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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rule of Law

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 08/09/2019 14:16

We enter week 2 of what might be considered 'the end game'.

The Conservative Party has made it clear that liberals are not welcome in their ranks. It has become the Brexit Party.

Farage is talking of a pact, though Javid has said no. What would Javid know though, he's only in the Cabinet.

Amber Rudd has resigned. She will run as an independent in an unnamed constituency at the next election. The assumption must therefore be she has been talking to a few people this week about this, though whether that means she is a 'One Nation Tory' independent candidate or simply an independent isn't clear.

Some think that her departure will deal Johnson yet another blow at the polls. Others think as the cabinet members with the worst satisfaction rating amongst tory party members this will be viewed positively by leavers and give Johnson a bounce in the polls.

It been reported that Cummings has overruled Johnson on at least key decisions this week which raises the question of who is in charge and running the show.

Cummings has promised to make us all melt in the coming weeks as he takes a sledge hammer to constitutional convention. He's advised no 10 staff to be 'cool like Fonzies'. A reference to pulp fiction and to happy days. As some have commented if you think about Cummings as some one who has watched too much Tarantino it does make him make a lot more sense.

There are suggestions that Johnson will break the rule of law in refusing to ask for an extension and the No10 have a trick up their sleeve over loopholes. The most obvious thing here being to offer the EU a deal they can't possibly refuse agree too to smear them and to then make it impossible for the EU to agree to an extension which noises out of France seem to suggest anyway.

Tomorrow is going to be interesting...

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JeSuisPoulet · 09/09/2019 12:34

That was on BBC Kent on school run btw - no idea if you can get it on a podcast!

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2019 12:37

A Brexit Party/Tory alliance stands every chance of going badly wrong. It assumes all Tories are leavers.

More than that, there are plenty of Tories would would baulk at the idea of voting for the Brexit Party too.

Certainly I can think of a few North Manchester Area constituencies with high immigrant populations who might be pro leave, pro Tory but absolutely anti Farage. The small business owner types in particular.

There are certain assumptions going on here that might not hold true (and I don't believe will hold true).

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BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 12:38

red Passing the Queen's Speech has traditionally been seen as a Confidence issue,
since failing to do so means the govt can't actually do anything new;
they can only continue the normal "housekeeping" business of govt

However, I don't see anywhere stating a VoNC is required
Normally the Opposition would leap to do this,
but maybe they want a GE later, once the real effects of No Deal start to bite on ordinary voters

Failing to pass the QS is imo when BJ would probably resign - handily also before he has to ask for an extension

  • and when the Rebel Alliance have 14 days to agree on his replacement

If they can't, there will be a GE, with BJ still caretaker PM and still making the decisions

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/votes-confidence-queen’s-speech-and-fixed-term-parliaments-act

"A Queen’s Speech is the first indication that the government can demonstrate it can command confidence.
However, the vote in itself is not a strict confidence motion."

Basilpots · 09/09/2019 12:39

Isn’t the flaw in Nigel’s plan that even in Labour leave areas there were still more remain Labour voters than leave ??

During the EU elections weren’t the poorest turnouts in Labour leave areas. I know in GE the turnout is much higher.

Or am I making that up too?

BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 12:39

Well, if Labour deselect a bunch of MPs, that moves the "chaotic extremists label" from the Tories right back on Labour

A gift that might make the difference and give BJ a good working majority

OublietteBravo · 09/09/2019 12:41

If there is a GE before 20th November and Johnson loses he'd be shortest serving PM. If after he dodges the title. So some good news for Johnson as it looks like he probably has avoided this.

Unless he loses a VoNC (followed by a GNU) or resigns in the interim.

