Westminstenders: The Rule of Law

[RedToothBrush]

We enter week 2 of what might be considered 'the end game'.

The Conservative Party has made it clear that liberals are not welcome in their ranks. It has become the Brexit Party.

Farage is talking of a pact, though Javid has said no. What would Javid know though, he's only in the Cabinet.

Amber Rudd has resigned. She will run as an independent in an unnamed constituency at the next election. The assumption must therefore be she has been talking to a few people this week about this, though whether that means she is a 'One Nation Tory' independent candidate or simply an independent isn't clear.

Some think that her departure will deal Johnson yet another blow at the polls. Others think as the cabinet members with the worst satisfaction rating amongst tory party members this will be viewed positively by leavers and give Johnson a bounce in the polls.

It been reported that Cummings has overruled Johnson on at least key decisions this week which raises the question of who is in charge and running the show.

Cummings has promised to make us all melt in the coming weeks as he takes a sledge hammer to constitutional convention. He's advised no 10 staff to be 'cool like Fonzies'. A reference to pulp fiction and to happy days. As some have commented if you think about Cummings as some one who has watched too much Tarantino it does make him make a lot more sense.

There are suggestions that Johnson will break the rule of law in refusing to ask for an extension and the No10 have a trick up their sleeve over loopholes. The most obvious thing here being to offer the EU a deal they can't possibly refuse agree too to smear them and to then make it impossible for the EU to agree to an extension which noises out of France seem to suggest anyway.

Tomorrow is going to be interesting...

I know why pur democracy is in such shit. There are no gentlemen/women in Parliament

^^ This.

And politicians who put themselves or party before county and are too scared to say no.

You'd argue that if it's such an emergency, Parliament should be sitting and active to either stop it happening or to ensure all necessary legislation is in place (i.e. the legislation required for NI to keep functioning).

And if we'd demonstrated no reason for an exte3or were just refused one.

Write a letter to the EU saying we don't have a reason for an extension, seems to be the latest idea

I thought the letter had been written for him.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1168560598650621953.html

Act of Parliament are very complicated to read.

Not sure if this question has already been asked. If there was a vote of no confidence on Monday and someone else could form a government (JC/Another) how long could they conceivably be in power for given that Johnson has completely lost his majority with all the sackings and resignations?

Would they be able to ask the Queen to revoke the prorogation and then pass the WA or version of it before 31st October?

if the government declare no deal an emergency, then how do the opposition argue otherwise if they think no deal is a disaster

How about the old chestnut: "Failure to plan on your part, does not constitute an emergency on mine."

Dear God can we not find a job for IDS that removes him from any sort of think tankery.

Something where he can do no harm from others.

Know of him through distant family. He means well but is easily led apparently.

See I think 'releasing Yellowhammer' (didn't we see this last October anyway on these threads?) may be used as a warm up for CCA. Panic sets in, we are put on curfews to ensure we don't loot or riot...they can hardly say we wouldn't know what to stock up on if the petrol risk and meds risk and food risks come out. Seems a bit early right now though...

Ellie If BJ is replaced as PM, then the new PM takes control

and can e.g.

Cancel prorogation
Ask the EU for an A50 extension
Ask the HoC to approve a GE
or - if the EU refuses an extension - put the WA before the HoC to be voted on
He could Revoke if all else fails

How long they stay in office depends on how long the Rebel Alliance agrees and has a majority in the HoC
but if it goes to plan, then probably only a couple of weeks,
just long enough to get an extension and a GE before Brexit

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7440281/French-foreign-minister-says-NON-Brexit-delay-October-31.html
EU chief Guy Verhofstadt calls a Brexit delay 'unacceptable' and suggests an election SHOULD be called as France threatens to veto an extension beyond October 31 despite Remainer MPs' new law
Jean-Yves Le Drian said delay to Brexit 'isn't possible' under current conditions
Guy Verhofstadt agreed, said delay 'unacceptable' unless 'deadlock' resolved

It will be interesting to see how leavers react to Yellowhammer. When I told my ex Leaver friend she said it wasn't real as she hadn't seen it, then moved on to it was the worst case scenario and it wouldn't get to that.

I think we won't see that until the week or two before and then CCA will be used to "ensure we don't increase risk to national security in a time of crisis" or similar.

