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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rule of Law

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 08/09/2019 14:16

We enter week 2 of what might be considered 'the end game'.

The Conservative Party has made it clear that liberals are not welcome in their ranks. It has become the Brexit Party.

Farage is talking of a pact, though Javid has said no. What would Javid know though, he's only in the Cabinet.

Amber Rudd has resigned. She will run as an independent in an unnamed constituency at the next election. The assumption must therefore be she has been talking to a few people this week about this, though whether that means she is a 'One Nation Tory' independent candidate or simply an independent isn't clear.

Some think that her departure will deal Johnson yet another blow at the polls. Others think as the cabinet members with the worst satisfaction rating amongst tory party members this will be viewed positively by leavers and give Johnson a bounce in the polls.

It been reported that Cummings has overruled Johnson on at least key decisions this week which raises the question of who is in charge and running the show.

Cummings has promised to make us all melt in the coming weeks as he takes a sledge hammer to constitutional convention. He's advised no 10 staff to be 'cool like Fonzies'. A reference to pulp fiction and to happy days. As some have commented if you think about Cummings as some one who has watched too much Tarantino it does make him make a lot more sense.

There are suggestions that Johnson will break the rule of law in refusing to ask for an extension and the No10 have a trick up their sleeve over loopholes. The most obvious thing here being to offer the EU a deal they can't possibly refuse agree too to smear them and to then make it impossible for the EU to agree to an extension which noises out of France seem to suggest anyway.

Tomorrow is going to be interesting...

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Basilpots · 09/09/2019 12:14

Wonder if the rebel Tory’s will boycott conference and try to work towards getting the bill to pass ??

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2019 12:15

Expect to see conference season feature ideas for an alternative Queens Speech or wrangling over what Johnson must include in order to get support for a QC....

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JustAnotherPoster00 · 09/09/2019 12:15

I was just sat here thinking to myself, cast all of your minds back to a few weeks after May got in, she was refusing to guarantee EU citizens rights when even Corbyn was saying back then that should never be on the table and Labour would guarantee their rights, urgh

Posters who try and blame this shit show on anything but the Tories are going to get short shrift from me today, Tory party decades old war and fear of Farage brings us the referendum, Tory party millionaires and dutiful sheep are going to kill so many of us in a No Deal situation for fear of an old socialist who wouldnt be able to get 50% of what he wants through parliament but is generally willing to compromise

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2019 12:16

Will rebel Tories be allowed to attend conference?

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RedToothBrush · 09/09/2019 12:19

Votes tonight are expected to run very late tonight (post 11pm)

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DGRossetti · 09/09/2019 12:19

In an ideal world, those opposed to No Deal - regardless of their ultimate views on Brexit - would use the next 5 weeks to hammer out an alternative Queens Speech, complete with person to become PM - in the even Boris' fails.

be curious what the arithmetic of parliament looks like on 14th October.

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2019 12:20

Sam Coates Sky @samcoatessky
Exc: No10 has seen polling that means if there was an election now, Boris Johnson would do worse than Theresa May, according to Jason Stein, who was a Tory special advisor and Amber Rudd aide until Saturday night

Here’s what he told me for a Sky News interview:

Westminstenders: The Rule of Law
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JustAnotherPoster00 · 09/09/2019 12:20

twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1171017492065636352

JustAnotherPoster00 · 09/09/2019 12:20

XPost sorry Red

fedup21 · 09/09/2019 12:22

Why does a Queen’s speech now need to be passed? Apologies for stupidness.

What does this actually mean? Who is likely to vote for/against? What happens if it isn’t passed?

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2019 12:22

Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84
1/4 Brexit party source on pact talks: ‘Nigel Farage has offered not to challenge Tory No Deal European Reform Group members as part of a wider alliance to deliver a “Thumping Majority”.

2/4 ’In return the Brexit Party would stand in Labour Leave voting seats unopposed by the Tories to concentrate the Leave –win opportunity.’

