Westminstenders: "He's in trouble". No he's not.

[RedToothBrush]

All day I've seen nothing but comments and tweets about he Johnson is in trouble and he's losing it.

They are wrong. He's far from done.

Take a step through the Looking Glass and the world looks different.

Those tweeting and reporting all care about events and are following closely. They are unrepresentative of the population as a whole who don't give two shiny shits.

And so we have the Trump dynamic.

The Liberal elite of broadcasters and journalists who are only seeing through the lens of their own judgement, not from the repackaged marketing.

Instead they are unwittingly publishing the images and slogans in the format Johnson wants and enter the minds of the public as planned.

The media are out of step with perceptions. And that's worrying. They don't see what's coming.

Johnson will have an election at some point. With the Tory party cleansed of moderates it is the Brexit Party one way or another, whether it be by takeover or coalition. And its riding high in the polling.

Even though even his brother has abandoned him, the future looks positive for Johnson as his opponents have a complete lack of self awareness and no understanding of the opposition they are taking on; they are campaigning in a way that plays into the hands of Johnson.

Despite his lack of majority and apparently absence of plan or speech notes, the biggest mistake you can make now is to write off Johnson.

You do so at your own peril.

Pay close attention to how authoritarians work and what's already happened in the US. We are on course to repeat it.

Very much so Bear, things like childcare should be free, another step in the National Education Service, just because I'm on the left doesnt mean I'm against people being wealthy, good for them if they are, I'm just not happy at the gap between the 1% and the bottom I'm not even talking about the 5%, education, health and social care should be free paid for by taxes and NI

A quick google claims:
The origin of the expression has been attributed to William III, a 17th century king of Ireland and Great Britain, who replied to the threat of invading French with this badass quote:

"There is one certain means by which I can be sure never to see my country's ruin: I will die in the last ditch."

William III was otherwise known as King Billy, or William of Orange. What a coincidence.

Irish Twitter also picked up on JRM's dig at Parnell (an Irish MP in the 19th c who had a policy of obstructionism, got Gladstone to bring the first Home Rule bill, and let to Churchill's Dad declaring the Orange card. (It quickly descended into a great twitter poll on Irish historical hunks....
twitter.com/theirishfor/status/1168978872869806080?s=20
)

*Cwenthryth

Yes the phrase was used in the same way by my (northern) mum & Grandma .. as the possible consequence of going out and missing the last bus or similar catastrophe.

justare you saying you think it’s ok for someone on 6 figure salary to get 30 hour childcare by removing the means testing?

I think this is arguable in the context of their tax burden being so high. Its pretty much my issue - if I wasnt spending so much on childcare I'd be a lot less worried about paying more tax and more likely to vote labour.

It's not about what's ok as such, its about what's workable / what policies make a party electable.

Very much so Bear, things like childcare should be free, another step in the National Education Service, just because I'm on the left doesnt mean I'm against people being wealthy

With all your moaning about how the Tories leave the poor on a scrap heap I find that astounding.

Why on earth would you think it’s a good use of government funds to pay for free childcare for people on high salaries?

There’s hundreds of things that money could be better spent on

The thing with childcare for me, is that DH has a high income and me on low income.

Therefore we were better off with me not working.

Thus the logic of free universal child care would have a big impact on the lives of some - particularly women like me. It would help women in abusive relationships, have financial independence and protect them from hardship later if the relationship were to break down.

Should that be being done?

In an ideal world yes, because there is value to society in this.

Is it a priority and can it be justified given pressures on the system elsewhere and the very real hardship others face?

That's much much harder to argue. It definitely is something that's going to benefit better off households rather than low income households.

And that raises the question of what the role of the state should be.

There’s hundreds of things that money could be better spent on

Arguably well provided, well resourced childcare is an excellent thing to spend money on, I want society to improve for all not because of what they can afford but because of whats fair. So do you feel only the rich should be able to access good services Bear? Tories gonna Tory eh Bear

If he's aiming deliberately at the Midlands and northern regions now to use against London he's a hypocrite of breathtaking proportions. But we already knew that, and his methods: it just makes things clearer to me. 'Scuse me while I go and swear for a bit.

