Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: "He's in trouble". No he's not.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 00:48

All day I've seen nothing but comments and tweets about he Johnson is in trouble and he's losing it.

They are wrong. He's far from done.

Take a step through the Looking Glass and the world looks different.

Those tweeting and reporting all care about events and are following closely. They are unrepresentative of the population as a whole who don't give two shiny shits.

And so we have the Trump dynamic.

The Liberal elite of broadcasters and journalists who are only seeing through the lens of their own judgement, not from the repackaged marketing.

Instead they are unwittingly publishing the images and slogans in the format Johnson wants and enter the minds of the public as planned.

The media are out of step with perceptions. And that's worrying. They don't see what's coming.

Johnson will have an election at some point. With the Tory party cleansed of moderates it is the Brexit Party one way or another, whether it be by takeover or coalition. And its riding high in the polling.

Even though even his brother has abandoned him, the future looks positive for Johnson as his opponents have a complete lack of self awareness and no understanding of the opposition they are taking on; they are campaigning in a way that plays into the hands of Johnson.

Despite his lack of majority and apparently absence of plan or speech notes, the biggest mistake you can make now is to write off Johnson.

You do so at your own peril.

Pay close attention to how authoritarians work and what's already happened in the US. We are on course to repeat it.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
24
DarkAtEndOfUK · 06/09/2019 17:06

Anyone seen this? I just picked it up from another thread, the 'sensible leaver' one.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/06/backstop-boris-johnson-brexit-deal-changes-defence-workers-rights

If this is correct the man's gone stark raving mad. Unless he never seriously wanted a deal in the first place. Ireland to align with UK over EU?? What absolute madness is this?

DadDadDad · 06/09/2019 17:09

@DGRosetti - interesting idea (I'm not sure I totally buy it, but I still haven't worked out if Boris really is being guided by a master strategist who has thought of all these things and the shambolic front is just to lure his opponents, or whether he genuinely thought some charm and some clever wheezes were going to work).

I've just googled "Boris bus" and the first hit references his time as mayor and London buses. Then we get his "weird" model-bus hobby, then references to your theory that his hobby was intended to game internet searches. If he did invent it for that reason, it seems a lot of effort for not much gain.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 17:09

Nick Boles MP
@NickBoles
·
5h
I’m no pollster but I have a strong hunch that voters are completely unimpressed by Johnson calling Corbyn chicken for refusing a snap election. If they notice it all, I suspect all they see is a PM huffing and puffing and failing to blow the house down.

LonelyTiredandLow · 06/09/2019 17:10

DGR I was wondering how legal it would be for A50 if a law had been broken to get No Deal? If we ever had another election without BoZo winning, could it be reversed on that technicality if requested, rather than having to re-negotiate trade? I'm thinking post 2022 (if we get one and not one on 1st Nov then radio silence on democratic elections).

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 17:11

perking He said we would Brexit on 31 October, whatever happens

He said only a 1 in 1 million chance of No Deal, but polls show most people expect ND

Don't expect a lot of Leavers to suddenly switch to Revoke

It is quite likely that the switch could be in the other direction,
because many Remainers are also not well-informed and expect ND would at least make the chaos stop.

I would really be worried about a PV:
A 60% Leave win would scupper any chance of Rejoin for a generation

DGRossetti · 06/09/2019 17:11

I've just googled "Boris bus" and the first hit references his time as mayor and London buses.

Because Google is a dynamic entity ... it would have been completely different a month ago.

Oakenbeach · 06/09/2019 17:11

The EU is standing well clear of this clusterfuck with very good reason. The minute they do anything at this point it will be twisted.

And the EU are right to do this.... I just hope they don’t extend and force Parliament to make up its mind one way or the other. If they want to avoid a no-deal, it’s probably their best chance.

Oakenbeach · 06/09/2019 17:12

As in, the EU are right not to say anything at the moment.... come the summit in October, it will be different.

DGRossetti · 06/09/2019 17:13

Meanwhile, on Facebook, below a story about Brexit, I have a post from Oxfam offering to write my will. (One for PE's "Malgorithms" Grin)

LonelyTiredandLow · 06/09/2019 17:13

Apileof that is what I was thinking yesterday - he really wants WA and needs a scapegoat for it. I think it depends who has the reigns here and how long they stay (if Cummings has his way I actually think he will go WA and I personally think BoZo wants No Deal to keep his support and power). I could be wrong and it might be the other way around!

JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 17:15

twitter.com/i/status/1170006296155873281

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 17:18

lonely We can't reverse Brexit after the fact, no matter what laws BJ or Leave broke

No Deal is the default result of A50, which is part of an international treaty

If a country bungles its negotiations, or breaks its own laws, that doesn't change the legal fact of Brexit

After Brexit, we legally can't have transition period with all EU benefits etc,
because any deal signed after Brexit must treat the UK from the start as a 3rd country
3rd countries can't have the EU benefits without actually joining, or being in accession to join

LonelyTiredandLow · 06/09/2019 17:19

Yes BCF I thought as much. Not to mention how we would be able to unpick the US trade and standards drop to go back to EU level without another hefty cost beforehand.

Havanananana · 06/09/2019 17:20

The EU is standing well clear of this clusterfuck with very good reason. The minute they do anything at this point it will be twisted.

Finland currently holds the Presidency of the Council of the EU. In Helsinki this morning, Antti Rinne, the Finnish PM said ' The situation in the United Kingdom at present is a total mess. We don't know what is going on. It seems perfectly obvious that we will not be able to reach an agreement on a Brexit deal.'

Rinne repeated at a press conference in Helsinki today that the [Withdrawal Agreement] cannot be renegotiated. 'We are not going to reopen negotiations on the agreement that the Britain and the EU have already agreed,' said Rinne.

And according to the Independent Macron is likely to veto an extension (and I doubt he is the only one)
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-delay-extension-france-macron-veto-article-50-boris-johnson-a9094221.html

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 17:22

BJ might be (secretly) quite happy for Parliament to save him from a No Deal economic crash, by passing the WA

That's another reason I don't think he'd break the WA
e.g. "Not my fault. They did it"

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 17:23

However, the ERG & some Tory donors desperately want No Deal, to make their billions

bellinisurge · 06/09/2019 17:23

We all know who to blame if we crash out. Every single No Dealer.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 17:24

and also to any MPs who could have stopped No Deal, but would not compromise on their desired outcome

DeRigueurMortis · 06/09/2019 17:25

Just a further comment on the mindset of the Brexiteers and optics.

As Red has expressed so eloquently already, it's dangerous to assume they see what we see.

Those that I know do not "see" BJ failing, his buffoonery, his lies etc.

It's gone beyond that for them. They don't even care if the Leave campaign lied. They don't care if BJ lies now.

They're angry. Simple as that. Their will has blocked by an "undemocratic" Parliament.

It's not really even about Brexit anymore. It's about the fact their vote didn't matter.

Arguing about whether Brexit is a good/bad thing doesn't even resonate. It's all about a sense of injustice that they are being ignored (which ironically was a key reason in some areas why people voted Brexit in the first place).

The people vs Parliament plays well to them and they see BJ "battling" on their behalf and if he can't deliver then they'll place their bets with Farage.

DGRossetti · 06/09/2019 17:25

Not to mention how we would be able to unpick the US trade and standards drop to go back to EU level without another hefty cost beforehand.

That assumes we just rock up at US Towers, and sign a trade deal. Which Congress has made crystal clear is not going to happen if the GFA is under threat. Leaving the UK to sail the seven seas like a latter day Flying Dutchman, forever in search of a trade deal.

With the focus on Trump in the US and Boris in the UK, we are recreating the age of Kings. Once again, parallels to the fall of the Roman Republic are too numerous to enumerate. With Boris eyeing a Rubicon of the "surrender bill" and contemplating whether to cross it. Worryingly an image he might have in his own head as I speak.

LonelyTiredandLow · 06/09/2019 17:27

BCF see I wouldn't put it past Cummings to think he could game the gamer here - he might want the opposite to what BoZo himself thinks he is getting and back him into a corner? We know Cummings isn't a Tory so what we don't know is what his agenda is. He didn't seem to happy with the people on the Leave campaign, including BoZo, and their attitudes.

0lga · 06/09/2019 17:27

The Benn bill has just been passed, without amendment, by the House of Lords.

howabout · 06/09/2019 17:27

As in, the EU are right not to say anything at the moment.... come the summit in October, it will be different.

Agreed. However it will not be the EU dictating at the summit. It will be the EU27 reaching a unified position as Nation State Members of the EU. Doubly the case since Tusk gets replaced in November.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 17:28

Treasury Committee
@CommonsTreasury
·
2h
Neither the Chancellor nor any other Treasury Minister are able to attend an evidence session with the Treasury Committee on #SpendingReview2019.

Interim Chair
@JohnMannMP
has called this an "unacceptable precedent".

LonelyTiredandLow · 06/09/2019 17:28

DGR but in reality it is in US's interests to catch up soon after Brexit, in case we do try to rejoin when the crisis hits. Far less of a 'crisis' if UK 'saves' us and then we align to them than if we keep regs the same as EU and leave that door open?

Swipe left for the next trending thread