Westminstenders: "He's in trouble". No he's not.

[RedToothBrush]

All day I've seen nothing but comments and tweets about he Johnson is in trouble and he's losing it.

They are wrong. He's far from done.

Take a step through the Looking Glass and the world looks different.

Those tweeting and reporting all care about events and are following closely. They are unrepresentative of the population as a whole who don't give two shiny shits.

And so we have the Trump dynamic.

The Liberal elite of broadcasters and journalists who are only seeing through the lens of their own judgement, not from the repackaged marketing.

Instead they are unwittingly publishing the images and slogans in the format Johnson wants and enter the minds of the public as planned.

The media are out of step with perceptions. And that's worrying. They don't see what's coming.

Johnson will have an election at some point. With the Tory party cleansed of moderates it is the Brexit Party one way or another, whether it be by takeover or coalition. And its riding high in the polling.

Even though even his brother has abandoned him, the future looks positive for Johnson as his opponents have a complete lack of self awareness and no understanding of the opposition they are taking on; they are campaigning in a way that plays into the hands of Johnson.

Despite his lack of majority and apparently absence of plan or speech notes, the biggest mistake you can make now is to write off Johnson.

You do so at your own peril.

Pay close attention to how authoritarians work and what's already happened in the US. We are on course to repeat it.

Sorry UK = US.
I think it is time for

"However it will not be the EU dictating at the summit. It will be the EU27 reaching a unified position as Nation State Members of the EU. "

Howabout That's how important decision are made in the EU
By the democratically elected heads of govt of the member states

it is a myth that the EU Commission controls the EU:
they are basically a civil service - a more pro-active one than is usual in the UK system, but the UK is not the only possible system

They can suggest actions, but EUCO can choose to refuse and do something different

The EU is the E27

DGR but in reality it is in UK's interests to catch up soon after Brexit, in case we do try to rejoin when the crisis hits.

I really can't see that happening. Not in my lifetime. Which is a heavy blow to mental well being for personal reasons around myself and my family and our "complicated "relationship within the UK, EU, US and rest of the world. My DF chose to leave Italy to be with my DM here, and as a result myself and 2 brothers were born UK citizens. However already one brother is now a US citizen, and I can foresee DS choosing to leave the UK (with blessing), leaving myself and DW here.

It's not a future we even imagined on the 22nd June 2016. DW has had 32 years to come to terms with the life-limiting disease that is MS, and even then at times, it's a bit too much. So 3 years is nothing.

Also contrary to popular belief, Merkel won't control what happens

Germany has the largest population and economy, but they have 1 vote in EUCO, same as everyone else.
If Merkel wants to give the UK yet another extension, she'll have to persuade every one of the other 26

War gaming further down the road ...

By whatever means, the UK requests an extension and is told, politely but firmly: We don't think that's appropriate

the WA comes back (Kinnock amendment) ?

Is defeated.

What then ? It's still no deal and Boris gets his election with a narrative that it's everybody elses fault but his, and he's a latterday supermac who'll see us alright ?

Rejoining ?

it depends on:

a) How we left, i.e. with a WA - the EU say a Fast Track Rejoin is possible - or a No Deal (no Fast Track)
and
b) How soon UK public opinion calms down over Brexit and the new demographics take over - we'd need at least the 67% pro-CM / EU of 1975 to even start applying
and
c) How soon until the EU trust us again

Even if I agreed with Torys on Brexit, I don't want to have to retire at 75 so they will never get my vote!

In a system based in a gentleman agreement, there is nothing to check and ‘punish’ someone who isn’t following the rules. Usually (social) pressure within the HoP has been enough to stop politicians doing whatever they want when in power.
What the U.K. is learning atm is that actually some people just dint care about a gentleman agreement or the social pressure etc,.. and can be quite happy to do what the f* they want if it suits them because THERE IS NOTHING THAT LEGALLY STOPS THEM FROM DOING SO.

So yes it’s the prorogation but it’s also the continual lies, the not turning up to committees, the refusing to divulge information etc... all nicely started by TM btw.

The current constitution isn’t fit for purpose.

DeRigueurMortis your post is exactly what I hear from the Leavers I know. It's not about the EU any more, it's about the importance of their vote. I get this totally and have always been worried that the backlash against any attempt to overturn the referendum would be huge.

Also worth noting that the EU might not be SAYING anything atm but it doesn’t mean they are not DOING anything.

Unlike the U.K. who is apparently ‘getting ready for No Deal’, France IS ready and has done two days of real time trials for No Deal in Calais etc... to check how it will go with the new border regime.

When the shit will hit the fan, it’s going to be harder for the U.K. because of its position, but it’s also going to be harder because they still will be less prepared than the EU (again)

We haven’t got a constitution, that’s a massive part of the problem.

Rejoining ? it depends on: c) How soon until the EU trust us again

I can tell you now that none of my family - in 3 EU countries - would want the UK in the EU again. How that translates up into the real world is a complex beast, but I doubt many EU27 politicians are going to be getting much support for a "Free the UK1" campaign. in fact quite the reverse. I can see a lot of EU parties suddenly becoming very popular with a "fuck the UK" policy - cf. de Gaulle. Especially if a post Brexit UK becomes entwined with the US (as de Gaulle warned and feared all along).