3/4 ‘There is a clear opportunity to deliver a joint majority of 70-100 seats and to re-calibrate UK politics.’

4/4 I understand that would mean the Brexit party wouldn’t field a candidate against David Jones in Clwyd West. ‘But only in a pact situation.’

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RedToothBrush · 09/09/2019 12:24

Com Res @comres
Our latest Westminster voting intention for @BritainElects

CON 31% (-)
LAB 27% (-)
LDM 20% (+4)
BRX 13% (-3)
GRN 3% (-1)
Other 5% (-1)

4th - 6th Sept

(Changes from ComRes/@Telegraph poll, 13th August 2019)

Full data tables here:
t.co/oej7oXkiRV

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RedToothBrush · 09/09/2019 12:25

inews.co.uk/news/politics/labour-mps-yvette-cooper-hilary-benn-deselection-general-election/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
70 Labour MPs including Yvette Cooper and Hilary Benn face deselection before next election
MPs have until Monday to inform Labour executive whether they intend to stand in next election amid fears of a 'purge' of anti-Corbyn MPs

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DGRossetti · 09/09/2019 12:25

3/4 ‘There is a clear opportunity to deliver a joint majority of 70-100 seats and to re-calibrate UK politics.’

That was said in 2017 ...

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2019 12:26

Oh that's from July...

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BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 12:27

Basilpots The last attempt to pass the WA was on 29 March
and it failed by 344 votes to 289

This shows who voted for / against / abstained:

commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/664?byMember=false

Basilpots · 09/09/2019 12:28

Cheers Continuity my dozy bugger is on there but he did vote for the deal once and judging by the mood on his Facebook page I think he would again. This might be a leave constituency but bar a few ‘angry puddings’ bouncing up and down there is little appetite for no deal.

Not sure how they can blame remainers for the bill failing that list looks ERG heavy to me.

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2019 12:28

If there is a GE before 20th November and Johnson loses he'd be shortest serving PM. If after he dodges the title. So some good news for Johnson as it looks like he probably has avoided this.

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Alsohuman · 09/09/2019 12:30

A Brexit Party/Tory alliance stands every chance of going badly wrong. It assumes all Tories are leavers. They’re not and many Tory retainers will hold their noses and join Ken Clarke in voting LibDem if there’s no Tory candidate.

Alsohuman · 09/09/2019 12:32

Remainers even! My iPad hates me too.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 09/09/2019 12:32

Adam Boulton
@adamboultonSKY
·
2h
Kevin from Irish Independent to BJ: When you talk about people being dead in ditches I don't think you understand what's been happening here.

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2019 12:33

I do think Johnson saying in Dublin today saying that if we have no deal that is a failure is significant.

Yes he can still blame it on the EU, but he is also setting himself to be framed as a failure by his own words too.

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JeSuisPoulet · 09/09/2019 12:33

Have reorganised my stash a bit as we are moving.

Heard the tail end of a very interesting radio interview with the Tory MP for Ashford. Apparently they have the highest number of Syrian immigrants in the whole country. When news of the disaster struck they had meetings and agreed how they should be housed without affecting those already on housing lists and agreed how many they would take. They took families only and have 147 the largest amount in the whole country - let that sink in. They have agreed to take 50 people per year who are part of families only.

Apparently he said they have spread all of them out along the district, all were keen to get kids into school and all are learning English. He says there has been no hard feeling or animosity towards them at all.

I have to say I was amazed not only at the low numbers, considering the rhetoric Leavers bought and how forward thinking he seems to have been on the issue. Medway refused to take any, citing longer lists for housing needs.

Peregrina · 09/09/2019 12:34

Then also you will get some 'Real Tories, True Tories' whatever we want to call them, standing in some seats, so we should get a nice split in the vote. If the Brexiters don't stand agains the ERG, some Labour voters are the sort who will never vote Tory. So........ all bets are off.

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