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Brexit

Westministenders: The Non Re-Opening Of Parliament

989 replies

RedToothBrush · 24/09/2019 19:40

Parliament will reconvene tomorrow, at 11.30am, as if proroguation never happened as the Supreme Court ruled that the government acted outside the limits of its power and this was therefore unlawful.

The most senior court in the UK has ruled unaminously to defend Parliamentary Sovereignity and the Rule of British Law.

Unusually for a Wednesday there will be no PMQ, however there will be time for Ministerial Statements, UQ and Debate under S024.
See the abbreviation thread if you are struggling with these

So tomorrow is sure to be explosive on way or another.

The Government is hitting back by questioning the Supreme Court whilst also saying they respect the Supreme Court's authority. This is an oxymoron. Its being done for political reasons and is, in its own way, a direct threat to the Rule of Law.

Robert Buckland is, again, having to do a lot in Cabinet to assert the point of the importance of the Rule of Law and how it prevents mob rule. Something that seems to keep getting forgotten by anonymous No 10 sources.

The political fallout from the ruling is sure to lead to calls for the Supreme Court to be politically elected. This has been a long term goal of parts of the hard right.

Johnson, is currently in the US, so the announcement that parliament will be back tomorrow has rather spoilt his jolly to see his mate Donnie. He will have to get on a plane smartish.

But for all the hard talk there will also be ramifications for Johnson. Whilst there will be a lot of 'nothing has changed', and there is no chance of a VoNC in the HoC being tabled by the opposition whilst no deal is still on the table on the 31st Oct, there will still be problems for Johnson.

There will be a post mortem within his own party. The next Cabinet Meeting will almost certainly be explosive. There are already attempts to set Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General who apparently advised that proroguation was lawful, under the bus as the fall guy. This will perhaps be a deflection to try and protect Dominic Cummings, as there will be moderate Tories who will seek to use this as an opportunity to have him sacked. But more than this, its likely to result in other Cabinet Ministers being more forceful and to challenge Johnson more, both for their own political gain and for their own political protection. He will certainly be more questioned from within, about his poor judgement.

We also have him facing an investigation from the London Assembly over his conduct and suggestions of an inappropriate relationship with a busty blonde American woman.

Next weeks Conservative Party Conference is now in tatters. Whilst Corbyn has wrapped up the Labour Party Conference early to avoid a clash with Parliament being open, Johnson is stuffed. Next week's PMQ will clash with the schedule for his Party Speech. Normally parliament would be in recess for the conference season, but parliament has to vote to allow this. And there isn't a majority for the Conservatives to now be able to do this. So Parliament almost certainly will be sitting next week.

Unfortunately, the Tories are a little stuffed with their conference being held in Manchester. If (and lets face it, with the gloves off and time short) the opposition want to cause mischief, they will try and schedule crucial and embarassing debates during the party conference, to keep MPs stuck in Westminister as much as possible. And with good reason under the circumstances.

We still have the small matter of the 31st October deadline which Johnson is still sticking to saying we will either have a deal or we will leave without a deal - unlawfully.

Remember on that note, Johnson has already acted beyond his power and unlawfully on the basis of bad advice. Johnson being hulk, rather than a girly swat, relies on the advice of others more heavily than his own wisdom and experience - of which he has been exposed time and again - to be somewhat lacking in.

As a side note, its also worth reflecting on the NCA having dropped charges in relation to Leave.Eu and how the Electoral Commission has commented on this decision:
"We are concerned about the apparent weakness in the law, highlighted by this investigation outcome, which allows overseas funds into UK politics. We have made recommendations that would tighten the rules on campaign funding and deter breaches. We urge the UK's governments to act on those recommendations to support voter confidence"

In the context of an imminent General Election, this is really very concerning indeed.

Just WHO is in control? Cos it doesn't look like its Boris Johnson right now, thats for sure.

OP posts:
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chomalungma · 25/09/2019 07:43

It's a proper bind actually

And that's the rub.

Brexit is such a massive issue. A dominant issue. It should be separate to any party manifesto as people's views on Brexit may well differ from their views on the rest of the manifesto.

And the whole FPTP system just makes things more complex.

thecatfromjapan · 25/09/2019 07:43

(Disclosure: I don't work for 'Best for Britain'!)

