conference to be.... Er... Inflammatory...

Gisela Stuart doesn't like me.

Maybe if Hong Kong Phoey said she was going to vote LibDem it might get her expelled?

Dress Sense: I always thought Jesus and his scruffy disciples were put to shame by those Romans with their flowing togas and shiny armour.

Then you've achieved something in your life, DG
To be liked by Gisella Stewart should make your whole life flash before you for urgent review

I wonder why? Ask her too many questions revealing her hypocrisy?

I'm not surprised she didn't stand in 2017.

By the same token, I'm not surprised that Kate Hoey is not standing again.

Menezes reminds me of KAL 007, where the Soviet fighter pilot was trained not to value the evidence of his own eyes and a dirty great 747 all lit up, and instead was told by a controller in Moscow down the line that this was a US spy plane and he should shoot it down.

The problem is, it might have been - especially as the terrible example of 9/11 shows that a civilian airplane is capable of being turned with ludicrous ease into a devastating weapon.

There's a whole underside of military thinking intended to undermine your enemies perception of what is possible and impossible in order to demoralise, deincentivise and cause psychological distress to such an extent that they are unable to fight effectively.

I have no doubt there were alcohol-free champagne corks popping in al-quaeda towers when the JCdM news came out. After all, they had spooked the enemy (that's us Brits, by the way) so much that we were now offing innocent civilians, planting (certainly in my case) that nagging seed of doubt about whether you are more likely to be killed by your own side than by the enemy. As anyone who has lost a relative to a police accident (probably a traffic/pedestrian accident) will tell you, it's not much consolation that the officer wasn't trying.

www.policeconduct.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Documents/statistics/deaths_during_following_police_contact_201718.pdf

is sobering reading and reveals that if you want to be rigorously statistical in your risk analysis, you'd have to conclude that you are far more likely to be killed by a police officer then a terrorist in the UK. Which tells us a lot of things. But mainly about how people don't really think in big pictures.

What the answer is I don't know. But I suspect education is as good a place as any to start ?

An authoritarian regime would go to the army, heavy weapons and tanks.
The police could not defend the public and democracy against that, even if they wanted to

Who was it that said:
"you can't give a parking ticket to a tank"

Then 3 weeks after KAL007 was shot down, we have another Soviet officer, Colonel Petrov, who did NOT follow orders ... and hence probably avoided WW3

Officers educated and trained by the same dictatorship, but one thought for himself and the other just followed orders
Both decisions had major consequences

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

On 26 September 1983, three weeks after the Soviet military had shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007, Petrov was the duty officer at the command center for the Oko nuclear early-warning system
when the system reported that a missile had been launched from the United Statess^, followed by up to five more.

Petrov judged the reports to be a^ false alarmm,[1] and his decision to disobey orders, against Soviet military protocol,[2]^^
is credited with having prevented an erroneous retaliatory nuclear attackk^ on the United States and its NATOO^ allies
that could have resulted in large-scale nuclear warr^.

Investigation later confirmed that the Soviet satellite warning system had indeed malfunctioned.[3]

Gove says getting Brexit done will allow the Tories to focus on “what matters”, like the NHS, education and crime.

Would that be the Tory party of 2035?

This is the latest HMRC Employer's Bulletin

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/833504/7297_Employer_Bulletin_Brexit_02_v4_Accessible.pdf

We learn that if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, UK employers may have to inform employees working in the EU that they will be liable for social security taxes in two different countries.

"The UK Government is working to protect UK nationals by seeking reciprocal arrangements with the EU or Member States to maintain existing social security coordination for a transitional period until 31 December 2020."

But apparently 'No Deal' would also be fine.

The government has also made 'a further' £16 million available for companies to train employees how to handle customs - it's just that at this point nobody can confirm when Brexit will take place, or what the arrangements will be - could be 5 weeks, could be years away.

Post Brexit planning courses are available:

www.export.org.uk/page/PostBrexitPlanning

But apparently the government believes that the majority of planning for Brexit will take place after the government's preferred Brexit date.

DGR was it somewhere between a tank and one of those flail things they use for mine clearance? (hot or cold?)

The riot control vehicle ?

No it was a ludicrous piece of kit.

If you've never seen it, and fancy some lighter viewing this evening, see if you can beg, borrow, or find-on-youtube a copy of Pentagon Wars:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pentagon_Wars

which will explain a lot, about (quasi) military procurement in general.

First thing I said when I saw it was "isn't it a bit top heavy ?" which was why they daren't use it. Frankly a troop of girl guides could have toppled it, let along an angry mob. I suspect it had been stripped of it's guns which would have been used to keep it clear, so was useless in the UK.

I also saw an armoured Land Rover which I was told had been called out to Hungerford, but managed to get a puncture so never made it. (The idea being to drive up to Ryan and safely corner him). The armour was very thick, and it had internal covered gun ports to fire from, and an industrial strength jetwash to clear the (bullet resistant) screen of paint and inflammable devices in case a crowd was knocking up the Molotov cocktails I alluded to earlier

Somewhere I have a baton round I was given on a visit. Fucking terrifying thing and an excellent example of how language can mislead as there is no way on Gods Green Earth you'd ever call this thing a "rubber bullet".

