COULD Varadker play a blinder?

[Miljah]

First, I have no personal skin in the game. Apart from the bomb scares of the 70s in British towns. And the nightly news.

Secondly, I have tried to keep abreast of the political landscape in NI, while understanding that there are complexities way beyond my ken at play.

And thirdly, a MN suspension, maybe six months ago, as an outsider musing whether it was deeply patronising to the people of NI to assume, as a matter of course, that the only way to broker differences was bombs and guns, there surely had to be other ways?- I was told in no uncertain terms that these were the only tools available, and that I should butt out as a non NI person....

SO. What if Varadker, highly unlikely, I know, were to offer reunification with an undertaking to respect Protestant rights? I recognise the economics, here- 70% of NI jobs are financed UK public sector. Could the republic pick up that slack? Would NI people earning that public sector cash want to jeopardise that?

But might that represent the first inkling of a way forward for NI? EU membership (and I'd bet ££ (I don't have 'euro, euro' on my keyboard! 😊) in order to sweeten that seismic shift; especially now NI must recognise that much of GB didn't even know, or care, about the GFA?

How soon before I am reported, in outrage?....

If the GFA is redundant, then what for peace in NI?

People learn how to be neighbours and accept that others have different; race, religion, opinions, cultures, etc.

You also have clearly no clue how the NI economy works, all Island business is desperately important and we are already feeling the effects of Brexit uncertainty deeper than anywhere else in the UK

I am aware of the crossings over the invisible border every day and some need to cross as part of their day-to-day life.

Seem to remember that EU had pledged to help Ireland with consequences arising from any border Control. UK should do same for northern island too.

This fluffy woolly bullshit you are knitting won't get us to Christmas. GFA was doing all the stuff you are bleating about.
I don't care if people in Indonesia have never heard of GFA or whatever you were talking about. They have the internet, they know when a negotiating partner is on its uppers because it has fucked its own economy and its reputation. Which is what No Deal would do. And you want us in that sort of negotiating position? I wonder why you actually do? I doubt its for the benefit of the UK.

Irish people are just not like you baby.

As an Irish person, I would just like to say that most Irish people are not like @Yadid either.

Most people I know are concerned about NI and the GFA. The situation in NI came about due to a botched partition 100 years ago. Unfortunately, the legacy of that partition is still there. It's not a question of "getting over it" as it has not yet gone away.

Ultimately, I would like to see a united Ireland. However, now is not the time. Suggesting a united Ireland to sort out the UK's mess would not be a sensible approach. I think we will ultimately get to a point where a united Ireland is a natural progression but we're a long way off that yet.

Jesus wept, what do you think we have doing all day every day for the last 20 years, getting along with our neighbours and living in peace. Stop painting us all out to be nutters.

No deal destabilises all that because not only will the economy will be in the shitter but there will be the constant cries from Sinn Fein about a united ireland. Fear and economic hardship, not a great combination. But as long as you’re alright jack.

What if Varadker, highly unlikely, I know, were to offer reunification with an undertaking to respect Protestant rights?
I don't even know where to start with this.

@MysteryTripAgain - Article 50 was signed by all EU members in 2009. There is nothing in Article 50 that references GFA. Nor is GFA part of UK constitution as demonstrated in law.

Not true. Because the Good Friday Agreement binds the British government on several points of law in Northern Ireland, it has de facto become a part of Constitution of the United Kingdom.

My view is that in a no deal the GFA becomes inoperable and becomes void under the Vienna convention. Logic is that after UK leaves EU, it becomes impossible for NI to comply with EU policies (which are referenced in the GFA) as NI is no longer in the EU

Not true. The sections of the Vienna convention you are referring to are not applicable as the UK are deliberately contravening the GFA, rather than unforeseen circumstances making it inoperable.

That would be mean the EU becomes a bloc from which there is no possible escape.

Not true. UK can leave and still ensure they are compliant with the GFA. They just don't want to.

Punch line is that GFA makes reference to EU policies, but neither EU law nor Article 50 make reference to GFA. Hence the impossibility condition for treaties becoming void kicks in and there is no GFA.

Complete misinterpretation of the Vienna Convention.

Incorrect logic. Article 50 signed all EU members in 2009 anticipates the possibility that no deal may occur. Nothing in Article 50 that references the GFA. Nor is there anything in Article 50 that states a member can only leave if the other members agree and will not be disadvantaged in any way to any of the remaining members.

Incorrect logic on your part. It is irrelevant that A50 has no reference to GFA. The UK has an obligation not to take action that will contravene the GFA. They can leave. However, if they had any integrity, they would leave in a manner that complies with the GFA.

"what happens to GFA/Borders if either ROI or UK invoke Article 50?"

A mistaken assumption on the part of the Irish that the UK would act with integrity.

Obviously not a scholar of the Vienna convention

You really should try reading it yourself before spouting that nonsense.

They have the internet, they know when a negotiating partner is on its uppers because it has fucked its own economy and its reputation. Which is what No Deal would do

That’s what remain supporters want to think. I see it very differently. Business is based on deals, not history. The face that WWII countries are big trade partners proves that to be the case.

What are you talking about?

How do we get from Day One of No Deal to this glorious future? Do you expect people to sit around and wait?
And, as others have said, peace and prosperity was exactly what GFA was about. In a way, it's touching you didn't even realise it because GFA was working so well.
Foolish beyond measure to fuck it up.

