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Brexit

Westminstenders: "He's in trouble". No he's not.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 00:48

All day I've seen nothing but comments and tweets about he Johnson is in trouble and he's losing it.

They are wrong. He's far from done.

Take a step through the Looking Glass and the world looks different.

Those tweeting and reporting all care about events and are following closely. They are unrepresentative of the population as a whole who don't give two shiny shits.

And so we have the Trump dynamic.

The Liberal elite of broadcasters and journalists who are only seeing through the lens of their own judgement, not from the repackaged marketing.

Instead they are unwittingly publishing the images and slogans in the format Johnson wants and enter the minds of the public as planned.

The media are out of step with perceptions. And that's worrying. They don't see what's coming.

Johnson will have an election at some point. With the Tory party cleansed of moderates it is the Brexit Party one way or another, whether it be by takeover or coalition. And its riding high in the polling.

Even though even his brother has abandoned him, the future looks positive for Johnson as his opponents have a complete lack of self awareness and no understanding of the opposition they are taking on; they are campaigning in a way that plays into the hands of Johnson.

Despite his lack of majority and apparently absence of plan or speech notes, the biggest mistake you can make now is to write off Johnson.

You do so at your own peril.

Pay close attention to how authoritarians work and what's already happened in the US. We are on course to repeat it.

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BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 13:20

@red Is it a serious possibility that BJ could resign, knowing HMQ would ask Corbyn to be PM ?

Or haven't they realised this, or think they can get around it ?

Is it passing the unexploded bomb to the Opposition because the govt can't think of a way out ?

Unescorted · 06/09/2019 13:22

Is there a counter to keep a tally of how many conservative MPs are resigning at the next election / had the whip removed / crossed the house? We have had 2 announcements this morning - Michael Fallon & Claire Parry. I am losing count of where we are up to.

Violetparis · 06/09/2019 13:23

I was watching Politics Live earlier and Jo Coburn said the Lib Dem Brexit strategy was to have another referendum. They were questioning what their Leave option would be, does anyone one know if it would be no deal ?

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 13:23

sieve It takes 434 to pass a VoNC
The Opposition - or even just some of it - only needs to abstain

Also, would many Tories really troop into a lobby to vote No Confidence in their own govt and PM ?

There are things that can be explained away to Brexit supporters and things that would be very difficult
That is one of the latter

dontcallmelen · 06/09/2019 13:23

My was denied renewal of the mobility award when moving from DLA to PiP, she had flitflops on her feet in December as she couldn’t get shoes on due to the inflammation of her joints, I practically carried her into the assessment because she was so ill, in the report they said she walked unaided was appropriately dressed for the weather no sign of pain & looked very well.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 13:25

dontcallmelen Flowers

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 13:25

iirc, Tories had 298 MPs after the 21 were expelled
If so, that would be 296 MPs now

Have I missed any resignations ?

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 13:26

Hang on, those last 2 are just not standing at the next GE

I think the total remains Tory 298 MPs

JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 13:27

The Opposition - or even just some of it - only needs to abstain

Labour has to abstain or at least the front bench the optics otherwise are awful

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 13:30

dontcallmelen 💐
More evil bastards at work

Those people who actually work as assessors and do this kind of thing:
we shouldn't be surprised - there was no shortage of people joining in other pogroms

Once you make certain groups the "other", a surprising number of people will join in vicious attacks on them

dontcallmelen · 06/09/2019 13:32

Just thank you & 💐for you as well & everyone else who have had to endure such shameful treatment.

ListeningQuietly · 06/09/2019 13:32

Sajid is living in a whole orchard of magic money trees

Labour at least intend to increase tax revenue to pay for some of their plans.
The Tories are just borrowing from our grandchildren.

Icantreachthepretzels · 06/09/2019 13:32

Who said it, @Icantreachthepretzels? Joyce was dead by the time Buffy and Spike first hopped into bed. If it was Giles, that doesn’t really help your case!

Dawn said it to Tara - they'd fallen asleep on the sofa and woke up in the morning to find no one had come home. Joyce had always used to warn her about the ditches - ditches were bad.

Unescorted · 06/09/2019 13:33

don't that is awful.

By not standing does that not signal that they are leaving the party, but without triggering a People Vs Parliament framed by election?After the Purge backlash it wouldn't play well to have the whip withdrawn from those who are standing down - although they could resign the whip / cross the floor..... maybe that will be Monday's headlines.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 13:33

The list of Labours manifesto plans

pbs.twimg.com/media/EDx_qY2WsAIU8ds?format=jpg&name=small

ListeningQuietly · 06/09/2019 13:34

The vast VAST bulk of the population are sick to the back teeth with Brexit
and will vote for whoever promises to Get Brexit over and done with
they may well regret that decision later (luckily General elections happen every few years)
but whatever Brexit direction is taken as a result of boredom
WILL be final.