JeSuisPoulet · 09/09/2019 12:42

Honestly think someone in Labour is being paid by Russia. You couldn't make up how many huge and terribly bad choices they have made over the last 3 years.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 12:43

JeSuisPoulet This chart shows where the Syrian refugees have been settled in the UK, by region

Westminstenders: The Rule of Law
yolofish · 09/09/2019 12:44

I know this is immaterial, but I think to prorogue Parlt in a middle of a national crisis is fucking DISGRACEFUL. All MPs of whatever political colour, should be required to work their way through this shitshow.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 09/09/2019 12:44

Well, if Labour deselect a bunch of MPs, that moves the "chaotic extremists label" from the Tories right back on Labour

Optics dont look good right now for it for sure but it is a normal Labour process pre Blair thats been re-instated, keeps the MP answerable to their CLP, had this been in place people like Hooey, Mann and their ilk would have been long gone

BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 12:46

That's completely material, yolo
very important in whether we are a fully functioning democracy

fedup21 · 09/09/2019 12:47

If Parliament is suspended tonight-as is looking likely-what do the MPs and the PM actually do for the next 5 weeks?

Basilpots · 09/09/2019 12:47

I know this is immaterial, but I think to prorogue Parlt in a middle of a national crisis is fucking DISGRACEFUL. All MPs of whatever political colour, should be required to work their way through this shit show.

^^ X 1000.

Nothing short or irresponsible especially with issues it causes in NI.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 09/09/2019 12:49

If Parliament is suspended tonight-as is looking likely-what do the MPs and the PM actually do for the next 5 weeks?

For Corbyn, same thing he;s been doing most weekends since becoming Leader of the Labour party, campaigning

BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 12:49

poster Then they should leave it until after this GE
It's a gift to the rightwing media

If they don't, then that's another group of people putting their own preferences before stopping No Deal
Ridiculous behaviour

BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 12:50

That was re Labour deselecting MPs

OublietteBravo · 09/09/2019 12:50

I still can't quite believe there is discussion in the MSM about whether the government will obey the law. How did we get here?

We’re pretty much a failed state.

Horehound · 09/09/2019 12:50

What are they voting for today??
And if parliament is closed from tonight and an election can't be held til mid November does that not mean we are done and dusted and it's a no deal on 31st Oct??

BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 12:51

It should only be in exceptional circumstances, e.g. as bad as O'Mara or Hoey

JustAnotherPoster00 · 09/09/2019 12:52

deselecting MPs

Re-selection please Grin

Yeah, agreed at conference and not in Corbyn's control but I agree now is not the time

BigChocFrenzy · 09/09/2019 12:53

No, Horehound

Parliament returns on 14 October - still some possibilities then to stop No Deal on 31 October

colouringinpro · 09/09/2019 12:57

in my dreams the Tory rebels, TIG, Greens, de-selected Labour MPs and Lib Dems all join to form a mega Remain Alliance. Tories and Brexit party are destroyed. We start to rebuild.

The prorogation is totally outrageous. Apart from the final appeal stage of the Cherry? Bill in Scotland, is there anything anyone can do? Do MPs meet elsewhere in a people's parliament?

JeSuisPoulet · 09/09/2019 12:58

So what do we think will BoZoCum and the extremists be doing while they have no opposition? I was wondering whether they will focus on the "how to deal with Brexit" info campaign a bit more, or do we think they are trying to leave everyone in the dark? I get why they would - they can pretend Brexit under them would have been a golden age with no issues etc. However I did wonder if by law (pfft) they had to explain risks and mitigate - seems unlikely given the lies they spout constantly. However doing this without opposition pointing it out to the media/public/highlighting the worst bits, could be a way of cushioning them from the worst?

JeSuisPoulet · 09/09/2019 12:59

Colouring didn't Rory say he would meet MPs and set up an alternative parliament?

JustAnotherPoster00 · 09/09/2019 13:01

Victoria Derbyshire
@VictoriaLIVE
·
2h
🎙️ You don’t want the Conservatives to have an outright majority at the next election?

🗣️ That is the conclusion I have reached. I think it would be a bad thing for the country.

@margotjamesmp , who was kicked out of the Tory party