However that was the 80s and 90s. Riot and crowd policing have gotten much more advanced. Which is one reason why I for one am extremely unworried by the idea of any Brexit unrest as some sort of Gammon Spring. As I said I can use my eyes and brain.

For some reason I've just remembered Tony Blairs deployment of tanks around Heathrow for what was then, and still remains, no good reason. Unless he wanted the crews out of the way so he could conduct a "Boris" with someones wife at barracks ?

Hammond not attending the Tory conference for the first time in 35 years:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/28/philip-hammond-radical-tory-advisers-want-no-deal-brexit

“The party I joined as a student [is] unrecognisable to me,^
Gone is the relaxed, broad church coalition united by a belief in free trade, open markets, fiscal discipline, and a fear of the pernicious effects of socialism.^

“The radicals advising Boris do not want a deal.
Like the Marxists on the Labour left, they see the shock of a disruptive no-deal Brexit as a chance to re-order our economy and society.
But I detect no appetite among our electorate for such a project.”

He said Johnson should “moderate his language and his demeanour”
because “compromise requires reaching out, not slapping down”.

“...Boris Johnson asserts, ever more boldly, that we will leave the EU with or without a deal.

But as his sister has reminded us, he is backed by speculators who have bet billions on a hard Brexit
– and there is only one outcome that works for them:

a crash-out no-deal Brexit that sends the currency tumbling and inflation soaring.”

.

To be honest I personally suspect things have moved into drome territory with city/town policing in an authoritarian bent. I'd not be amazed if the drones at a certain airport weren't there as a test run for civilian purposes - how many people would see the/how many would the police and press believe/how much disruption could this cause if it was a terrorist attack/how much can we do without public consent - type job. In my town they've introduced sub-ground bollards, which can be raised at a moment's notice. My first thought? Why are they all on small windy roads around the town center that a scooter could get through? Yet my friend's mum, who is now ringed in by these, is adamant they are there to protect her. Bottleneck was my first thought. Cynical yes, but after a decade of being told our bin collection had to be bi-weekly despite foxes/rats/students and that we can't have a leisure facility that doesn't have mould on the changing room floors, schools should always ask parents to provide pens/pencils/board games for wet play, bollards seem an unlikely improvement to people's lives.

Tanks around Heathrow was Blair sending a message that ordinary people shouldn't be afraid
i.e. no practical reason

Tanks sent anywhere by BJ would be sending a message that ordinary people should be afraid
i.e. he might order them to fire and they might obey, going by NI

frone, obvs, not drome. I just think we should be looking at what the army uses overseas rather than tanks; although they will have their place at strategic areas of towns (hospitals and major landmarks is my guess).

Or even Drone

Why would we think, like the elections we have manipulated around the world, it can't happen here? We know tech in the military has moved on. What better way to showcase this than using it on our own? Despots have been built on less.

I'd not be amazed if the drones at a certain airport weren't there as a test run for civilian purposes

If they existed, that is

They could just as easy have been a gentle nudge from certain quarters that things might not be the return to certain times that the powers that be might expect (and even welcome).

Worth paying attention to what the Russians did after Finland kicked their butt. Because Hitler certainly didn't.

There's an old military adage about being perfectly equipped to fight the last war ...

But DGR if you don't believe the over 130 eye witness reports of seeing drones...dangerous territory. It never happened - there's no press here!

lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/state-of-the-nation-my-new-polling-on-the-political-landscape-and-the-battle-lines-for-the-next-election/

I’m sure Red will put this up later with excellent commentary but for anyone who wants the whole thing. Lord Ashcroft polling pre election.

Why would we think, like the elections we have manipulated around the world, it can't happen here? We know tech in the military has moved on. What better way to showcase this than using it on our own? Despots have been built on less.

The problem with going too overboard with conspiracy theories, is if you aren't careful you end up having to credit your opponent with far more skill in the art of concealment than would be necessary to produce the initial event.

The Apollo hoax cretins being a clear example. If the US really faked the moon landings, given that at some point 1 in 10 US tax dollars were going on it, then the skills involved in actually going to the moon are trivial in comparison. I'm a great fan of cock up over conspiracy every day.

It's certainly not skill I'm giving BoZoCum. But point taken. If you think we will still be in the WW2 definition of a civil war and the bollards are there to protect our own rather than make it easier to bottle neck and police, then that's as good a guess as mine. I still think it a little naive to assume our govt, with such flagrant flouting of law, would respect people enough to come in with a tank whilst using stealth modes overseas.

The rest of the money will come in the future" - Health Secretary Matt Hancock is pushed on how the government will pay for the 40 new hospitals announced today. #Ridge

So the 40 new hospitals that turn out to be not 40 are now to be paid for by money we do not yet have.

I foresee one or two problems with this.

Might as well promise us a unicorn each amounts to the same.

Anyone listened to Ken Clarke in Political Thinking Podcast? Beacon of sanity, good sense & compromise.

DGR - if you are trying to say they couldn't have kept it quiet - see the recent Iran escalations. Who working under orders to produce mass drones while papers spout these reports would suspect this could be used at home? 2 years ago who would have thought we would have tasered police who were un-vetted marching our streets?