COULD Varadker play a blinder?

[Miljah]

First, I have no personal skin in the game. Apart from the bomb scares of the 70s in British towns. And the nightly news.

Secondly, I have tried to keep abreast of the political landscape in NI, while understanding that there are complexities way beyond my ken at play.

And thirdly, a MN suspension, maybe six months ago, as an outsider musing whether it was deeply patronising to the people of NI to assume, as a matter of course, that the only way to broker differences was bombs and guns, there surely had to be other ways?- I was told in no uncertain terms that these were the only tools available, and that I should butt out as a non NI person....

SO. What if Varadker, highly unlikely, I know, were to offer reunification with an undertaking to respect Protestant rights? I recognise the economics, here- 70% of NI jobs are financed UK public sector. Could the republic pick up that slack? Would NI people earning that public sector cash want to jeopardise that?

But might that represent the first inkling of a way forward for NI? EU membership (and I'd bet ££ (I don't have 'euro, euro' on my keyboard! 😊) in order to sweeten that seismic shift; especially now NI must recognise that much of GB didn't even know, or care, about the GFA?

How soon before I am reported, in outrage?....

Hi Miljah,

If only it was as simple as that.....
I'm from Ireland. I wouldn't think much of Varadker as a politician however in connection to Brexit/EU/Irish rights in Europe he seems to be doing okay in my book.

Your idea is probably a better one than Boris might come up with! So I wont report you in outrage.

Don't know if you realise how reunification can place within the GFA. It's not as simple as offering it.

So even if it came to a vote and the people of Northern Ireland voted for unification, it then needs to be voted for in Ireland. Both sides need to have the same result.
With 70% of all workers in Northern Ireland working for the public sector: who will they work for post "reunification"?
Also do you think the people of Northern Ireland will want to give up free health care?

It's a hard one, the GFA and peace process is 21 years old and I am only now becoming comfortable with travelling up to Northern Ireland for touristy stuff, shopping and concerts as I still didn't feel safe.

I think we will have to watch and wait to be honest to the last minute. Keep up with your ideas though, you never know Boris might just see a good one online and take note.

Tazzy.

GFA requires two referenda to make that happen. I see where you are coming from but I doubt that it would get majority support in NI. They would lose the nhs for one thing (obviously I am not even starting here to address deep felt community reasons why people would vote against). And I am not 100% sure the people of Ireland would be strongly in favour. The cost to their economy and the very obviously unhappy Unionist community they would inherit. Maybe a narrow majority?
As with all things - it's complicated. WA kept the fudge going.

As above the previous commenters with the complexity of this. Really there are no 'blinders' to be played. The GFA was a long and painfully won process winning an uneasy peace. Any fundamental change will be equally long to create and carefully negotiated. The 'blinder' is Brexit. The kind of blinder that goes off course and ends up breaking the roof window of the pavilion, knocking over the waiter under the window who's passing with a tray full of full glasses which cascade to the floor spilling their contents and breaking and causing the incoming people to slide over and slash various parts of their bodies on the glass and end up all blaming each other and having a long punch-up.
Blinders not required. Long and careful intelligent diplomacy much needed.

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.facebook.com/Channel4News/videos/if-you-were-to-have-a-no-deal-brexit-that-would-make-a-united-ireland-much-more-/373077413645353/&ved=2ahUKEwiGx-rcgOTkAhWjQxUIHfWnCSwQwqsBMAN6BAgJEAU&usg=AOvVaw0ZMIeCbW3NrySA7-y7NZAd" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.facebook.com/Channel4News/videos/if-you-were-to-have-a-no-deal-brexit-that-would-make-a-united-ireland-much-more-/373077413645353/&ved=2ahUKEwiGx-rcgOTkAhWjQxUIHfWnCSwQwqsBMAN6BAgJEAU&usg=AOvVaw0ZMIeCbW3NrySA7-y7NZAd

voila that link didn't wok, could you try again, please?

By 'blinder'- I don't really mean what I can see that implies; a sudden, bolt from the blue proposition. I meant, really, the introduction of the idea coming from the Irish government, that reunification with everyone's Rights being spelled out and legislated for, where possible; a long game that would reunify Ireland, allow NI to stay within the EU.

However, I have a question: do people think NI voted Remain so emphatically because they see the best of both worlds: 70% of jobs being financed by the UK, the NHS and so forth, plus the benefits of EU membership, given that- and I have no supporting evidence! - I assume NI is a net beneficiary of EU cash?

Thanks to everyone taking the time to explain. FTR I knew the importance of the GFA before June 23rd 2016! Also, though this might be neither here nor there, I have visited both Ireland and NI.

work, not 'wok' 😊

A bigger blinder of that kind though (I thought this the other day) would be for the EU to offer NI automatic EU membership if they left the UK. Would still need long and delicate negotiations (and GFA required referenda etc). But I think it would play better than Varadkar standing out on his own with such an offer. Still would need to be very carefully put and there is still the massive question of the Unionists. All of them, not just the DUP. (I'm absolutely no expert on Ireland by the way, have just been intensely interested over the years. Equally no 'skin in the game'.)

