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Brexit

Westminstenders: Supreme Democracy

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 15/09/2019 19:45

Tuesday is the big day about prorogation.

The Supreme Court hears the case of Cherry and Miller against the government.

This could test the constitution and the union. The Supreme Court sits as both as a Scottish Court and and English Court and applies Scottish / English law accordingly. And there are differences. It is possible that prorogation might only be illegal under one or the other but would have effect on parliament. Or its possible that the Supreme Court might decide to uphold the government position.

What is encouraging is the constitutional expert blogs which suggest that they lean to the court intervening. It's important that for the A50 case the Supreme Court referenced the arguments in these blogs.

But let's not get too carried away.

As it is Joe Moor, former director of legislative affairs at 10 Downing Street wrote in today's Telegraph that Johnson could merely prorogue again from Oct 14 "until at least Nov 6" thus preventing parliamentary scrutiny of no deal which would help enable in effect illegally. The Times also reported Cummings as having said this to advisors.

This has been dismissed by legal experts, but the point remains there is a willingness to both frustrate parliament and be as obstructive as possible in the days leading up to 31st.

There is also the 'Nobile Officium' Court action designed to stop illegal no deal by allowing the courts to write a letter to the EU to request an extension of Johnson refuses to.

It remains to be seen if it has even a chance of success.

The British press has been full of comments of optimism for a deal this weekend. This is after there was positive noises in a similar vein from Brussels. These has since been largely dismissed as mere political will with no practical progress. The British optimism has also been dismissed as mere posturing. And Priti Patel "misspoke" when she appeared to suggest that no deal was no policy this morning.

Other rumours include the French willing to grant a 2year extension but not a 3month one out of fear this will happen repeatedly. The French are now pushing for a deal and relaxing their approach as such (but Germany won't compromise the single market and Ireland the GFA so its all talk).

And do not forget, for all the talk of a deal there are certain time restrains.

Apparently Nikki da Costa has a timetable to get a deal through parliament in 'just ten days' on a spreadsheet. So that gives you an idea that the 19th October is possibly the last day to get a deal in front of parliament if you completely accept that we are leaving without any extension. This neglects the issue that a new deal isn't on the table from the EU and the backstop isn't going anywhere.

A last minute deal or no deal situation is highly risky with the ERG on one side and hard core Remainers who think Johnson won't defy the Benn Amendment and thus will try and block a deal to the last

It seems that we will have a game of cat and mouse until the bitter end.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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dontcallmelen · 17/09/2019 19:36

Congratulations Placemats 🍾

squid4 · 17/09/2019 19:37

I'm feeling a bit irritated with lib dems around now. I feel like they're being deliberately divisive at a time when we need to (attempt) unity

I also feel like they have no idea / don't care what's happening to people in this country unless they're middleclass southerners

By extension, everything I read in the guardian makes me pretty angry

I was quite supportive of lib dems in pre-austerity days (when I felt I couldn't vote for labour due to their record on Iraq)

Basilpots · 17/09/2019 19:39

Rape prosecutions are at a 10 year low was announced 5 days ago.

rightsinfo.org/rape-convictions-at-record-low/

ragged · 17/09/2019 19:46

Hey... may I ask question about Brexit?
When will Supreme court panel give it's decision? Not today, I guess.

ListeningQuietly · 17/09/2019 19:48

ragged
Next Monday probably

squid
LibDem have zero chance of an outright majority
but if they can drag Labour off the fence, they will have done a "good thing"

PerkingFaintly · 17/09/2019 19:49

OMG Peregrina, you are spot on!

Unless I'm being hard of thinking, surely that response to the prorogation petition is a smoking gun regarding intent!

prettybird · 17/09/2019 19:54

ragged - possibly but very unlikely on Friday, but more probably on Monday (or even later in the week).

thecatfromjapan · 17/09/2019 19:58

There was a lovely crowd outside the Supreme Court today.
I love chatting to people - the stories are always so interesting. And a really diverse group of people.
Obviously, the irony was that we were outside, intermittently following what was going on inside on our phones!

BigChocFrenzy · 17/09/2019 20:04

That's good you had such a lovely friendly crowd, thecat
Did they outnumber the shouty lot ?

Grinchly · 17/09/2019 20:08

Re the official response linking prorogation and Brexit - the two issues were linked in the petition wording:

"Parliament must not be prorogued or dissolved unless and until the article 50 period has been sufficiently extended or the UK’s intention to withdraw from the EU has been cancelled.”

So no smoking gun, I don't think.

