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Brexit

Westminstenders: "He's in trouble". No he's not.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 00:48

All day I've seen nothing but comments and tweets about he Johnson is in trouble and he's losing it.

They are wrong. He's far from done.

Take a step through the Looking Glass and the world looks different.

Those tweeting and reporting all care about events and are following closely. They are unrepresentative of the population as a whole who don't give two shiny shits.

And so we have the Trump dynamic.

The Liberal elite of broadcasters and journalists who are only seeing through the lens of their own judgement, not from the repackaged marketing.

Instead they are unwittingly publishing the images and slogans in the format Johnson wants and enter the minds of the public as planned.

The media are out of step with perceptions. And that's worrying. They don't see what's coming.

Johnson will have an election at some point. With the Tory party cleansed of moderates it is the Brexit Party one way or another, whether it be by takeover or coalition. And its riding high in the polling.

Even though even his brother has abandoned him, the future looks positive for Johnson as his opponents have a complete lack of self awareness and no understanding of the opposition they are taking on; they are campaigning in a way that plays into the hands of Johnson.

Despite his lack of majority and apparently absence of plan or speech notes, the biggest mistake you can make now is to write off Johnson.

You do so at your own peril.

Pay close attention to how authoritarians work and what's already happened in the US. We are on course to repeat it.

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Bearbehind · 06/09/2019 11:20

Sorry, I know this is a bit of a derail

spiderhands in the example of the PP who earns 6 figures and pays £2k childcare - the only person who wins if the government fund her childcare is her

The taxed income revenue she generates already exists

I appreciate it might encourage some more people to work, hence the need for means testing. but at the top end it’s directly taking from the poor and giving to the rich

Peregrina · 06/09/2019 11:21

I guess it’s the natural outcome of believing in Labour’s magic money tree

Ahem, didn't you hear Javid the other day? He's found a few magic money trees. Or so he said, but we might find out that they are rotten with hollow trucks or being subjected to ash die back or elm disease.

Spiderhands · 06/09/2019 11:23

Bearbehind you keep talking about 'the rich'.

Higher rate tax payers are not all rich in the sense described earlier (private schools, trust funds etc...), I imagine it's only a very small percentage who have this sort of lifestyle.

I can afford to pay my nursery fees, but I have to budget carefully to do so. Can you not see that a political party who tells me that I'm rich and I should pay more tax is less likely to get my vote if I am worried about my own household budget, even though in theory I agree with the redistribution of wealth?

Political ideals about spending money where it's most needed are great but you need to get elected in order to do so, which requires finding a middle ground on these issues and helping me with the short term pain on my childcare costs is a good way to do it!

Peregrina · 06/09/2019 11:25

I appreciate it might encourage some more people to work, hence the need for means testing. but at the top end it’s directly taking from the poor and giving to the rich

Or reintroduce sensible tax bands, so that means testing isn't necessary but those wealthy enough do pay for it indirectly. And stop presenting taxes as a burden, but as a social obligation. Except of course, successive Governments are quite happy to waste our taxes on vanity projects or 'Defence' projects which are glorified willy waving, and those do annoy me.

Bearbehind · 06/09/2019 11:27

True, peregrina!

I guess my point is though, yes it would be great if everything could be funded as we’d like it but it can’t so every government has to prioritise

I just find it unbelievable that someone (just) who hates the Tories and anyone who’s ever voted for them so much because of the hardship they perceive them to have caused, can be quite happy literally lining the pockets of the rich as in the example I gave above, which has to come from money which could have gone to more deserving causes

DGRossetti · 06/09/2019 11:27

As someone once wrote ...

Pity the poor politician,
sowing a seed they'll wait long to see
Tilling the minds of their fellow friend.
For it's in the hearts of such men
All addled with greed and glory and gain,
that the real crop to be reaped will be sown again.

HesterThrale · 06/09/2019 11:29

This is troubling me now! I think more women voted to remain... A quick search around:

A very small majority of women voted to remain, while men voted to leave. The biggest gender differences were among the AB social class and among those aged 35-54, among both of whom women were eleven points more likely to vote to remain than men.

www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

Leave/Remain was 55/45 for men, and 51/49 for women, overall.

www.statista.com/statistics/567922/brexit-votes-by-gender/

Bearbehind · 06/09/2019 11:29

Or reintroduce sensible tax bands, so that means testing isn't necessary but those wealthy enough do pay for it indirectly.

A very sensible suggestion.

As spider said, not all high rate tax payers are ‘rich’ but there’s a huge variation before you get to the top rate currently

Spiderhands · 06/09/2019 11:29

spiderhandsin the example of the PP who earns 6 figures and pays £2k childcare - the only person who wins if the government fund her childcare is her

Bear I'll stop after this as this is interesting, but derailing!

