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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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GeistohneGrenzen · 05/09/2019 09:29

pmk

HunkyDory69 · 05/09/2019 09:30

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This has been deleted by MNHQ for breaking our Talk Guidelines.

Apileofballyhoo · 05/09/2019 09:36

What if he goes to Brussels, gets an extension, and then goes for an election?

He loses the trust and therefore support of Brexit Party / Tory swing voters who abandon him in favour of Farage.

But could we then be looking at a Tory/BP coalition and facing another no deal at the end of January?

prettybird · 05/09/2019 09:37

Adam Boulton on Sky News has just claimed that BlowJob never worked for Max Hastings, so that Yasmin Alibi-Brown's statement that BlowJob was sacked by him for lying was wrong Confused He also insisted to her that Hastings was Times and not Telegraph. Confused

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 09:38

Of course, the one solution to the EUs ambivalence about extensions, and the UK, is to ..... revoke - which is the only other unilateral option (apart from no-deal) that is open to us.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 09:38

Theo Usherwood@theousherwood
Breakthrough: Bill to receive Royal Assent Friday afternoon.

PM now has chance to table a motion for an early election on Monday. Given what Corbyn said yesterday, difficult to see how - without a mass Labour rebellion - the government doesn’t reach the magic number of 434.

Nick Boles MP @nickboles
Wrong. The early election motion cannot be moved again until the new parliamentary session ie until 14 Oct.

There seems to be some disagreement over this though.

I wouldn't be surprised if prorogation is delayed - and that's one of the things in Johnson's speech - in order to give him more time to trigger that election.

Prorogation was about stopping the rebels blocking him / defeating him in Commons / looking tough to Brexiteers.

If he can say that he has no choice but to reverse prorogation because of the undemocratic opposition he might well do.

He has already been blocked in Commons / been heavily defeated / demonstrated his willingness to prorogue

Also with all the stuff coming out about reasons for proroguing and how he might have lied to the Queen there might be legal reasons why he might want to reverse on prorogation to avoid certain things coming out in court tomorrow at the Cherry Appeal.

Remember Johnson strategy is completely underpinned by his need for a GE.

He's now appealing directly to the public for them to apply pressure to force a GE.

Thus if it suits him to stop/delay prorogation in order to help him get that GE that's what he will do.

So thats my gut feeling for tonight. Could be wildly wrong on this one though.

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DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 09:39

Rumours that Dominic Cummings was drunk out of control tired and emotional last night and accosted Corbyn ...

twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1169175685782528000

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 09:41

But could we then be looking at a Tory/BP coalition and facing another no deal at the end of January?

We could be facing this under any scenario with the way things are going.

No one knows really.

A GE still is a huge gamble for Johnson.

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peridito · 05/09/2019 09:42

please PrettyBird just use BJ or a name . I ask because I would like to keep up with the thread and read ppl's views .

I try and read quickly but your terminology jars /throws me off and interrupts the flow .

Perhaps I'm a minority .

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 09:42

MP for North thanet

Sir Roger Gale MP @sirrogergale
I stand by the observation that I made. My impression is that Dominic Cummings is an unelected foul-mouthed liability who has no place at the heart of a Conservative Downing Street. The manner in which he has treated respected colleagues is disgraceful and he has to go. 1/2

Either Mr Johnson gets this under control or the Prime Minister’s own reputation will suffer further and possibly terminal damage. 2/2

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Apileofballyhoo · 05/09/2019 09:43

Nothing wrong with being called chicken in my book. As a kid it inevitably meant someone wanted you to do something dangerous and stupid.

Absolutely, bestiswest or is it westisbest, sorry! So Jermey Corbyn needs to actually say that in parliament. Calling someone "chicken" to provoke them into doing something dangerous and stupid is extremely childish and should be beneath the Prime Minister of our great nation or some such thing.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 09:44

He's now appealing directly to the public for them to apply pressure to force a GE.

The irony being that the UKs political system currently doesn't recognise such a beast. And (if my memory serves) on the few occasions it's been suggested, Tories have always told us how bad for democracy it would be - maybe even Boris himself.

More than a million people marched in March and were ignored. Now he wants to listen.

I hope team Labour have got some shit hot communications spinmeisters somewhere.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 09:44

Helene von Bismarck @helenebismarck
This a dangerous moment. A PM publicly begging the Leader of the Opposition for an election, and being denied it, is would be the next stage in “the people against parliament”-politics. If it is granted before extension, this may result in No Deal. A risky&unsavoury choice.

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RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 09:46

Labour Whips @ labourwhips
Update:

2 UQs

1. Lidington to ask Shapps if he will make a statement on the Government’s review of HS2.

2. @tony4rochdale to ask @JulianSmithUK to make a statement on any assessment his Department has made of the impact of prorogation on governance and accountability in NI

Urgent Questions scheduled for 10.30am this morning

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Frankiestein402 · 05/09/2019 09:46

Surely the BorisCummings 'strategy' couldn't have been to let a spending splurge be pushed off the front pages by the votes yesterday - if they had any strategic nouse surely they'd have found an excuse to push back the statement?
That sort of mistake gives me hope.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 09:47

Helene von Bismarck @helenebismarck
Here is the thing: Johnson is only “trapped” in No 10 if he does not have a realistic plan for a deal with the EU. If he thinks he can get one, nothing prevents him, even now, to present it to the EU ASAP and bring negotiations to a successful close before 31 October.

