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Brexit

Westminstenders: "He's in trouble". No he's not.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 00:48

All day I've seen nothing but comments and tweets about he Johnson is in trouble and he's losing it.

They are wrong. He's far from done.

Take a step through the Looking Glass and the world looks different.

Those tweeting and reporting all care about events and are following closely. They are unrepresentative of the population as a whole who don't give two shiny shits.

And so we have the Trump dynamic.

The Liberal elite of broadcasters and journalists who are only seeing through the lens of their own judgement, not from the repackaged marketing.

Instead they are unwittingly publishing the images and slogans in the format Johnson wants and enter the minds of the public as planned.

The media are out of step with perceptions. And that's worrying. They don't see what's coming.

Johnson will have an election at some point. With the Tory party cleansed of moderates it is the Brexit Party one way or another, whether it be by takeover or coalition. And its riding high in the polling.

Even though even his brother has abandoned him, the future looks positive for Johnson as his opponents have a complete lack of self awareness and no understanding of the opposition they are taking on; they are campaigning in a way that plays into the hands of Johnson.

Despite his lack of majority and apparently absence of plan or speech notes, the biggest mistake you can make now is to write off Johnson.

You do so at your own peril.

Pay close attention to how authoritarians work and what's already happened in the US. We are on course to repeat it.

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RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 12:55

Re the ‘dead in a ditch’ stuff - do people think it really was scripted?

It was scripted.

He had already done 'do or die'.

It's a theme.

Note the oppose point from people like Dr Nicholls saying people will die as a result of Brexit.

It's a way of appropriating the language.

If Johnson resigns as PM, given he now has no parliamentary majority, then the Queen invites Parliament to see if it has someone else who can command the support of the house (and pass a Queens Speech) before a GE would be called.

There could a gamble on this too though.

  1. Johnson could gamble the opposition is too disunited to manage this.
  2. How quickly could they do this - I saw something the other day that after a GE the quickest time before Parliament could reconvene is about 2 weeks. In an emergency and without a GE I'm guess this could be quicker.

But what if he resigned on 30th October?

Not got an answer to that, and yes it would be an issue.

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FoldyRoll · 06/09/2019 12:57

Die in a ditch is interesting phrasing. It is in common usage but less so than 'over my dead body'. It's like the difference between childish (bad) and childlike (good). Over my dead body is firm, principled, heroic. Dead in a ditch is not. It alludes to violence and falling victim to events beyond your control.
On that basis, it's hard to say if it's deliberate (a dog whistle to incite violence) or accidental; a psychological 'tell' that betrays Johnson's current state of mind.

DGRossetti · 06/09/2019 12:57

If Johnson resigns as PM, given he now has no parliamentary majority, then the Queen invites Parliament to see if it has someone else who can command the support of the house (and pass a Queens Speech) before a GE would be called.

What happens if he resigns during prorogation ? Or on it's last day ?

DGRossetti · 06/09/2019 12:57

Although for all the talk of resigning, I really can't see Boris being the George Lazenby PM ....

JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 12:58

a psychological 'tell' that betrays Johnson's current state of mind.

Normally I'd agree but the optics of this are being controlled tightly and the state broadcaster is enabling this to whatever end

Icantreachthepretzels · 06/09/2019 13:00

"Dead in a ditch" is not an English expression I've ever come across

"Dead in a ditch" is the kind of phrase your mother yells at you when you're a teenager who has just wandered in from a night out at 5 in the morning to find her in the kitchen, in her dressing gown chewing her nails and this close to ringing the police. I didn't know what had happened to you! I didn't know if you're were safe! I thought you were dead in a ditch somewhere

I would say that is a very common usage of the phrase. The way Boris has used it is not common. Though if other people claim not to know it perhaps it is regional ... I am in the region Boris was in yesterday. Maybe he was trying to use a phrase but, not being local, didn't know how to use it. He used it in the same way as 'I'd rather be dead than ...' which is again a common phrase but means something different to 'dead in ditch'. He's conflated the two.

I don't think it's a local thing though - there's definitely a reference to Buffy being dead in a ditch when she doesn't come home one night (she was shagging Spike - would you go home?) and southern California is not local to Wakefield.

Bearbehind · 06/09/2019 13:00

when being assessed for my PIP by Capita I was asked why hadnt I killed myself yet? 1 of those high moments you remember

just that is horrific but I still don’t get why it makes everything the stories say bad and everything Labour day good. Particularly the latter

Sadly nowadays (perhaps it always was) most people don’t really have a political home, they just have to chose the least worst option

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 13:01

Poster and I must stop meeting like this Grin

DGRossetti · 06/09/2019 13:03

Before guessing what Johnson might do, it would be helpful to know what he actually wants. On a foursquare, I can't help but feel the best outcome would be the UK not leaving the EU and Boris being a hero ... you have:

Leave/Villain
Stay/Villain
Leave/Hero
Stay/Hero

Yes lots of moving parts, but Boris is only thinking of Boris moving parts (which we knew already_ ...

