COULD Varadker play a blinder?

[Miljah]

First, I have no personal skin in the game. Apart from the bomb scares of the 70s in British towns. And the nightly news.

Secondly, I have tried to keep abreast of the political landscape in NI, while understanding that there are complexities way beyond my ken at play.

And thirdly, a MN suspension, maybe six months ago, as an outsider musing whether it was deeply patronising to the people of NI to assume, as a matter of course, that the only way to broker differences was bombs and guns, there surely had to be other ways?- I was told in no uncertain terms that these were the only tools available, and that I should butt out as a non NI person....

SO. What if Varadker, highly unlikely, I know, were to offer reunification with an undertaking to respect Protestant rights? I recognise the economics, here- 70% of NI jobs are financed UK public sector. Could the republic pick up that slack? Would NI people earning that public sector cash want to jeopardise that?

But might that represent the first inkling of a way forward for NI? EU membership (and I'd bet ££ (I don't have 'euro, euro' on my keyboard! 😊) in order to sweeten that seismic shift; especially now NI must recognise that much of GB didn't even know, or care, about the GFA?

How soon before I am reported, in outrage?....

@whyamidoingthis . I reckon toasters in the press will be the key negotiating point!

Based on the toaster location, my parents are Catholic but my pils are closet protestants. I wouldn't mind, but fil is a very devout Catholic. It's obviously just a front.

I have protestant friends who keep theirs in the utility room. Does that count as a press or are they closet catholics?

Ah but do the people of NI have presses or do they have cupboards?

Excellent question @JaneJeffer

Cupboards- for bread, but not toasters

Hot presses for towels and bedding. And playing hide and seek in while you can still climb up the slatted shelves.

And knocking over the pile of towels so your mother ends up killing you.

Mum: “WHO WAS IN THE HOTPRESS???”

Kids:

I suspect Unionist small farmers who rely on EU subsudies to stay afloat and keep land in their families would be far more positive toward the idea of a reunited Ireland than they would be if Brexit hadn't come up.

A majority in NI voted Remain, some very clearly going against the policy of the party they voted for at the previous election

@mathanxiety - I suspect Unionist small farmers who rely on EU subsudies to stay afloat and keep land in their families would be far more positive toward the idea of a reunited Ireland than they would be if Brexit hadn't come up.

The problem is, that will not make for successful reunification. They would be going for a united Ireland as the lesser of two evils. I want to see a united Ireland because people actually want a united Ireland and will work to make it successful.

Brexit is not a good reason to hold unity referendums

Wrt the idea of hiwks if protest from other EU members if NI were to be offered EU membership ...

The EU absorbed the former German Democratic Republic when it reunified with the former West Germany. That model already exists.
That precedent has already been set.

NI is not a potentially self reliant state. It's not economically viable even as a UK region.

I can't see anything other than reunification being endorsed by the EU

NI itself is the lesser of two evils in the eyes of its founders and its ardent supporters

The time is fast approaching when nobody in NI will have anything on their mind but economic survival. Farmers are in hock to vulture banks up to their eyeballs. The bottom of their world is about to fall out

Everyone in the border region had to make the most of a horrible situation before but the stakes are far higher now and the safety net of the UK is about to be destroyed economically - there will be no more NHS or money for farmers. The majority of NI voters know this.

I agree with you mathanxiety. I just think that it's a recipe for disaster whichever way it goes.

Punch line is simple. No deal scares the pants off Ireland as they know they are destroyed. Rest of World continues as though nothing had happened. Trump, US president, is a big advocate of no deal.

Ireland isn't destroyed by No Deal. Ireland remains in the EU after all. Ireland will continue to trade within the EU and will continue to trade with China, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and its biggest trading partner, the US.
tradingeconomics.com/ireland/balance-of-trade

NI, otoh, is fucked. On top of the economic crisis, 'no deal' could precipitate a political and paramilitary crisis which will be up to the UK to deal with in front of the world's cameras. It will be interesting to see if any lessons were learned from the previous PR debacle, if this happens.

The UK, leaving the EU, faces the rest of the world and its monster economies - China, USA, India, South Korea, Japan - alone. The Rest of the World will continue as before, eating up stragglers like the UK, imposing their terms in trade negotiations; the UK will be invited to 'take it or leave it'.

Trump can't get a trade deal with the UK through Congress without the support of the cross party Irish Congressional lobby.
theconversation.com/how-brexit-is-leading-a-resurgent-irish-american-influence-in-us-politics-121343

I want to see a united Ireland because people actually want a united Ireland and will work to make it successful.

Brexit is not a good reason to hold unity referendums

I suspect having a back to the wall will be a strong motivating factor, and the promise of EU Regional aid will sweeten the pill considerably.

