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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 10:33

Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse
Pannick: Consequence of prorogation raises prospect that “One of his successors from a political party whose political philosophy is very different may prorogue parliament for six months, a yaer, or until the next election is due under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.”

Robert Craig @robertcraig3
The court must have power and duty to protect parliamentary sovereignty from an abuse of power. Court can apply legal standard of abuse of power.

Good stuff in the High Court so far.

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Ohflippineck · 05/09/2019 10:34

RedToothBrush

Claire Phipps @claire_phipps
A reporter from the Sun has taken "a pink floral blouse" to Jeremy Corbyn's house after Boris Johnson called him "a great big girl's blouse", because we're still in a world in which being "womanly" is a huge insult and a fatal flaw”

Is there really still anyone out there, even amongst their own readership, who is so dense that they are susceptible to manipulation by this sort of infantile (with apologies to infants) pantomiming?

That’s one of the most depressing things I’ve read for a while, even amongst the tidal wave of depressing things we’ve had to endure.

How many times are the BBC going to ask Labour Party representatives if Corbyn is “chicken” (FFS) and what their strategy is? Do they think people are deaf? (or just stupid which, yes okay, is possible). They have a very clear, for once eminently sensible, policy. Election, yes, as soon as threat of no deal is removed. After hours of discussion of the same point on Newsnight last night and Today this morning, they’re wittering in about it again on 5 now. Round and round in circles. You could be mistaken for thinking some broadcasters and hitherto unheard of politicians - and nasty self publicists like Andrew Bridgen and Nigel Evans 🤮 - are enjoying this.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 10:35

Corbyn doesn't need a dark arts spin team. He just needs to play back clips of Boris insisting he didn't want an election from Monday when anyone asks.

DGR I think it may well suit Boris to delay the election till after 31 October when Parliament has reached over his head and "surrendered to the EU". It also boxes him firmly into No Deal when the election comes.

But in that event, why do we need an election at all ? The Tory 21 could help create a GNU, to carry on ? That way they'd still be "respecting the referendum", but not through the car crash of no deal.

Or at least that's one possibility that needs to be floated past Boris Johnson-Cummings little mind. Just in case he hadn't enough to worry about .....

Ohflippineck · 05/09/2019 10:37

Surprised the press haven’t picked up on BoZo’s Freudian slip last night - “I want an election” then hasty “Er, I’m willing to have an election”.

LonelyTiredandLow · 05/09/2019 10:40

Yes precedents seem to be being cracked all over this Brexit like nothing before - hence constitutional crisis. Hardly seems a reason not to do it!

Cummings being drunk / abusive is the start of the ego's cracking I feel The trouble with bullies who think they are clever is that they can't hack it when their plan goes awry and think more force is needed. It's usually what gets them 'caught' IME.

The 'woman problem' isn't just for women in this sense, a lot of the chicken / remoaner jibes have hit men just as much over 3 years and turns them into a party who no one trusts. Leavers on my fb being very quiet so far. None of them would previously have countenanced voting Tory, despite seeming to like BoZo. Farage is holding quite a few cards on that front.

Grinchly · 05/09/2019 10:42

Ahem..Grin

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 10:44

I wonder if team Boris is going to throw the prorogation case ? And if so, how ?

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 10:45

Full list of MPs standing down at the next General

Conservative
Guto Bebb, Aberconwy
Nick Boles, Grantham
Alastair Burt, North East Bedfordshire
Ken Clarke, Rushcliffe
Glyn Davies, Montgomeryshire
Michael Fallon, Sevenoaks
Justine Greening, Putney
Richard Harrington, Watford
Jeremy LeFroy, Stafford
Oliver Letwin, West Dorset
Keith Simpson, Broadland
Nicholas Soames, Mid Sussex
David Tredinnick, Bosworth

Labour
Kevin Barron, Rother Valley
Roberta Blackman-Woods, City of Durham
Ronnie Campbell, Blyth Valley
Gloria De Piero, Ashfield
Jim Fitzpatrick, Poplar and Limehouse
Kate Hoey, Vauxhall
Albert Owen, Ynys Mon
Teresa Pearce, Erith and Thamesmead
Stephen Pound, Ealing North
Stephen Twigg, Liverpool West Derby
Geoffrey Robinson, Coventry North West

Lib Dem
Norman Lamb, North Norfolk
Vince Cable, Twickenham

Interesting that the Labour list contains a lot of their rebels and Norman Lamb is luke warm at best with the LD position on Brexit, although his age means he was likely to retire soon anyway.