Exactly same situation here red

Arguably well provided, well resourced childcare is an excellent thing to spend money on, I want society to improve for all not because of what they can afford but because of whats fair. So do you feel only the rich should be able to access good services Bear? Tories gonna Tory eh Bear

No, of course it’s not only the rich who should be able to access good services - in fact the complete opposite

There’s absolutely no logic to your argument.

I’m saying the rich should not get free childcare because they have the means to make their own provisions and that money can be better spent on those who really need it

I’m saying the rich should not get free childcare because they have the means to make their own provisions and that money can be better spent on those who really need it

A parents wealth should have no bearing on a childs care and education, it would also put paid to the idea of Labour stripping your wages bare if at the end of the month you dont have an extortionate childcare, rent, power, water and public transport costs

There’s hundreds of things that money could be better spent on

Yes, but to be able to spend the money Labour need to get themselves elected and they need the tax from the high earners in order to have the money to spend.

So they are better off realising that childcare costs are pretty crippling even if you're above £100k and doing something to mitigate that. Makes them more likely to get into power and keeps more women in work therefore more tax coming in and money to spend.

Same situation here, red and hoooo

Recently quite shocked how hard it can be to prove id if you’re not the bill payer in the family (often a recent utility bill requested).

I had never heard the saying, 'Die in a ditch'.

What I would expect him to have said, is 'Over my dead body' i.e. I will die defending it. But no doubt the saying was carefully crafted, as his whole shambolic speech will actually have been carefully crafted. But what, as people have commented, goes down well with a paying after dinner audience, will not necessarily go down well with the General Public.

I think dead in a ditch was a bad choice of phrase 😣

Personally Id advocate for Labour to scrap the means testing on CB

Sorry just you have completely lost me.

I believe those who can afford it should not rely on the state for handouts as there’s not enough to go round anyway.

Who do you think is going to pay for this free childcare for high earners? Ie, what cut backs or tax increases would you be happy to see to fund it

Personally Id advocate for Labour to scrap the means testing on CB

OK, my head is officially pickled.

I guess it’s the natural outcome of believing in Labour’s magic money tree

What Labour has already costed, the introduction of a 45p of earning over 80K - 123K and anything over 123K is at 50p, raising the tax rate on multi nationals while keeping SME rates low, removing charitable status from private school fees will also help

I believe those who can afford it should not rely on the state for handouts as there’s not enough to go round anyway.

Why look at it as a handout, thats the Tory in you for sure, its a wealthy, civilised country providing a service for its citizens

What this turn in the debate has highlighted is how broken society is. Childcare costs are either astronomical or families relying on grandparents as unpaid carers; cost of housing is sky high with people paying stupid amounts in rent, or needing a whopping deposit to get a mortgage, which once you have achieved that might actually be cheaper than renting.

@Peregrina , I've hear the expression "die in a ditch ". It's a bit Enid Blyton but I've heard it plenty.

I guess it’s the natural outcome of believing in Labour’s magic money tree

ODFOD

removing charitable status from private school fees will also help

Removing the charitable status from the schools, and then making them pay the full business rates, as state schools have to. This would go a long way, and Eton and Harrow would still be well off.

This thread is hard to keep up with! At 10.18:

DarkatEndofUK Sex was a factor in the 2016 vote. Women were more likely to vote for Brexit than men: in some classes, by quite a bit too.

Is this really true? I must admit I think I'd heard pointers to the opposite being true...

WhatwouldScoobyDoo

Cwenthryth

Yes the phrase was used in the same way by my (northern) mum & Grandma .. as the possible consequence of going out and missing the last bus or similar catastrophe

My BAME parents moved here from overseas back in the early sixties, arrived in West London and never left. I also heard this phrase through teenage years!

Mind, they also used to say' If someone told you to jump out of the window, would you just do it?' to discourage blind following of others...