DG I think if we get to 19 October and nothing else has stopped No Deal, that there is at least a 50% chance that MPs pass the WA

The EU may think that too and hence refuse any extension
just to make the HoC finally choose WA or No Deal

• there seems no effective means to force a PM to Revoke, certainly not when left to the final few days

We should note that the EU think the WA vastly superior to No Deal, for both sides, not just for them.
Of course any Brexit is lose-lose for both sides, but most EU officials and heads of govt long ago sadly decided that Revoke is v v unlikely

DG "De Gaulle was right" is probably quite a popular saying now in the corridors of Berlaymont and in govt offices of 27 countries

We haven’t got a constitution, that’s a massive part of the problem.

We have, but it's not in one place, and not codified.

Bear in mind, the "problems" the US (claims it) has with the second amendment, a rigid constitution can be just as much a problem as a flexible one.

A bigger problem with the UKs constitution is every time it's had to "flex" it's always flexed in one direction. Towards privilege, power and wealth. Much like our legal system.

From where I sit, the WA is the only option, grim as that is.

Revoke would do untold damage to the perceived legitimacy of MPs
No Deal would do untold damage to the economy

The WA allows us to kick the can down the road far enough to get a trade deal rumbling along that then allows BINO or even application to rejoin in a few years.

Its a messy solution
but none of the tidy ones are real

We could rejoin, but say goodbye to our rebates and opt-outs, and we'd hae to commit to join the Euro.

Unlikely.

More likely we will end up in EFTA/EEA where we should have been in the first place.

The WA allows us to kick the can down the road far enough to get a trade deal rumbling along that then allows BINO or even application to rejoin in a few years.

We also need something like the SA reconciliation commission.

It's not about the EU any more, it's about the importance of their vote. I get this totally and have always been worried that the backlash against any attempt to overturn the referendum would be huge.

I find myself in agreement with you again Violet Paris. I personally would rather we were not in a position where we are leaving the EU but much as I hate to say it I also think we have to Leave. Majority Leave voting communities are often communities that have felt ignored by politicians and London for decades now. To remain in the EU would add further fuel to that sense of being ignored and Farage and his supporters will be all over that like a rash whilst I don't think the establishment parties and media have caught up enough yet to find a way to neutralise the backlash.

So I am just hoping that from somewhere there will be a deal that will minimize the damage done to the UK by leaving and not shaft the GFA. Sadly that still looks like a vain hope.

More likely we will end up in EFTA/EEA where we should have been in the first place.

That wouldn't be good enough though. You really have to work hard to get a grasp of how the sense of entitlement increases exponentially as you inch up the pecking order. Hence my Milton quote upthread.

Besides, once the EU has dropped the dead loss weight that is the UK, it can get down to the serious business of implementing all the reforms that might have swung the referendum. Like a 2-track membership where some counties move at a slower pace. Something that was suggested to Cameron who immediately rejected it as the UK had to be at the centre.

The Tories doing "Fuck business" again - any problems will be all the fault of those silly businesses ....

Peter Foster@pmdfoster

If you watch @michaelgove from 12.15 or so, you can see the government's blame game here.

If there are queues at Dover in a 'no deal' it will be because of business's failure to ensure paperwork is in order.

It will NOT be because... 1/

• a large proportion of freight forwarders are smallish companies that don't have the bandwidth and cash to do the declarations

• OR because the UK will be short of 10,000-20,000 customs clearing agents that know how to do this sh*t /2

• Or because the 245,000 businesses who trade ONLY with the EU have absolutely no experience of clearing international borders.

• Or because the government has provided risible levels of information, training and investment to now to assist them /3

• OR because, per a senior business leader of my acquaintance, it takes business a year to hear about new stuff, five years to adapt and ten to really get used to things.

But as we know anything is possible by Oct 31 with enough gumption. I'm thinking of a moonshot /4

In any event, it will definitely NOT be because the government has forced a 'no deal' #Brexit for its own political ends - and in defiance of business interests and pleading. /5

It's one thing to say 'things will be bumpy' in a 'no deal' #Brexit - but worth it in the end.

Another to say it will be bumpy, and if businesses catch a few flat tyres on the road to the sunny uplands, well, that's on them.

Good weekend all /6 ENDS

I find myself in agreement with you again Violet Paris. I personally would rather we were not in a position where we are leaving the EU but much as I hate to say it I also think we have to Leave. Majority Leave voting communities are often communities that have felt ignored by politicians and London for decades now.

Yes, but leaving - as we know - won't address the slightest iota of that. All that will happen is that Remainers will get pelted with wasps nests for messing up what should have been a Beautiful Brexit.

When the collective hive mind of a society can attack a paediatricians house because it "sounds like paedo" then you're really not going to lose much by going low when it comes to judging outcomes in England.

I can't believe there are people posting that Corbyn is afraid of an election. Do they not follow what is happening?

In the main, no.