The Brexit Arms

[BrexitArmsLandlady]

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Go BoJo!
Go BoJo!
Go BoJo!
Go BoJo!

So near & yet so far..............

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How did the easiest trade deal in history turn into 3 years, billions of quid down the drain no deal? Oh and diminished status on the world stage.

Maybe I am wrong then but I am watching sky news and they are very explicitly saying Stormont could vote on it 4 years after the transition ends (2025). So that gives them over 5 years to reconvene. But if they weren't sitting then the deal (no change) would just continue until they do

You’re wrong. Stormont (which hasn’t sat since Jan 2017) would need to approve the arrangements before they come into effect.

“Under no circumstances, whatever happens, will I allow the EU or anyone else to create any kind of division down the Irish Sea or attenuate our Union,”

Guess who said that just 3 months ago?

I thought we didn't have any status on world stage to loose?

Any how, it turns into long slog when Democrats turn into tyrants and want to over turn a vote rather than all accept the vote and pull together to find a good exit

There is no good exit, that is the problem.

You’re wrong. Stormont (which hasn’t sat since Jan 2017) would need to approve the arrangements before they come into effect

Cant find anything that validates that. Only that "the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly will be given the chance to endorse the plan before it comes into effect".

Nothing to say it has a veto over the deal coming into effect. And given the DUP are supporting the deal any vote in Stormont should win, after all who wants a no deal?

@walkingdead

Page 2, fourth element, principle of consent. It’s very clear.

@ContinuityError
You mean the policy exchange report that concludes, "EU and Irish demands go well beyond the avoidance of a hard border"?
Or where you referring to some actual law?

@walkingdead

You haven’t read Johnson’s letter, have you

@ContinuityError
Oh dear you really have put your own interpretation onto it. As I previously said, it gives NI the opportunity to endorse the new deal DURING the transition period ie after we have left. It does not mean the NI assembly has any power to stop the UK leaving the EU.

I don’t think Ireland are going to approve it -

BREAKING from Dublin after PM call with Varadkar

“The Taoiseach said the proposals do not fully meet the agreed objectives of the backstop.

“However, he indicated that he would study them in further detail, and would consult with the EU institutions”

@walkingdeadfangirl

Oh dear indeed.

It’s not just “my interpretation” but the interpretation of everyone that has actually read and understood it.

Oh, and the HMG explanatory notes are probably a bit of a giveaway - especially the bit where it says “If consent is withheld, the arrangements will not enter into force or will lapse (as the case may be) after one year, and arrangements will default to existing rules.“

@ContinuityError Maybe I am wrong but could you explain your interpretation and provide links to confirm?

Its my understanding that the new deal (where NI has a special position) can be agreed between Boris/Parliament & EU. After the UK has LEFT the EU then NI @ Stormont gets a vote if it accepts what has happened.

If it agrees the special status then all is good, if it disagrees then it reverts to whatever status the UK has with the EU, aka a hard Brexit.

At no point does any agreement say NI has a veto over the UK leaving the EU.

See all this shit we have been going through and the strain it has put on us and our politics. If your knew even the slightest thing about NI, you would know that it could not cope with this being focused on it.
Google "cash for ash" to see why Stormont isn't sitting right now.
It simply is irresponsible to dump this on NI. The only reason the DUP are up for it is that it gives them a chance, while they still have a slim majority, of destroying GFA.
I was appalled that the DUP has a fringe meeting attended by the PM at the Tory Party Conference.
I am the first to shout about Corbyn giving comfort to terrorist apologists. But this is almost exactly the same.
While you are googling, google UVF and the DUP.

Here, in case you missed it @Walkingdeadfangirl is why we need to protect GFA and not put Stormont under strain.

@Walkingdeadfangirl

I pointed out that you were wrong in your assumption that Stormont’s consent is not required for the proposed arrangement to commence - you said:

Stormont do not have to agree this for it to start because it does comply with the GFA.

And then some blether about Stormont’s consent not being required before 2025.

Stormont’s consent is required before the end of the transition period mentioned in Johnson’s letter, which runs through until the end of 2020. If that consent is not given, then the special arrangements proposed for NI would not come into force.

As for links, I’m sure Google will provide - Johnson’s letter and the HMG advice was all over the news yesterday.

So have we moved on to 'who's fault is Brexit ' ?

Will be interesting to see how the blame game will play out over the next few weeks.

At no point does any agreement say NI has a veto over the UK leaving the EU.

No one is saying that is does 🤔

What it does say is that NI can veto the arrangements needed to avoid the backstop which would then require........... a backstop

Which is exactly why this solution is bollocks

Wow jess Philips saying manifesto lies... Can't deliver stuff.

At least she is honest!

The blame game will inevitably be anybody but the Tories and Brexiteers

Walking

Doesn't stop the UK leaving but unless Sormont agrees, then it doesn't happen, so we stay in transition forever!!! OR we just put up customs controls and go our own way?

Stormont couldn't even agree on a bloody heating scheme, the DUP and SF hate each other.

Its often been said by Leavers that the UK will be fine in regard to medicines as the EU would not see us go short.......

Well, we have just banned the export of 24 different drugs..... BUT nothing to do with Brexit ffs people are really stupid if they swallow that! lol!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-49907056

It really comes down to whether or not the EU would truly prefer a no deal scenario or not

WM in its current configuration will not pass the WA as it currently is (with backstop)

Verhofstadt can repeat on a loop that it's 'the only deal on the table' as much as he wants - it is not acceptable to WM in its current form & the default is no deal

However, the extension act gives the EU the power to control extension, including length of extension so EU see no need to move at all now (which is precisely what Boris et al were repeatedly pointing out)

Had the power-drunk MPs in WM not pushed through the ludicrous bill then both sides would have had pressure to reach compromise

As it stands, there is no pressure for EU to budge & no pressure for WM MPs to budge - this is why the only way forward now is a GE.

Presuming EU offers extension, then we reach this point again and both WM & EU are finally forced to make a choice - deal or no deal

EU will be taking a gamble though in this case as it is not clear how a GE is likely to play out

SKY News are running on Twitter a countdown and progress based on what has happened that day

28 days to go 🗓

PROGRESS REPORT: The PM's new Brexit blueprint received a hostile reaction from Dublin, Brussels & the opposition in Westminster.

After the past 24 hours, the UK 🇬🇧 is now much more likely to leave the EU 🇪🇺 WITHOUT a deal on 31 October:

The default is UK has to ask for an extension, that's the law now.

It's difficult for both sides, BJ knows the damage a no-deal will do to the UK economy and the EU realises that a no-deal will mean customs checks in NI/ROI... exactly what they are trying to avoid.

But Johnsons proposal is to leave on 31/10 and work out the details later, so, as the UK diverges from EU regs, the need for ever tighter controls, bothin NI and our sea borders will increase and there is no tech solution to any of this.

What happens if the NI assembly votes against it?