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MoltoAgitato · 05/09/2019 10:48

How many of those MPs stepping down are from Remain constituencies?

DarkAtEndOfUK · 05/09/2019 10:49

Oh no, Ken Clark's not allowed to retire. He's better than Terry Wogan.

PMK, ta.

LonelyTiredandLow · 05/09/2019 10:51

Can someone kindly go over how we can get a GNU without an election? I feel i've missed a bit here Grin

And sorry for the "BJC" (I won't type in full) names - an attempt at humour and search engine algorithm japes

howabout · 05/09/2019 10:51

Legal case just feeds the narrative that not just Parliament but also lawyers / courts attempting to subvert Democracy - why I think the case will fail but also why no chance Govt will cancel prorogation.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 10:53

Don't forget the data ...

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/09/05/brexit_no_deal/

Too much detail to post, but TL;DR is that it would pretty much cripple a lot of businesses from 23:01 on 31st October

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 10:55

Robert Peston@peston
No.10 has this week been testing the campaign slogan “trust the people” with focus groups, for marginal seats, I understand. I wonder why?

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LonelyTiredandLow · 05/09/2019 10:57

Because NO ONE trusts BoZo Grin

Calyx72 · 05/09/2019 10:57

Meanwhile in Scotland
(From Led by Donkeys and can be seen for MILES) Grin

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
howabout · 05/09/2019 10:57

Lonely If Boris loses VoNC then "opposition" have 14 days to form an alternative administration or there is a GE under FTPA. The alternative would be a GNU.

DGR GNU would only ever be to get the extension because ex Tories / LibDems wouldn't support a Corbyn Government and vice versa.

LonelyTiredandLow · 05/09/2019 10:59

Aha, 14 days! I had forgotten that bit, thanks howabout.

I think that is a good plan tbh, they are all working far more collaboratively than they did before the break.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 11:00

why I think the case will fail but also why no chance Govt will cancel prorogation.

So a great reason for Corbyn to hold off on supporting an election, then.

We'll talk when we get back to parliament

Rinse and repeat.

And if Boris doesn't like it, he can explain to the nation how come the Prime Minister suddenly needs the leader of the opposition to dance to his tune ?

In my mind, I've just seen Corbyn performing an updated version of Dylans "Subterranean Homesick Blues" with flip cards asking the questions.

howabout · 05/09/2019 11:02

Red have the rest of the Tory rebels and ex Labour Independents confirmed they are standing? I know Frank Field is.

Norman Lamb constituency is Leave so this may be a lost seat for LibDems.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 11:02

Legal case just feeds the narrative that not just Parliament but also lawyers / courts attempting to subvert Democracy

I share this concern, but I'm glad to see the points raised anyway.

It's important that they are going forward to focus a few minds in parliament tbh.

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Basilpots · 05/09/2019 11:03

Best outcome for court case could be a loss though.

If Judge says I know he lied but can’t do anything about it kicks the idea of legal establishment as ‘enemies of the people’ into touch but gets it on record that Johnson and his regime are liars.

howabout · 05/09/2019 11:12

Caroline Spelman announced she is stepping down at next GE (probably why she wasn't expelled yesterday)

I'm thinking we are close to 40ish Tory Remain MPs going from May's 317?

Labour also has upwards of 20 anti-Corbyn sitting MPs who are either already cross benchers or are resigning.

Spiderhands · 05/09/2019 11:14

PMK

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 11:15

Red have the rest of the Tory rebels and ex Labour Independents confirmed they are standing? I know Frank Field is.
No not yet.

I think many are still considering their position / talking to the rebel alliance about an electoral pact.

Norman Lamb constituency is Leave so this may be a lost seat for LibDems.

He kept the seat despite this largely because of the imcumbent effect BUT the LDs have a strong presence and good reputation in the area too. They did a lot better than expected here during the locals and the EU elections (LDs were up 14. 3% to 27.3% of the vote. Cons on 8.9% down 17% since 2014. The Brexit Party got 41.7%. Green 10.2% Ukip 4.1% and Lab 3.8%). At the last General Lamb had 48.4%, the Cons 41.7% and Labour 9.9%. I still think its one that's difficult to call and largely depends on the Tory / Brexit Party arrangements on candidates.

If Boris loses VoNC then "opposition" have 14 days to form an alternative administration or there is a GE under FTPA. The alternative would be a GNU.

Harder to do if Parliament is prorogued but not impossible

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