JeSuisPoulet · 25/09/2019 07:50

I caught most of Annalise Dodds from the Labour Conference on Womans Hour yesterday, who I think explained their position quite well. It does seem like fence sitting but actually is trying to bring the country together by recognising people may have changed their minds, that we need things May ruled out with her Red Lines for us to prosper and not loose jobs, and she suggests that Labour would be able to get a deal within days! Yes it is time, but really we shouldn't be complaining if they take months and get it right; anything is better than no deal in the long run. Link here www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b007qlvb/episodes/downloads

IDontBelieveYou · 25/09/2019 07:50

I like Labour’s policy on Brexit - even Emily Thornberry’s explanation of “getting a deal and then campaigning against it” makes sense to me.

But that doesn’t account for the fact that the only Leave that the noisy Leavers will now accept is no deal. Anything less than that will be dubbed BRINO and Corbyn is an easy target to set up as a traitor for setting a PV with BRINO or remain as options.

So at the moment I’m still with the Lib Dem’s. What’s that quote - whatever you do, someone will criticise you for it so you might as well please yourself. There is no Brexit outcome that will solve the problem the referendum created.

Socksontheradiator · 25/09/2019 07:53

I like Labour's policy too. I think Corbyn is the only one trying to pull the country together.

Myriade · 25/09/2019 07:53

I fear that we'll face a period of real problems that will damage the country irreversibly before we get a grip and stabilise. Our influence will be long gone by then and we'll be a shadow of what the country once was. I'd say that maybe that's no bad thing given how we've treated most of the world at one point or another. The trouble is I think it just means we'll be on the receiving end instead.

I agree RTB and I also think that we have passed the point of no return a while ago.
There are many issues the country needs to work through:
The end of the Empire and the real place of the U.K. in the world
The North and South divide as well as the English attitude towards the rest of the U.K.
The class system and the legacy of Margaret Tatcher

The EU has protected the U.K. so it didn’t have to face those issues and work through them. Now it has, about 50 years late,, and with a huge bang.

My issue is that I don’t see how it could do that wo. Having first to feel the effects of where it is (aka a medium size nation, not the ruler of the world with an Empire ‘where the sun never sets’)...

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 25/09/2019 07:56

I actually don't mind Labour taking the position they have. Any more than I mind Tories really perusing no deal and Lib Dem's perusing revoke when it comes to a stand on a general election.

I do have an issue having a general election on it though, because a general election is not a single issue thing. So if I wanted a soft brexit I'd want to vote labour, but I may not like their other policies that come hand in hand with it. If I wanted revoke I'd vote Lib dems, but I may not like the other policies there too.

I also question how far Labour are going to get with the EU on renegotiating anything that they've already said they'd actively campaign against.

Motheroffourdragons · 25/09/2019 08:01

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

derxa · 25/09/2019 08:03

Saw Rory Stewart on GMB this morning. So sensible.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 25/09/2019 08:03

Perusing??? Pursuing Angry
Combination of pills and autocorrect there.

prettybird · 25/09/2019 08:04

Funny how BJ-Cummings doesn't want to breach the confidentiality of his latest conversation with the Queen Wink

IrenetheQuaint · 25/09/2019 08:09

"I also question how far Labour are going to get with the EU on renegotiating anything that they've already said they'd actively campaign against."

If Labour say (as surely they will) that they want a customs union, the Irish backstop and protection of workers' rights then there is no way the EU are going to disagree. The Labour type of Brexit deal is much closer to what the EU have always wanted than the Tory one.

Obviously not all of this can be agreed in the WA, but presumably the PD would be amended to give a clear direction of travel.

LouiseCollins28 · 25/09/2019 08:12

Agree that the tone of the address at the recall will be important, let’s see what JRM does. Equally important is the reaction. Basically I mean do the MPs on various sides simply revert to their pre-break positions of “my preferred Brexit outcome or nothing” or do we see some actual grown up political solutions where people move on from their entrenched positions. I’m not holding my breath for that.

berlinbabylon · 25/09/2019 08:13

she suggests that Labour would be able to get a deal within days

I think if they went to the EU and said the UK would like to stay in the SM and CU they would get a revised deal in a short time frame. Although: there would be some haggling over the cost of that which might take longer to agree than they anticipate. Not days but weeks maybe.