JeSuis Asking to have Yellowhammer released doesn't increase the danger of CCA being invoked

If the govt find it useful to release Yellowhammer, then they'll do so anyway

The public deserve to have the information
and MPs certainly need to - afaik, it hasn't been shown to them ?

Yellowhammer is probably being updated / rewritten right now to be much less alarming !

Then they'll keep a worst case version handy, e.g. for use in invoking CCA

@RedToothBrush

First - thank you for threads.
I'm an 'entryist' but did just read the CCA albeit briefly (& def not in full).

It doesn't give the government carte blanche in my view. It allows regulations only in respect of the 'emergency' ( which is itself strictly defined and I'm struggling to see circumstances which would pass the legal test of 'emergency' in the first instance).

In other words - if there were say major civil disobedience gvt could eg impose a curfew but I don't see their power could extend to revoking the Extension Act (which would be a political decision rather than a practical response to an 'emergency'.

Various senior legal commentators saying same on Twitter.

If government tried it on, I'd expect an urgent application for a judicial review of gvt decision (by Rebel Alliance/Jo Maugham). That could be heard v quickly ie next day. Basis for the judicial review would be gvt was acting ultra vires & exceeding its powers. If the gvt tried to delay/appeal the court should insist status quo ( ie Extension Act) be upheld in the meantime. Lots of other legal arguments (good ones) to support this position - eg risk of irreparable harm if status quo not maintained.

I hope that makes sense.

@secretbarrister is good right now on possible charges against ministers if they conspire to break the law.

Tom Watson will go to ground because of the Carl Beech / Exaro case

I want to like TW, but these shenanigans showed him to have pretty crappy judgement, which has really undermined my confidence in him generally.

I thought they had, around the time of the WA? Maybe a redacted version but it was mentioned around then I'm sure. Even on here we had bits of it!

I think getting it now would be better than last minute, for sure. It then can't, hopefully, be used to "shock and awe" civilians at the last minute into emotional behaviours. Maybe it is being released because only remainers will read it and take it to heart, thus increasing likelihood of one of "us" doing something illegal? Just wondering why now at this minute they are going to start letting us see, when they were meant to be funding a whole expensive campaign about how to deal with a No Deal and it wouldn't be buying a mug or t'shirt

Thanks BigChoc

Let's hope the Rebel Alliance have come up with a cunning plan over the weekend.

Not caught up so apologies if already posted.

amp.theguardian.com/society/2019/sep/08/london-gps-told-to-restrict-specialist-referrals-under-new-nhs-rationing-plan?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true

The changes were communicated in a letter from the North West London Collaboration of clinical commissioning groups (NWLCCCG), which funds NHS health services for more than two million Londoners, to key individuals including local MPs just under two weeks ago – on the same day the prime minister reinforced his commitment to funding the NHS while announcing he was suspending parliament.

Tbh i think this has already been rolled out in other areas its just no one has bothered to say.

Summary:

-Patients currently receiving treatment from more than one consultant may no longer be able to access treatment from both or all of the specialists.

• “Repatriation” of some acute treatment from various specialist hospitals to local ones.

• New scrutiny – described as “demand management” – of GPs who refer patients for acute treatment, with GPs being asked to look at “alternative ways” of dealing with patients’ needs.

• Reduction in intravenous feeds through “better prescribing”.

Eg from @JessicaSimorQC

Honestly, it’s not that hard to see this can’t work. There has to be an ‘emergency’ as defined in the Act for these powers to be used. Ironically it’s a ‘no deal’ exit that might precipitate such an emergency. Stopping no deal prevents rather than creates an emergency!

I mean....honestly....what an absolute clusterfuck brexit is.

The EU must just want rid of us now. And I don't blame them.

The UK is the drunk, racist, misogynistic uncle at the family gathering....:(

And while I’m watching the Rise of the Nazi documentary, I read this which is basically describing the same thing, ~90 years later

Downing Street borrows Vote Leave tactics by teeing up Brexit legal fight - Sky News
apple.news/A_T6Dlzj4QhudI9p81PG4Ng

But creating a chaotic environment because the public are convinced you are going to ND could create an emergency. Queues for petrol starting tomorrow, for example.

I'm feeling really quite anxious tonight what with the Cummings "melt" threat and all this grab bag stuff (certainly never come across that in the previous years its supposed to have been a thing). Timing is rubbish. i did stockpile in the Spring. Should I again? Any advice on managing this awful Brexit anxiety?

What happens if the EU do not give us an extension at the summit?