Not true. Because the Good Friday Agreement binds the British government on several points of law in Northern Ireland, it has de facto become a part of Constitution of the United Kingdom

Supreme Court has ruled otherwise.

Not true. The sections of the Vienna convention you are referring to are not applicable as the UK are deliberately contravening the GFA, rather than unforeseen circumstances making it inoperable

When Article 50 was signed in 2009, brexit was not known as vote was not until 2016. Brexit was not even heard of then. Never forget that Article 50 was signed by Ireland.

It is irrelevant that A50 has no reference to GFA

It is very relevant as signed by Ireland.

A mistaken assumption on the part of the Irish that the UK would act with integrity

Assumptions carry no weight in law. EU law was modified in 2009, but British irish council ignored.

You really should try reading it yourself before spouting that nonsense

So quote the Articles of the Vienna convention that states GFA takes priority over EU law?

Then quote EU law that states members are not allowed to leave if others are not happy?

Then quote EU law that references GFA.

The legal precedences go on forever

Good Lord. You don't get it, do you. I thought Brexiteers understood "feelz". Surely this is the one bit of "feelz" that really matters. Peace and prosperity feelz. Now. In NI. Because of GFA.

@MysteryTripAgain - Assumptions carry no weight in law. EU law was modified in 2009, but British irish council ignored

And I have repeatedly acknowledged that this was an error on the part of the Irish. We should know by now that the UK have rarely exhibited integrity wrt Ireland or NI.

It is very relevant as signed by Ireland

A50 and GFA are separate agreements. It is up to individual signatories to decide how best to comply with their obligations under any agreement and to consider the impact on any other obligations they may have.

So quote the Articles of the Vienna convention that states GFA takes priority over EU law?

I've done that on a different thread. I've no intention of digging it out again as you ignore anything that refutes your point.

Never forget that Article 50 was signed by Ireland.

What is your point? All EU countries signed it. Ireland and UK signed the GFA.

Then quote EU law that states members are not allowed to leave if others are not happy?

Nobody has said the UK cannot leave if others aren't happy. They can leave. They can choose to leave with integrity by complying with the GFA or choose to leave without integrity and break the GFA.

A mistaken assumption on the part of the Irish that the UK would act with integrity.

^

This

We were told time and time again by TM and others that the British government would respect the GFA. We all believed this to be the case because no one in their right mind would want to mess around with peace in NI. We now know that they really couldn't care less about NI or the ROI and cannot be trusted. Delivering the Brexit unicorn and ensuring Boris Johnson remains PM is all that matters .The increased bullying of Ireland to back down and statement warning Ireland about food shortages (Patel) and medicine shortages (Barclay) are just shameful.

Integrity and trust are not things you can associate the current UK government. They lie about everything!

@MysteryTripAgain - Supreme Court has ruled otherwise.

I assume you are referring to the NI case? That is not what they found at all.

Actually I don’t think the Irish believed that the British would necessarily behave with integrity with regards to Brexit. Hoped for the best but prepared for the worst.
Hence the Irish government and diplomats working very hard even before the 2016 vote happened to get the rest of the EU in agreement that the GFA was one of the 3 most basic issue that had to be agreed before a trade agreement could even be discussed.
Even now the EU are making their position clear about what happens after a jump off a cliff Brexit. The UK then has to deal with the new EU commissioner for trade, Irishman Phil Hogan, to get a trade deal.

And then there was also the lobbying in the US. Trump was always a lost cause but will be gone before he gets a trade deal through. Congress and Senate will be a huge challenge for the UK.

@Inniu - Actually I don’t think the Irish believed that the British would necessarily behave with integrity with regards to Brexit. Hoped for the best but prepared for the worst.

@MysteryTripAgain is harking back to the writing of A50. Apparently, Ireland should have anticipated that the UK might want to brexit and thus should have insisted on including reference to the GFA in A50.

The negotiations with Hogan should be interesting to watch.

@Miljah You haven't explained what you mean by "Protestant Rights"? Do you imagine that Protestants in the Republic have fewer rights than other people? Or that the Troubles were about religion?

The negotiations with Hogan should be interesting to watch.

Our boy Phil is a tough cookie.

You haven't explained what you mean by "Protestant Rights"?

Maybe we could allow them to keep their toasters on the countertop (Derry Girls reference).

@whyamidoingthis

Haha whyamidoingthis we could promise not to torture them with Abba songs!!! 😏
Sorry I can't promise them that........... 'you are the dancing queen,young and free only 17'.......

@whyamidoingthis 😀😀😀

Maybe guarantee DOP status for Fifteens?

I'm Irish and there are a whole lot of practical reasons why nobody is rushing for unity. But that doesn't mean it's unwanted either. It's like wanting to go and visit family who you are not that close to, but really not being able to afford it, and then also remembering that time when some of the family were a bit horrible to you or other family members, and hoping that they wouldn't kick off again, or thinking it's best to stay away in case they do. So while visiting family is a lovely idea, it might not be practical straight away. In any case, you can't ever go unless invited.

If you were invited, you might decide to go anyway if you could, because you might feel it would be worth it in the long run, to see most of your family, and decide it's the right thing to do, even though you're still a bit anxious about the finances and the awkward family members.

I hope that that analogy is not offensive to anybody.

I think that analogy nails it.