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DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 09:50

I wouldn't be surprised if prorogation is delayed - and that's one of the things in Johnson's speech - in order to give him more time to trigger that election.

This has all the hallmarks of a Ianucci classic where there's a conga of people going from one side of a vote to another.

Boris prorogues parliament, but assures us it's all part of parliamentary business as usual.
Then Boris doesn't want an election - and goes on TV to tell us that.
Then Boris does want an election, and gets super bratty when Corbyn suggests it's not the time (if only Corbyn had said he was simply agreeing with the Prime Minsters statements of earlier ...)
Now Boris doesn't want to prorogue parliament (although it's supposed to be the usual course of events).

That's even before we consider that he's effectively told anyone who might not support the expulsion of the 21 that they're also expelled.

If I saw that horse in the paddock before a race, I'm not sure I'd feel confident it could finish the course, let alone win.

bellinisurge · 05/09/2019 09:50

I think he's gaming a possible solution where the EU turfs us out with No Deal. And he will be disappointed.

dontcallmelen · 05/09/2019 09:51

PMK, thank you again Red & everyone, I’m still trying to process what’s is going will be another interesting day.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 09:53

Here is the thing: Johnson is only “trapped” in No 10 if he does not have a realistic plan for a deal with the EU. If he thinks he can get one, nothing prevents him, even now, to present it to the EU ASAP and bring negotiations to a successful close before 31 October.

Oh, forgot that Grin. Of course Boris has also been assuring us that he's working on a deal. So that's another pressure point Corbyn can use ... "... it would be imprudent to agree to an election when the Prime Minister has assured us he is working on a deal ..."

(Has Boris told the House he's working on a deal ? Because that should be a bad lie ot get caught in .....)

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 09:53

Meanwhile we won a lotto lucky dip last night. So something is looking up Grin

Myriade · 05/09/2019 09:56

So what is planned for today in the HoC and HoL now that the bill has been pased by both chambers?
BJ will ask for a GE on Monday and will make a speech at 6.00pm today.

Anything else to keep an eye on in particular?

Yamayo · 05/09/2019 09:56

By the way have lived in the UK nearly 30 years and had never heard the word 'frit' until yesterday.
Haven't yet googled to see what it means Grin

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 05/09/2019 09:58

Just to lighten the mood, footage emerges of Cummings advising Johnson on Ken Clark (via thepoke)

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 09:58

amp.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/sep/05/does-boris-johnsons-government-have-a-women-problem?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true
Does Boris Johnson’s government have a women problem?
With a resolutely male inner circle and the sacking of four female aides, it’s no surprise that accusations of misogyny have been levelled by the opposition. The question is whether it makes a difference at the ballot box

nor did Cummings’ behaviour on Tuesday night, after a vote to wrest control of parliamentary proceedings – widely seen as a humiliating defeat for his strategy – ended with a reportedly boisterous chance encounter between him and Jeremy Corbyn as the latter left for the night. The Labour frontbencher Cat Smith, who was with Corbyn, tweeted that at first she just thought there was “some loud bloke who stunk of booze yelling at us”.

This story has been confirmed by at least one journalist who was on the way back from the toilet who saw Cummings walking around with a glass of red wine shouting abuse.

He may now be cast as the cartoon villain of this administration, but when Cummings began work in 2002 for the then Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith, fear was arguably the last thing he inspired in female colleagues. “He couldn’t even manage his own life,” says one. “He used to wash his shirts in the office and hang them up in front of his desk, so you’d have to come through a line of dripping wet shirts to speak to him.” It didn’t last: Cummings left within months, frustrated that shadow cabinet ministers wouldn’t adopt his radical ideas.

AND

It was a different story when Michael Gove, then shadow education secretary, hired him as an adviser in 2007. After Gove moved from opposition to head up the Department for Education in 2010, Cummings was initially kept at arm’s length, but shortly after he formally joined the department in 2011, allegations of him intimidating civil servants began to emerge. They were denied, but it is a pattern some see repeated now in his treatment of Khan and his reported response to fellow special advisers that if they didn’t like his methods they could “fuck off”.

Yet the idea that he picks on women is, say those who have worked with him, untrue. “If he likes you and thinks you’re on side, he’ll work very effectively with you; if he thinks you’re disloyal or useless, he can be extremely unpleasant, but he did that to men and women,” says a longstanding former colleague. “I don’t think it’s a woman problem, I think it’s a ‘people he doesn’t like’ problem.”

His pet hates include perceived stupidity, laziness, or ideas being blocked for seemingly vague reasons, which may explain No 10’s sudden appetite for ripping up unwritten rules and conventions

Article then talks (at length) about Johnson being a borish lout with a bad attitude to women.

His inner circle in Downing Street, meanwhile, remains resolutely male compared with Cameron’s or May’s: this week’s spending review was presented, unusually, by an all-male Treasury ministerial lineup despite concerns about the impact of excluding women from economic policy-making.

As Dr Mary Ann Stephenson, head of the Women’s Budget Group, which analyses the gender impact of economic policy, points out, it has been accepted wisdom for years now that ministerial teams should be mixed in order to better reflect the reality of ordinary lives: “I can’t understand why this lesson needs to be relearned. I remember talking about this in the 90s.” But the emerging hallmark of the Johnson regime is that no conventional wisdom should be taken for granted, perhaps particularly not in the wake of a female PM many female voters did not feel served them well.

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