TheElementsSong · 06/09/2019 13:35

Just and dont Flowers

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 13:41

Is it passing the unexploded bomb to the Opposition because the govt can't think of a way out ?

I've been pondering the possibility of this, and think it realistic.

Especially if he refuses to stand down as Tory leader so he can fight another GE.

The gamble is then that the rainbow coalition is going to struggle to stay together beyond a couple of months as beyond Brexit what are their common goals or political purpose?

What incentive, for example, is there for the SNP to be part of a coalition with Labour?

Does it pose an extensional threat to the LDs to go into a longer coalition with Labour?

On the flip of that the Cons then become the opposition to an 'anti democratic liberal elite' against the people.

Johnson dodges the bullet of responsibility and Labour and Co get the poison chalice they've not wanted all along and it explodes in their face.

The danger for Johnson is that he looks like he has run away from the responsibility of it - but I think that's easily spun with how he was forced to resign not that he chose to.

I think that then becomes a very difficult election for the opposition to win but it could prevent no deal but land us with a Johnson government after the fact.

It would leave us within the hated backstop but its one that the nasty EU and opposition trapped us with. Whilst there might be noises about getting rid of it, I also think there might be a lot of people who just go quiet about it too as there isn't an immediate solution and it merely becomes something we have to achieve over time against 'hostile forces' in a half arsed way.

It might neutralise a lot of bubbling anger in the medium term but in the short term there would be a lot of whipped up outrage from the right.

Since Brexit isn't going away for a long time it still provides opportunity for the right to get what they want, albeit without being seen to agree to the WA...

Of course this also depends on how far the opposition go. Would they go for full on remain? Some might want to and I think that might be an issue and threat. Is there enough political will from the LDs and SNP to go for soft Brexit in order to prevent No Deal or would there be too much temptation to 'go for the win'.

We've yet to fully explore that question, and I'm not convinced they would just be satisfied with blocking no deal.

It's an interesting one, and certainly one that I think really could happen and is on my radar.

The fact there was a rising refusal to rule out resignation followed by a flat refusal to, I'm wondering...

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JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 13:41

but whatever Brexit direction is taken as a result of boredom
WILL be final.

Its why I think going forward and if any political campaigner ask my opinion and everytime Im asked about policy because I'm a Labour member I want civics on the curriculum from early years so that it becomes part of your contract with the country, I'd ask all of you to do the same so at least future generations no matter their economic background can hold governments to account

Icantreachthepretzels · 06/09/2019 13:44

most people will still just see the PM stood in front of a load of police officers

I found that picture utterly chilling. But what I found most chilling was the blank, angry, unsmiling faces of the police ... but that's actually a good thing. The police were not happy to be there. He doesn't actually have their backing, they just happened to be stood behind him.

I found the comparable Trump picture far less chilling because the police? soldiers? behind him were all smiling and laughing and looking happy. But that's a bad thing! He has the support of this armed group of people with authority.

It's strange - for me the Boris picture looked much more like a picture of a dictator in a totalitarian regime, because the uniformed group looked much more friendly and human in the Trump picture. But the reality is actually flipped. I wonder if it worked that way for anyone else.

TheElementsSong · 06/09/2019 13:44

I saw this on Twitter, seems a bit Shock but then again we on this thread have agreed that the optics of this week's events, to the general population, actually favour Bozo.

twitter.com/J_amesp/status/1169906868686188544

"Updated with all the latest national polls, if the Brexit Party and Conservatives enter a functional pact arrangement versus Remain Unity candidates the Leave side will be looking at a potential 489 seats in Parliament versus 143 to Remain’s coalition with Labour nowhere."

"However, if no pact or unity arrangements are made, Parliament would potentially take this form:

Con: 382
Lab: 148
SNP: 52
LD: 27
GRN: 13
PC: 10

Brexit Party take a healthy portion of the vote but gain no seats on current polling, impacting both Tories and Labour."

twitter.com/J_amesp/status/1169909400481366018

"Yes:

Leave 60.4%
Remain 39.6%

With a potential swing to

Leave 58.4%
Remain 41.6%"

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 13:44

Another PV is a stupid tactical decision IMHO. Really fucking stupid.

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RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 13:46

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
Possibly the boldest election advert in history just released by CCHQ

Westminstenders: "He's in trouble". No he's not.
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LunarSea · 06/09/2019 13:46

On the other the sun headline yesterday was ‘floppy Johnson can’t get an election” which makes me think that the are hedging their bets a little on this one.

Only the Scottish edition of the Sun though, the English version was rather different

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 13:48

See advert, then see my point about a PV.

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