Grinchly · 17/09/2019 20:08

Terrible double negative there, sorry Blush

thecatfromjapan · 17/09/2019 20:17

BigChoc Very much so. 🙂

Sadly, I think Gina Miller was ambushed & followed by them when she came out (after I left). ☹️

Joanna Cherry came out earlier & she and Jo Maugham spent some time talking with the group. Not shouting, talking.

prettybird · 17/09/2019 20:19

It's ok for the petition to be political in its linking of the two issues - but that doesn't negate yet another double negative Wink the need for the Government is to make it clear that the two are not linked (as Lord Keen is attempting to argue).

ragged · 17/09/2019 20:32

Thanks, Prettybird. Has anyone watched the arguments & evidence... depositions? How did they seem to go, today? Any feel for who won the crowd & even more important, who had the judges' attention?

PerkingFaintly · 17/09/2019 20:43

Ah, bum, I think you're right, Grinchly. That'll larn me to go back and check from the beginning.

Ah well. It's not like it's the only piece of evidence...

TheMShip · 17/09/2019 21:13

If someone gets hold of some of the govt communications around prorogue that make it clear the purpose was to prevent scrutiny by parliament or to run an unofficial election campaign, could that be entered as evidence now? Or is it too late?

DGRossetti · 17/09/2019 21:16

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/17/eu-given-brexit-draft-with-backstop-scrubbed-out-uk-sources-admit

theguardian.com
EU given Brexit draft with backstop scrubbed out, UK sources admit
Rowena Mason
6-7 minutes

Boris Johnson’s Brexit negotiators have so far only presented the EU with a draft of the withdrawal agreement with the backstop scrubbed out, UK government sources have confirmed.

In a move that has caused tensions with EU leaders, Johnson’s team are refusing to put forward a written proposal to Brussels at this stage for fear it will be rejected out of hand or publicly rubbished.

Instead, they want to wait until almost the last minute before the October summit before presenting a plan to the EU, with just two weeks before the UK is due to leave the bloc.

The UK government source said the two sides had debated alternatives to the backstop in written discussion documents – such as an all-Ireland regulatory zone and customs checks away from the border – but they would not be putting forward a legal text to the EU at this stage.

There have been reports that David Frost, the UK’s lead negotiator, is keeping a plan locked safe in his briefcase but the wording has not been shared with Brussels.

Frustration with the UK’s approach broke into the open on Monday as Xavier Bettel, the prime minister of Luxembourg, gave a press conference next to an empty podium following a meeting with Johnson, who refused to take part because of loud protests nearby. Bettel said the UK government needed to put on paper an alternative to the Irish backstop, and appeared to suggest that party political considerations might be standing in the way.

“I told him: ‘I hear a lot but I don’t read a lot.’ If they want to discuss anything we need to have it written [down] … Don’t put the blame on us because they don’t know how to get out of the situation they put themselves in,” Bettel said.

As the chaotic scenes were played out, the European commission issued a statement disclosing that its president, Jean-Claude Juncker, had told the prime minister it was his responsibility to come forward with legally operational solutions and that “such proposals have not yet been made”.

Johnson has brushed off the Luxembourg incident with a claim that he is still working towards a deal and believes EU leaders will want to strike an agreement because they have had a “bellyful” of Brexit.

He spoke to Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, on Tuesday morning, agreeing to have further discussions with her in New York at the UN general assembly next week. There are only three days left until the end of the 30-day deadline Merkel gave Johnson last month to come up with alternative solutions to remove the need for a backstop, which Eurosceptics in parliament refuse to vote for because it could keep the UK indefinitely in a customs union.

Johnson is also likely to meet Donald Tusk, the European council president, at the UN conference and No 10 hopes that some progress towards a deal could be made at that summit.

However, many in Brussels are sceptical there is enough time left to do a deal. It is just one month before the crucial EU summit on 17 October, where Johnson hopes to secure a deal, and six weeks before the UK is due to leave on 31 October unless it requests an extension.

Johnson is mandated by the UK parliament to seek a three-month extension if he does not strike a Brexit deal by then. He has insisted he will not do this but has not set out how he would avoid such an outcome.

Robert Buckland, the justice secretary, refused on Tuesday to rule out a second prorogation as part of No 10’s tactics to achieve a no-deal Brexit.

Asked on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme whether the current suspension of parliament could happen again, Buckland said: “Harold Wilson said a week is a long time in politics. It seems like an hour is a long time in politics at the moment.

“For me to sit here and imagine what might happen at the end of October, I think, is idle. What I do know, if we are able to, we will have a Queen’s speech in mid-October, there will be debate during that time and a vote as well, and perhaps a series of votes.

“Parliament has already shown its power. It had a week in September where it made pretty significant legislation. I think the idea that somehow parliament has been prevented from having its voice doesn’t seem to be borne out by events, frankly.”

Mistigri · 17/09/2019 21:18

Really interesting comment ( C&P'd below) from BTL on the Financial Times article about port chaos, that was quoted by BCF earlier. (FT is free to access today only for anyone who wants to read this first hand).