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 13:04

red Has raised the alarming prospect of his resigning on say 30 October

This is one example why any last ditch action to stop NO Deal, e.g. voting for the WA, cannot be left to the final day or two

There are too many ways of blocking any move for a few days, e.g. also HoL / HoL filibuster, to run down the final time to No Deal

QueenOfThorns · 06/09/2019 13:05

@Icantreachthepretzels no I would most definitely NOT go home Grin

lonelyplanetmum · 06/09/2019 13:05

How have we gone from easiest trade deal in human history to death in a ditch?

At least there was a sliver of prescient honesty when the future PM said we'd make a Titanic success of it.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 06/09/2019 13:06

1 of my favorite moments Bear is when being assessed for my PIP by Capita I was asked why hadnt I killed myself yet? 1 of those high moments you remember
That's just horrendously awful just
I thought my mother's report was bad when they repetitively mentioned she was dressed well and was clean. The implication being that disabled people can't care about their hygiene or appearance. Not to mention she had rails installed in her shower to enable her to do these things.
But that is far far beyond what my mother had.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 13:06

"it would be helpful to know what he actually want"

Stay PM
whether that is as fluffy (kind) BJ bunging billions to the NHS,
or authoritarian (strong) BJ shutting down Parliament and imposing martial law

JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 13:07

I still don’t get why it makes everything the stories say bad and everything Labour day good

Trust me Im equally as critical of Labour when their optics are bad like how long its taken Corbyn to get where we are now months and months after conference

The narrative that Osbourne set up with the Striver or Scrounger has caused people to lose their life Bear I cant stress this enough people have died because of being disabled not because of their disability, and I'm waiting for some evidence, any evidence that there is a shred of humanity left in One Nation Tories let alone these Right Wing Fascist Tories, thats no slight on you there Bear

PerkingFaintly · 06/09/2019 13:07

Johnson's just demonstrated he can't even get a good deal on a box of fish.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49599334
The prime minister started his visit to Scotland at Peterhead Fish Market and joined in with a bidding war over a box of cod - which he ended up buying for £185.
Asked whether Mr Johnson had paid a good price, fish market chief executive Simon Brebner said: "If you're selling, it's a great price. If you're buying, maybe it's a little high."

QueenOfThorns · 06/09/2019 13:09

Who said it, @Icantreachthepretzels? Joyce was dead by the time Buffy and Spike first hopped into bed. If it was Giles, that doesn’t really help your case!

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 13:10

"when being assessed for my PIP by Capita I was asked why hadnt I killed myself yet?"

Evil fucking bastards Angry

Don't let them beat you, poster

JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 13:12

Aww thank you everyone wasnt meant to me-rail there Blush

Basilpots · 06/09/2019 13:14

JustFlowers

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 13:14

Interesting snippet from the EU:

The current Agriculture Commissioner Phil Hogan looks set to be nominated in the coming days to take over the powerful role of EU Trade Commissioner.

He is from Ireland and would be in charge of any Post-Brexit trade negotiations with the UK Hmm < oops >
Sabine Weyand, formerly Barnier's #2, would be his chief civil servant

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/phil-hogan-looks-set-to-be-nominated-for-eu-trade-commissioner-948331.html

Chairman of the European Parliament's trade committee Bernd Lange yesterday said there was an “80% chance” Hogan would be nominated for the post.

RHTawneyonabus · 06/09/2019 13:17

Tricky isn’t it? On one had As Jack Blanchard tweeted
“Worth remembering that while SW1 laughs at how weird / terrible that press conference was, most people will still just see the PM stood in front of a load of police officers saying he'd rather "die in a ditch" than delay Brexit”

On the other the sun headline yesterday was ‘floppy Johnson can’t get an election” which makes me think that the are hedging their bets a little on this one.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2019 13:17

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

It is remarkable that the chances of a Johnson resignation are climbing.

If it happened one of the underappreciated consequences of the mass whip removal is that the Tory\DUP bloc is now smaller than anti-no deal Lab led bloc.

So the Queen couldn’t call for a Tory.

usuallydormant · 06/09/2019 13:17

He's doing a Trump. We're so distracted by his stupid remarks (just watched a video where he claims that the UK could sell beef to the US but not accept their hormone beef and waffled about the deal he is going to get with the EU over dinner in October), that other stuff is slipping though unnoticed.

The new proposals on trade and regulation from Johnson’s government represent not a marginal shift in British thinking, but a radical philosophical departure, an entirely new approach to developing the post-Brexit relationship, and one grounded in a radical wing trading philosophy.

www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/boris-johnson-seeks-to-ditch-uk-pledges-to-eu-on-future-relations-1.4009202

Wenttoseainasieve · 06/09/2019 13:19

Was just thinking about how trippy it would be if Johnson called a VONC to force an election and then Labour and co voted that they DID have confidence in him ... is that possible?!