Pierre Briancon @pierrebi
"We are not going to do (extend) this every three months."
Mujtabi Rahman @mij_europe
French position is much more nuanced than this. Short thread, based on chats. Back to Paris tomorrow - will update if wildly different (doubtful) 1/
.@EmmanuelMacron is not scared of no deal. He still believes that this has gone on much too long; that the #Brexit debate threatens to derail his own agenda for EU if it drags on through 2020; that it is democratically unsound to want to block or reverse Brexit 2/
that any outcome in which UK remains in EU would now have more downsides than upsides (UK as sullen member; danger that other European nationalists will see the failure of Brexit as a Euro-elite plot; UK’s likely opposition to his ambitions on industrial/defence policy) 3/
Nonetheless, he's a little more relaxed about granting another A50 extension in Oct than he was in April. There is no longer the European election campaign to worry about. He believes he was right & others were wrong at the Council in April, which puts him in stronger position 4/
but also allows him to be magnanimous/flexible. He doesn’t want to undermine his own growing position of strength & influence in EU by annoying the others again & standing alone. Thus he will certainly be on the team which is reluctant to extend but will, once again, go along 5/
with majority view if it’s in favour of another delay (it will be). The problem will be “extend for what?” And how long? He and other EU leaders have always said they would allow more time for an election &/or 2nd referendum so there’s likely to be ready-made reason this time 6/
But Macron (& others) will be wary of seeming to be part of/in cahoots with so called Rebel Alliance in Commons. One French official: “There seems to be a view among the anti-Johnson forces in the UK that we approve of what they’re doing. But they’re also part of problem 7/
They can always say what they don’t want but never what they DO want. It’s like a cat that brings a half-dead mouse into your kitchen and looks at you as if to say ‘aren’t I clever?’ Well, we don’t necessarily want that mouse. Where does it take us?” 8/
On EU negotiations with @BorisJohnson, Macron was ready to take him at his word about wanting a serious negotiation after Elysee visit last month. Macron didn’t want to be branded as the wrecker of a deal. He wanted to - & did - call Johnson’s bluff 9/
He thought that there was room for some changes in WA (with Ireland’s blessing) that would have the same effect (no hard border/integrity of SM) but get Johnson off the semantic hook of rejecting anything called a “backstop” 10/
French view now seems to be that Johnson has failed to follow up on original Berlin/Paris/Biarritz offer of concrete ideas; that what's been put forward fails two tests above. There’s still a lingering belief that Johnson may shift before end of October 11/
After all, a deal with EU27 is now his easiest way out – only way out? - of the double-bind (no No-Deal; no early election) created by UK Rebel Alliance. But there is NO question of EU27 moving as far as Johnson seems to have assumed they would ENDS