Does anyone have any info about the plan by FR authorities to refuse docking to inbound ferries if their lorry parks are full?

^1. vehicles will be held back from the port using measures which already exist. These measures result in long tailbacks starting a mile or so from the port at busy times (start of school summer holidays) or when there is an incident at the port (eg chemical spillage)

  1. The capacity for document checks before arrival in the Dover area does not exist and even if it did those carrying out the checks would be second guessing the French customs on which vehicles might be checked eg. for conformance with EU standards when they reach France
  1. The French ports (eg Calais) plan to hold a certain proportion of inbound vehicles for checks - either because their paperwork is incomplete or because they are in some other way suspect. Calais has enlarged its vehicle parks to take several thousand trucks. But these will fill fairly rapidly and the speed at which consignments can be cleared will vary according to many variables other than available space - not the least of which is the availability of trained staff.
  1. The French port authorities have said that once the Calais vehicle park is at capacity then inbound ferries will not be allowed to land. That in turn will reduce the capacity available for outbound traffic. Very quickly long queues will build in Northern France. Ironically that should in principle shorten the queues in SE England.

All of the above is interesting and worrying - especially if you live or do business in Leave voting Kent - but it will have another effect which was only touched on in Yellowhammer. Continental Hauliers will find the delays unacceptable. Some will refuse to take freight through the Channel ports - especially Dover and the Tunnel - and others will start charging a premium to do so. Some producers will divert their products to markets undisturbed by Brexit... The overall and inevitable effect is higher prices and shortages - especially of perishables. Similarly UK seaborne export of perishables will virtually cease because of a combination of tarriffs, NTBs and delays at the channel ports.

On a slightly different note. How well EU airports are prepared for an increase in airfreight to/ from 3rd country UK is not known - it's seems a fair guess that because nobody yet knows the likely extent of carrier substitution that little has been done to prepare.^

borntobequiet · 17/09/2019 21:20

I’m sorry, I’m very shallow. But both these Mash articles are funny.
www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/supreme-court-to-call-mail-online-comments-section-as-witness-20190917189109

ListeningQuietly · 17/09/2019 21:25

Am watching the programme about the Troubles at the moment on TV

Even I was surprised to read that 28,000 British Troops went into the Bogside and Derry on one night

BigChocFrenzy · 17/09/2019 21:37

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

I loved watching the Supreme Court today and I couldn’t quite figure out why.
And then I realised.

It was like the grown ups were in charge again.
It’s been a long while.

Alastair Stewart@alstewitn

Spot on.
The Justices' ability to make points, crisply and in good English, was a joy to listen to;
and their ability to make points, without shouting one another down or even having to catch the President's eye,
was a joyful display of good manners.
@UKSupremeCourt

DarkAtEndOfUK · 17/09/2019 21:38

borntobequiet, Newsthump has been outdoing itself frequently lately too. I liked this one newsthump.com/2019/09/14/boris-johnson-changes-pronouns-to-lying-twat-and-bellend/

DarkAtEndOfUK · 17/09/2019 21:41

frequently lately? Blush Of late, Newsthump has repeatedly soared to ecstatic heights of putdowns, how's that instead?

RedToothBrush · 17/09/2019 21:46

amp.ft.com/content/0a37d14c-d887-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17?__twitter_impression=true
UK accused of ‘misleading’ over no-deal Brexit ports disruption
Documents show most vehicles set to be turned away for wrong paperwork before reaching dockside

And in addition to the trucks turned away...

However another sensitive document from the DfT spells out that tailbacks outside Dover could stretch to around 150km.

“Queues could reach a peak of 8,500 vehicles, a two-day maximum delay and a 1.5 day average delay,” it said.

With a typical articulated lorry being about 16.5m long, a queue of 8,500 such vehicles would stretch for some 150km, the distance from Dover to Guildford in Surrey.

heads up, the FT pay wall is down until 4pm tomorrow so read away to your hearts content tonight

OP posts:
lonelyplanetmum · 17/09/2019 21:50

The Justices' ability to make points, crisply and in good English, was a joy to listen to;
and their ability to make points, without shouting one another down or even having to catch the President's eye,
was a joyful display of good manners.

Yes it makes me so mad that the gutter press shout bias etc.

You can see these mature judges are highly experienced and hugely intelligent and that they are listening carefully and will applying the law with objectivity and diligence.

If anyone hasn't the time to watch it on catch up I imposing the link to the SC blog.I am sure it will have been posted already but no harm in having a reminder.

The bit I hadn't understood (although I think it was mentioned up thread) is that the government accepts the Inner House of the Court of Session decision that the prorogation unlawful. lord Keen says he will take no issue with that part of the order. However " in so far as they seek to declare it null and of no effect he submits that they went too far and where they cannot go." So it was illegal but once done it can't be undone?

ukscblog.com

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