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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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Thread gallery
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Cwenthryth · 05/09/2019 10:00

A lot of theories are based on Johnson really wanting no deal, so he’s gaming to achieve that by hook or by crook.
Or, he really wants the WA, so he’s gaming for that.

Honestly, I don’t think he knows what he wants, or actually cares no deal vs WA vs unicorn deal.... I think he just wants to be PM, and the only way he stays PM is to ‘deliver Brexit’ - I don’t think he really minds how that happens.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 10:02

Does Boris Johnson’s government have a women problem?

It was noticed here on Tuesday that Boris seems to have a problem talking to women as equals. Not sure if it's been noticed with Angela Merkel or Nicola Sturgeon. But it might explain some of his behaviour in a cabinet with Theresa May as PM.

howabout · 05/09/2019 10:04

I apologise for every time I have ridiculed Ian Blackford SNP Leader.

He rightly pointed out on Peston that if the commons don't vote for a GE before prorogation they will be forced to come back and listen to a Boris Queen's speech. At that point they either vote for it or he loses a vote of no confidence and gets to step down before having to ask the EU for an extension.

The EU cannot reach over the head of the UK Executive (Queen's prerogative powers) to unilaterally grant an extension on the strength of the Bill. That is a fundamental misunderstanding of UK Constitution, such as it is. Someone else would have to ask. So either Remainers coalesce around Corbyn (most likely) or they sidestep him and get someone else to do it in the name of Unity prior to a GE. Either option works for Corbyn.

Option1 Corbyn owns the extension and Boris gets most of the Brexit Party vote

Option 2 Corbyn looks unelectable and Remainers split Labour / LibDem 50:50

As a footnote I now think I see the JC / JMD counter strategy. Their seats are safe whatever and neither really wants to be in Downing Street. They are both Lexiters. If Labour loses 50-100 MPs they will be mostly Blairites. They don't actually want to win.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 10:04

Cwenthryth I believe both those theories incorrect. Johnson's priority is to keep being PM for as long as possible. Which is why he is flip flopping. He's trying to keep both sides with him for an early election rather than resolve the situation.

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DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 10:06

Honestly, I don’t think he knows what he [Boris] wants

He wants the world he was promised from the moment he could speak ... a world where he and people like him (that is male whatever ..) lead and you and I tug our forelock as he passed by, and have to be prevented by courtiers from trying to kiss him every few yards shouting Gawd bless you Mister Johnson, Gawd bless you

Basically he wants to extend the bubble he lives in, to the nation. A nation where everybody knows their place, and (more importantly) everybody knows Boris is boss.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 10:06

Joshua Rozenberg @JoshuaRozenberg
Good morning from R (Miller) v Prime Minister, in the High Court of England and Wales (Divisional Court). Gina Miller represented by Lord Pannick QC. PM represented by Sir David Eadie QC. Judges are Lord Burnett CJ, Sir Terence Etherton MR, Dame Victoria Sharp President QBD.

This is a live twitter feed of the High Court action to stop prorogation.

This is separate to the Cherry Action taking place in the Scottish courts.

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ListeningQuietly · 05/09/2019 10:07

PMK
head is spinning
I shall go and weed my vegetables as I know what they are planning

howabout · 05/09/2019 10:10

Sorry should read either option works for Boris

pp referring to chess is the only one paying attention. However those hoping for a LibDem holding the balance of power outcome to engineer Remain have missed that it is not just Boris / Cummings playing chess.

Grieve / Phillips / Starmer look to be playing tiddlywinks sadly.

Loving David Gauke climb down for the sheer comedy value. The Tory Remain faux outrage has Gove circa 2015 all over it. (Gove ran the 2015 GE campaign which accidentally delivered a Conservative majority - he is often a victim of his own success)

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 10:10

He rightly pointed out on Peston that if the commons don't vote for a GE before prorogation they will be forced to come back and listen to a Boris Queen's speech. At that point they either vote for it or he loses a vote of no confidence and gets to step down before having to ask the EU for an extension.

That's if prorogation happens ... I'm trying to to succumb to the temptation to smirk all day at the thought that what seemed such a spiffing wheeze last Wednesday, is now the worst thing in the world, as it gives Corbyn a good excuse (if it were needed) to wait until October to agree to an election. Maybe after Boris Queens speech fails.

HesterThrale · 05/09/2019 10:14

From the New York Times:

Why does Prime Minister Boris Johnson want Britain to vote before Brexit happens, not after? A baroness had a theory: “What he doesn’t want is an election down the road when we’re all eating barbecued rat."

twitter.com/nytimes/status/1169516796308873217

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 10:16

Jane Green @profjanegreen
Trust is everything in negotiations and in fraught parliamentary divisions. They've resorted to power (force), when they needed power with authority (trust and persuasion).