The PP with the childcare costs is me. Yes I benefit short term. But as a result I'm more likely to vote labour and accept paying higher taxes (potentially for much longer than I'm getting childcare help for).

The bigger long term picture is labour are more electable and get more tax revenue as I will still happily pay my higher tax when I no longer need the childcare.

Obviously I'm one voter so whether this is a sensible policy depends on a lot more than me, but that's the logic I see behind it.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 11:31

I just find it unbelievable that someone (just) who hates the Tories and anyone who’s ever voted for them so much because of the hardship they perceive them to have caused

Um fucking what now?

People have died Bear due to austerity and the punish the poor and vulnerable mentality of you and your ilk, austerity was a choice inflicted on the people of the this country so that the wealthy and corporations could keep more of their wealth, same with zero hour contracts they benefit the bosses not the workers, fuck workers rights, right Bear? Had austerity not been enacted and instead the bankers and their greed had been punished their would be NO BREXIT

HesterThrale · 06/09/2019 11:31

Sorry got that wrong!

Should have written:

Leave/Remain was 55/45 for men, and 49/51 for women, overall.

NoCryingInEngineering · 06/09/2019 11:32

I guess we are relatively unusual in that there is little difference in income between me and DH, so there is less (basic spreadsheet logic) pressure on one of us to stay home and do FT childcare while the other does the breadwinner role. That was definitely a factor in being able to do shared parental leave as well.

The 30hrs "free" childcare has all sorts of logic holes in it that I am not a fan of, but a lot of these are because no one seems to be very clear on what it is actually for or who it's intended to support. School preparedness in harder to reach families? Or parents (mothers?) back into PT work? Or middle income families struggling with high childcare costs?

The thing that makes me think it's a nonsense policy was that we were able to claim it for DC1 while on parental leave with DC2. Admittedly it was great for him to continue at nursery instead of hanging around bored at home restricted by the need to do baby-compatible things, but it probably wasn't the best use of the policy...

Bearbehind · 06/09/2019 11:33

Lol! We could go on forever couldn’t we spider

I guess the way I see it is that you’d vote Labour while you wanted childcare then rethink when it was no longer a priority

I generally think these things should be more sustainable and less policemen but I guess that’s simply unrealistic

DarkAtEndOfUK · 06/09/2019 11:35

Hester, yes those are the stats I've seen.

Of course Parliament works primarily on geographic factors, doesn't it, not just on social demographics. That's why he wants the General Election rather than a referendum - vote percentages and counts do not match parliamentary representation in the UK, and for all that the Referendum was close, under FPTP rules by constituency it would have been a landslide for leave.

I expect Labour has this information direct as well as Tony Blair's vaguer warnings. The battles that have decided England's future have often been in the Midlands.

Peregrina · 06/09/2019 11:35

I guess my point is though, yes it would be great if everything could be funded as we’d like it but it can’t so every government has to prioritise

So how many people manage to vote for parties which prioritise tax cuts for the really rich, to their own detriment? I am talking here of people like Boris Johnson who got paid silly sums of money for writing stupid articles in the Telegraph - those are the really rich.

QueenOfThorns · 06/09/2019 11:36

Finally caught up! I am one of those who would probably be hit financially if Labour were in power, but would be delighted to be living in a fairer society. Them’s the principles on which I was brought up, and I stick by them!

Regarding polls and GE voting, I think anything that happened in the local/EP elections should be ignored. I’m sure I’m not the only one who voted in protest at Labour’s fence-sitting. But in a GE, I will vote tactically AGAINST the Tories and their hard right friends. In my case, it means voting for my sitting Labour MP. I wonder how many other people will be voting against something, rather than for something else?

To me, ‘dead in a ditch’ is definitely where your parents assume you are if you’re late home, but I’m fascinated by Louise’s ‘dead in the last ditch’. That has a totally different meaning to being a helpless victim, chucked at the side of the road.

Peregrina · 06/09/2019 11:40

I have just read that Chuka Ummuna is going to stand in the Cities of London and Westminster at the next election, which is Mark Field's seat. Mark Field has a majority of just over 3,000 and it was a Remain constituency so it could be ripe for a LibDem win. Streatham already has a LibDem candidate in place.

Bearbehind · 06/09/2019 11:42

I don’t think there’s even that much difference between about and Tory policies anymore

Basically both come up with unsustainable ‘crowd pleasers’ that never actually happen in practice

Both blame the other for previous governments which caused all the problems

And the endless cycle continues

Basilpots · 06/09/2019 11:46

@Peregrina Mark Field he was the one that grabbed the female protesters by the throat wasn’t he ?