flouncyfanny · 25/09/2019 08:21

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

pointythings · 25/09/2019 08:26

Meanwhile did anyone catch Lord Sumption genteelly putting the boot into the government on Today this morning? I may have a tiny crush.

prettybird · 25/09/2019 08:41

I wrote this on the Predictions thread:

I fear that the UK is following the Argentinian trajectory in the early 20th century: a series of catastrophic political decisions which irrevocably damage its economy, resulting in it dropping out of the G7 (perhaps even out of the G20) and taking over a 100 years to recover, if it ever does. Sad

Its economy will also be reduced by Scotland (re)gaining its independence which I now think will indeed happen within 5 years (10 at most). So at least Scotland will escape the worse of FUKD's decline.

I also predict a Border Poll and a united Ireland within the same timescale.

Not sure I'm seeing any evidence to revise that opinion Sad

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 25/09/2019 08:41

ComRes snap poll in the Telegraph today

The majority of the public agree with the Supreme Court.
BoJo is seen as less blameworthy than Cameron or Corbyn

www.comresglobal.com/polls/the-telegraph-snap-poll-september-2019/

THE TELEGRAPH SNAP POLL - SEPTEMBER 2019
Poll of GB adults on their views on the prorogation of Parliament Supreme Court ruling on other general Brexit issues.
The majority of British adults say Jeremy Corbyn (54%) and David Cameron (56%) have acted dishonestly over Brexit – the two highest of all individuals tested.
Four in ten 2016 Remain voters think Jeremy Corbyn has acted dishonestly (40%), as do three in ten (30%) of 2017 Labour voters.
By a ratio of about two to one, the British public agree that the Supreme Court was right to rule that Boris Johnson’s prorogation of parliament was unlawful (50% agree vs 29% disagree).
Three in five of the British public agree that Parliament has had plenty of time to debate Brexit and we should just get on with leaving the EU (60%), including one third (35%) of 2016 Remain voters.
Two in five 2016 Remain voters (39%) and nine in ten 2016 Leave voters (88%) agree that whether or not they voted for Brexit, the 2016 Referendum should be respected, also including four in ten of those intending to vote Labour at the next election (38%).
Two in five British adults say the UK should stay in the EU (37%), compared to half who say the UK should leave with or without a deal by 31st October 2019 (49%).
One in five UK adults think the UK will leave the EU without a deal by 31st October 2019 (21%).
Three in five British adults agree Parliament should reconvene immediately in light of the ruling that the prorogation of parliament was unlawful (61%).
Half of British adults agree they have a good understanding of The Brexit Party (52%) and the Liberal Democrat’s Brexit Policy (51%) compared to two in five for the Conservatives (41%) and only three in ten for Labour’s (29%).
Once again the country’s polarised state is pronounced, as half of 2016 Leave voters (54%) would feel betrayed by the UK remaining in the EU, whereas half of 2016 Remain voters (51%) would feel pleased at this.
Four in ten (38%) 2016 Leave voters believe Boris Johnson bears no responsibility for the current Brexit deadlock.
The country remains polarised over today’s Supreme Court ruling, with half of 2016 Leave voters (47%) feeling frustrated with its decision whilst half of 2016 Remain voters (52%) feel pleased.

Mistigri · 25/09/2019 08:42

I think that Labour would simply agree to the existing WA and seek to amend the political declaration. Weeks, not day, but could be done quickly assuming a sensible direction of travel. You'd get that through the current parliament.

But after a GE? We don't know what the parliamentary arithmetic will look like, but potentially we could see MPs willing to compromise (eg the Tory rebels) replaced by MPs who take a harder line. The assumption that Labour will just wave through the WA and an amended PD is very naive.

NotJustACigar · 25/09/2019 08:46

Pmk

lonelyplanetmum · 25/09/2019 08:48

Trump says he knows BJ well and he's not going anywhere.

Yes well

lonelyplanetmum · 25/09/2019 08:49

Yes well- hopefully Trump is right, without parliamentary approval we are heading nowhere.

BirdandSparrow · 25/09/2019 09:00

pmk

ARoomWithoutADoor · 25/09/2019 09:07

Proroging was a Mistake, King Boris
thanks, Red

mummmy2017 · 25/09/2019 09:17

I wonder how many MPs are worried about their jobs?

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