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howabout · 05/09/2019 10:17

Does Boris have a women problem Difficult argument to run when he spent all of the Saj's speech chatting with Priti. Also think Nicky and Amber (who is quite sure he can give her a good night out and leave her to make her own travel arrangements home). Also bear in mind that Carrie was / is (?) part of the Tory PR machine. When Cummings steps aside post Brexit, as he is being tee'd up to do (remember he isn't a Tory and doesn't want the job long term - he does however appeal to a certain sort of Brexit Party supporter) get ready for a very different looking inner circle.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 10:17

Claire Phipps @claire_phipps
A reporter from the Sun has taken "a pink floral blouse" to Jeremy Corbyn's house after Boris Johnson called him "a great big girl's blouse", because we're still in a world in which being "womanly" is a huge insult and a fatal flaw
(this via @PA)
t.co/ZN78XMhO5Y

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woodpigeons · 05/09/2019 10:17

I totally agree with Lewis Goodall.
BJ’s shenanigans have achieved what May’s dictatorial, nannying manner never could, genuine cross party collaboration.
That, I believe, is why a deal can be made with the eu and can be ratified by all parties even if it is not what they had originally hoped for.
It’s strange that I, and I’m sure other remainers, are now hoping for a deal, even May’s deal. But BJ, or rather Cumming’s puppet, has showed us how bad things could have been without brave and resourceful politicians.
I hope that this will lead to a written constitution to prevent any further misuse of power and a genuine change in the way the house conducts its affairs. The time when our leaders were forged on the playing fields of Eton should be long past.
Maybe I’m being too optimistic and have been swayed by the fact that I have seen that, in the middle of this maelstrom, we still have politicians who are prepared to stand up for their principles even at the cost of their careers.
If so I will, shell shocked from binge watching Westminsters live, bask in my pleasant glow until further BJ’s further actions destroy it.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 05/09/2019 10:17

There's also the option to amend the Queens Speech, as attempted in 2017. It's not quite as clear cut as accepting or rejecting it. Rejecting it also doesn't automatically mean GE either, so it could well still see the current government legally required to request the extension.

Apileofballyhoo · 05/09/2019 10:18

...facing another no deal at the end of January?

...could be facing this under any scenario with the way things are going.

Thanks Red. I was initially hopeful last night and now I'm gone back to being depressed. We need a WA signed, I don't care what the spin is.

I hope team Labour have got some shit hot communications spinmeisters somewhere. Absolutely, DGR. Any ideas? Because I actually can't think of anything better than what he has said already, on the fence as it is. For all the derision a Jobs First Brexit attracts, isn't it actually the best thing available for everyone? Isn't Revoke just a unicorn?

I wonder could the Tory party be spun as the sneaky 'Remainers'. After all, it's full of 'elites' and has been in power since the referendum without any Brexit happening.

Jeremy Corbyn needs to speak up for business too. Business creates jobs. He needs to be the one making that link as opposed to Boris Johnson saying fuck business. And he needs to keep his language clear and simple, and keep repeating the same things. Be a John Hume. One message and stick to it.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 10:19

Re High Court Case against prorogation

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Main ground of challenge - not fact of prorogation but its length and purpose

In essence: HM given duff advice, and that advise must be quashed

Not a surprise.

Could get messy.

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OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 05/09/2019 10:20

If I was Corbyn, I'd wear the blouse with pride assuming it fit

howabout · 05/09/2019 10:21

DGR I think it may well suit Boris to delay the election till after 31 October when Parliament has reached over his head and "surrendered to the EU". It also boxes him firmly into No Deal when the election comes.

Careful what you wish for.

Frankiestein402 · 05/09/2019 10:21

@yamayo I'm sure Boris was deliberately channelling Thatcher with 'frit', playing to his pensioner brexit vote - rather than skinner's jibe to May.
Though I suspect he wasn't paralleling Thatcher's claim to michael foot that she wasn't frit of calling an election.

Basilpots · 05/09/2019 10:27

Think he’ll ditch proroguing. ‘Nothing to see here M’Lord all above aboard’.

Don’t think for one moment Government would lose the case but they could do without all the awkward questions when Johnsons’ Achilles heel has always been is he trustworthy?

Also means he can continue to apply pressure to Corbyn for an election and continue to roll out what is essentially an election campaign without costing the Tory party anything. Spending pledges yesterday got completely lost in all the other drama.

howabout · 05/09/2019 10:30

Apileofballyhoo Labour cannot run on a platform to deliver a "jobs first Brexit" without losing an absolute avalanche of votes to the LibDems. Even if they did the final outcome would still be a coalition with the LibDems who would insist on Revoke but be "persuaded" to run a No Deal / Remain PV. Neither can now support a WA / Remain PV without howls of hypocrisy and stitch up from Remainers and Leavers. The outcome of a WA / Remain PV would never be seen as legitimate by the 52% in any case.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 10:30

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/04/more-than-100000-people-apply-register-vote-youth-uk-general-election

Somehow, I can't see them voting Tory ...

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 10:30

Dominic Casciani @bbcdomc
The PM's legal team says there is no precedent for the courts to intervene.

Pannick: "We say that there is no precedent because no PM in modern history has abused his power" in this way.

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0lga · 05/09/2019 10:31

PMK