JustAnotherPoster00 · 06/09/2019 11:46

Alex Wickham
@alexwickham
· 12m
West Yorkshire police chief "disappointed" to see his officers used as backdrop for PM's speech

— it was the police's understanding they would only be used to promote recruitment
— "we had no prior knowledge" PM speech "would be broadened to other issues until it was delivered" twitter.com/WestYorksPolice/status/1169919596150870018

Spiderhands · 06/09/2019 11:47

Yes, its pretty depressing. It's hard to know what to do. Sit and watch? Are people writing to their MPs?

For me, dead in a ditch from Boris immediately made me think of a tramp. Probably not the image he was trying to convey.

DGRossetti · 06/09/2019 11:49

So will Boris speechs be pre-cleared now ? And if he goes off-script ?

DGRossetti · 06/09/2019 11:50

Sounds like Robert Mugabe is dead in a ditch now ?

AnxietyDream · 06/09/2019 11:52

Re: dead in a ditch is an expression I've heard. Not super common, but not coined by bj-c.

Usually in the form 'if you don't hear from me by Tuesday it's time to start checking I'm not dead in a ditch somewhere...'

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2019 11:56

I’m saying the rich should not get free childcare because they have the means to make their own provisions and that money can be better spent on those who really need it

Is this really a socialist view? Or does it feed a more an ultimately neo liberal capitalist view which is driving privatisation of certain services?

One of the arguments in politics atm is one about equality v fairness.

There is a whole argument about whether one family can work very hard, have full time, high stress professional jobs and still be struggling to afford housing whereas you have someone on benefits who has a council house and only works part-time.

That's where a lot of the support for austerity has come from.

We know one family locally where the father works at McDonald's and they have a council house which on the open market would be worth in the region of £275k. The mother doesn't work.

If you work on the assumption of a 3.5 mortgage multipler you'd need a household income in the region of £78,000 to buy the same 3 small bed house. (House prices here have stagnated for 10 years so equity gain from property locally doesn't exist).

It also means that local families which previously would have been able to move up the ladder to 4 bed detached can't afford it unless they have inheritance. Or they are only available to families that have moved in from elsewhere having benefitted from equity increases elsewhere.

I know a number of professional families with two incomes who are having to move out of the area when they do want to move to a bigger property because they can no longer afford to stay in the area. Or they have to stay in a house the same size as the 'benefit scroungers' to stay in the 'nice area with good schools and security' they see as their right having worked for it.

This neglects to consider the historic and family ties that the 'council family' have to the area and perhaps their right to stay in the area. Is it fair they should be shipped off to somewhere cheaper, which has worse schools and more crime? Why shouldn't the council flog their house on the open market and then build 3 others in its place somewhere else in the area from the money raised?

That's why we are getting this resentment building up between different groups.

The benefit of working isn't being perceived as being there. And the value of long term communities isn't there.

Is this promoting equality of opportunity?

Then you have the older generation who don't understand how affordability of housing has changed and how much pressure and tension that's producing who have strong NIMBY tenancies to protect their environment and what they see as their quality of life who are resisting the building of anything, combined with developers who are out to make a profit first meaning the only things getting built are large detached executive properties that can only be afforded by those moving in or those with inheritance.

None of the major three parties have really got to grips with providing a solution to this, all for their own reasons, and because they want to pander to their voter base in some way.

It does always come back to the shortage of houses there are. EVERYTHING comes back to the cost of housing and how this is affecting perceptions of fairness and equality across the country and between different groups.

It frustrates me intensely as I feel somewhat sympathetic to everyone and understand their point of view and motivations.

What is 'fair'?

How do we promote equal access to things like 'good schools' at the same time as getting the benefit from working?

I don't have any answers here but the lack of selling the need to 'balance the needs' of different groups in society is one of the biggest problems here. Instead each group is being pited against the other, with winner takes all because of the way our political system is working and how parties are pandering to their core vote through popularism (and being the least worst option) rather than selling a wider vision and ideal which has broad appeal and benefit to everyone in someway. Politicians don't canvas in areas which they don't think they will pick up votes; they only campaign to easy targets.

Brexit is merely a symptom of the same clash and is more obvious. Society has fragmented and is no longer cohesive and politics reflects that.

It's hard for someone living in a big 4 bed detached to be friends with someone living in a run down council flat because of the inequality and the wedges that are being driven between us because of financial inequality. It's increasingly being the case that the two properties will be in completely different areas and not side by side anyway and never shall we meet.

What should the state provide, and what should we pay for ourselves?

What is it we value most and should we have equal access to those things we value most?

I don't think we are really having proper conversations about this as a nation.

Please remember the formation of the NHS came out of one of these type of conversations: The idea that everyone should have equal access to care even if the could afford it already.

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