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=en-gb.facebook.com/Channel4News/videos/if-you-were-to-have-a-no-deal-brexit-that-would-make-a-united-ireland-much-more-/373077413645353/&ved=2ahUKEwjDsOrnkeTkAhUxXRUIHZtqDqYQwqsBMAR6BAgLEAg&usg=AOvVaw3aeHcZQrhM-H1SZ71X-LB8" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=en-gb.facebook.com/Channel4News/videos/if-you-were-to-have-a-no-deal-brexit-that-would-make-a-united-ireland-much-more-/373077413645353/&ved=2ahUKEwjDsOrnkeTkAhUxXRUIHZtqDqYQwqsBMAR6BAgLEAg&usg=AOvVaw3aeHcZQrhM-H1SZ71X-LB8
Hopefully it works this time but if not look up channel 4 news United Ireland. It's an interview with Denis Staunton of the Irish Times about how the backstop will actually make it more difficult to achieve an United and why a no deal will make it easier.

Thanks, I ended up googling it and have found it, viola.

sabbatical an interesting idea, but can you imaging the howls of outrage coming from Farrargo?! The cries of 'interference!'

To be fair, I imagine some within the EU might also object at the beneficial, preferential treatment offered as a bribe to NI!

Also, and again I am no expert! I wonder if the Irish economy would withstand taking on NI?

Miljah, I think there's an underlying assumption that a united Ireland is a goal for the Republic- and I just don't think that is true.

Politically, it probably wouldn't play well to say so, but practically, there had been no moves to make it happen since the GFA.

Personally, I would think Varadker had lost the head if he went offering re-unification.

To take on all of the tribal divisions that still run very very deep in NI?
To take on the cost of the public sector there?
To allow Shinners to have a stronger voice in running our Government into the ground?

Both members of my family and I work between NI and the Republic- I don't recognise the fear of travelling there that is mentioned upthread.

I recognise that, in NI, assumptions are made about me and my political leanings as soon as I mention my name (based on the "ethnicity" of my name/my children's names/the sports we play/the schools we attend).

We are still a long long way from being able to integrate the 2 parts of the island into one country.
I have no intention of being party to rushing that process, just because, in deciding on Brexit, the UK has found NI to be inconvenient.

The Ireland economy would struggle to cope. I think that would put people off. As well as the civil unrest implications.
But unlike the stupid shitstorm we are bringing on ourselves, there is a possibility that Ireland would vote in favour because it was worth it. But, again, as with Scottish support for independence, it is arrogant of England to assume there would be comprehensive support.

I am Irish, living in Ireland and I know one person who would possibly be pro a united Ireland. Everyone else is emphatically No Way! on that topic. So while it might square things up nicely for the British (should have considered this move a hundred years ago and avoided so much trouble and heartbreak) it does not suit the Irish. Those Murphy's are really being the fly in the ointment, aren't they?

A bigger blinder of that kind though (I thought this the other day) would be for the EU to offer NI automatic EU membership if they left the UK.

That has already been confirmed by the EU, back in May 2017.

OP, it’s not for the people of Ireland north and south to solve the Brexit problem by rushing towards reunification. It’s a problem for the U.K. to resolve.

What do you mean by “Protestant rights”, as a matter of interest?

www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/a-united-ireland-would-be-a-different-state-leo-varadkar-warns-1.3978985
Leo Varadkar made his thoughts clear on the complexities of this issue in Belfast last month. He definitely put Mary-Lou in her box. A well thought out, considered argument imo.

Both members of my family and I work between NI and the Republic- I don't recognise the fear of travelling there that is mentioned upthread.

Same here. DH still works over the border. We feel much more safe in our quiet Northern village than we’ve ever did in the Dublin suburb that we lived in previously.

I don’t know anyone in our ROI family that is seriously pro reunification. Yeah it’s a nice romantic idea, but for the most part the thought of supporting the bloated public sector and having to handle sharing power with the DUP/TUVers, plus any threat of unionist unrest is enough for people to reject it.

The people of NI have suffered for years and it's part of the UK ,so why should NI break from the UK to make it easy for a Tory government? Why don't other UK areas break away if they want a brexit. It's not the Republic's brexit

This is the UK's mess to resolve.

It’s nothing at all to do with “Protestant rights”!

Fucking hell.

The only people mentioning a United Ireland is British people and then only as a solution to Brexit. Most in NI were happy with the way things were, Brexit has screwed that up. At this moment in time I wouldn't vote for a UI, there are still way too many issues that won't be resolved easily. I honestly can't see it happening in my lifetime.

Chocolate thank you - I hadn't seen that piece.
He did that well.

I think we have been very fortunate that Varadker, Coveney and Martin have held the line on a united front in their approach to Brexit.

the introduction of the idea coming from the Irish government, that reunification with everyone's Rights being spelled out and legislated for, where possible; a long game that would reunify Ireland, allow NI to stay within the EU

See, I just don't see an appetite for that here in Ireland.
I do see an appetite in Britain for the "NI problem" to just go away.

But, as it's not Ireland's difficulty, I don't see why we should tie ourselves in knots to solve it.

I feel very sad for Northern nationalists for some of whom re-unification remains a dream.
I think they must feel quite abandoned when they read threads like this.

I don't know why NI can't stand on its own two feet.

See, I just don't see an appetite for that here in Ireland.
I do see an appetite in Britain for the "NI problem" to just go away.

Agree.

I don't know why NI can't stand on its own two feet.

Our feet were cut off us and one each given to U.K and ROI. We’re still working on growing new ones.

Surely the UK should sort out their own mess