EU Regional Aid to an all Ireland state stands a chance of being far more effective than aid to what is really one region if you examine it (the northern half of Ireland including present day NI plus Leitrim, Sligo, Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan) but currently divided between two jurisdictions.

Even the DUP knows it will be reduced to its last urban bastions of support if No Deal occurs. NI voters thumbed their noses at following DUP endorsed sectarian lines when it came to the referendum. They will know who to thank if/when No Deal threatens little farms in Fermanagh and Tyrone that have been in the same families for generations.

Nobody wants to see NI reduced to penury. It will make absorption into Ireland that much more difficult if another civil war breaks out, and if economic disruption is severe with capital flowing abroad recovery will be harder for everyone on the island than if sensible people bite the bullet sooner rather than later. NI will also be far more of a drain on the Exchequer than it should be, and maybe even more of a drain than the embattled UK will be able to sustain, if the economy collapses and conditions return to pre GFA horrors.

Contradicts your earlier statement that A50 and GFA are separate agreements

No it doesn't. You do seem to struggle with logic. I can work on 2 separate, unconnected projects at the same time. Neither reduces my commitment to the other but my commitments to one can make fulfilling my commitment to the other more complicated.

Trump, US president, is a big advocate of no deal.

Trump, no more than Johnson, does not have the power he thinks he has. They still need to get deals past government bodies.

Ireland, as a member of the EU, will be fine.

@mathanxiety - I agree with you.

The ideal situation for reunification would be when the majority in NI consider themselves Irish. It will be a rockier road with a majority who identify as British.

Leo would be shooting himself in the foot by suggesting reunification. Irish voters (myself included) aren't interested. We just want to keep the peace.

Keeping the peace isn't going to come about if voters insist on running away from reality.

The nettle needs to be grasped.

By who though?

A lot of Irish voters see it as a problem of the UKs making. NI is a part of the UK, Brexit is a decision by the UK. We'd like to help minimise the sting but its not our nettle.

I can work on 2 separate, unconnected projects at the same time. Neither reduces my commitment to the other but my commitments to one can make fulfilling my commitment to the other more complicated

So they are not separate projects then are they?

MoltonSilver
When Irish voters cast their votes in the referendum that dropped the historic claim to sovereignty over NI, they did so knowing that their yes or no was a yes or no to the GFA, not just to dropping the claim. That referendum didn't happen in a vacuum.

And the contents of the GFA weren't a big mystery either. The idea that violence could be ended and that even the reunification question could be settled peacefully by means of referenda were motivators.

The GFA is still in operation and its terms still hold out the hope of peace and a modicum of prosperity for NI and for border regions in Ireland.

Brexit isn't the cause of the problem presented by NI. It will exacerbate problems that have been in existence in NI for decades.

Failure to engage with the problems of NI with the option of an all island solution equals turning Ireland's back on the GFA and if anyone thinks the violence and criminality that will result from abandonment of the GFA will leave Ireland unscathed they need to give their head a wobble. It would be a case of utter cowardice and criminal stupidity on the part of politicians and civil servants and voters to shrug and leave NI to the UK to fix. Last time that happened the result was 30 years of horror.

The GFA committed Ireland to engagement, like it or not, for better or for worse, for richer or for poorer, with the problems of NI.

So they are not separate projects then are they?

Huh? Yes, they are. The fact I am a common denominator does not connect the projects.

SO. What if Varadker, highly unlikely, I know, were to offer reunification

Op to answer the bare bones question that you originally posed, the simple answer is NO HE CAN NOT

If you read the GFA you would understand Leo does not have any right to offer a united ireland.

Neither does Boris

Dublin cannot take us back and London cannot give us away.

The initial decision to vote on a united ireland can only be taken internally within Northern Ireland by the Northern Irish voters only. Then once we have agreed to have a referendum on the matter the Irish people in the ROI will simultaneously have a referendum on whether they want us back or not. In the meantime ROI has given up any claim it might have had over NI in its constitution. So for Leo to start talking about taking or having NI back would be a subtle breach of that.

The English Scottish and Welsh would have absolutely no say in the matter.

So all this talk about Leo could offer to take them back. Or why don’t uk just give NI back is completely pointless because that’s simply not how it would work

Having said that I do feel that Leo is one of the few politicians who really seems to understand the complexities of Northern Ireland

THIS ^^

Exactly.

Complete ignorance of GFA terms (and context too) is not a surprise - it's very evident that nobody in Westminster knew/knows the first thing about it - but since three years have passed from when most British voters apparently first heard of it, it seems to me that some homework could and should have been done. It's all written out in plain English and there is commentary in plain English explaining ramifications.