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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 09:05

Theo Usherwood@theousherwood
PM addressing nation later.

Key lines:

- "Surrender Bill" would "overturn" 2016 vote.
- "Only action is to go back to the people and give them the opportunity to decide".
- For Mr Corbyn to continue to avoid an elex would be a "cowardly insult to democracy".

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RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 09:06

Christopher Hope@christopherhope
Government decision to wave the white flag on no-deal legislation. If Boris Johnson wins the snap general election outright he can just repeal it.

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ContinuityError · 05/09/2019 09:06

I think many leave-minded voters wouldn’t support them for either or both of those reasons

I don’t believe that at all - Leavers don’t care what Johnson does as long as they get their Brexit. It’s the whole “the people v Parliamentary elite” narrative that Johnson is setting up.

Violetparis · 05/09/2019 09:06

I hate Boris.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 09:08

Well this is interesting...

Tom Kibashi @tomkibashi
IMPORTANT: My EU sources say if the no-deal bill passes, they will take a request for an extension from the UK as a matter of "legal fact" whether or not Johnson actually sends a letter himself.

This is unconfirmed but certainly interesting.

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OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 05/09/2019 09:11

Love the Mrs Merton channelling there by Nick Robinson

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 09:14

Tory MP and head of the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee has once again summoned Cummings to appear...

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
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prettybird · 05/09/2019 09:16

Re Theo Usherwood's predictions about what BlowJobCum will say in his "address": can we have a BJ Bingo Brexit Card? Grin

Violetparis · 05/09/2019 09:16

If the EU do that, even though I welcome it, it's a gift to Boris and Farage in their propaganda.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 09:16

Government decision to wave the white flag on no-deal legislation. If Boris Johnson wins the snap general election outright he can just repeal it.

So don't give him the snap election ?

So TL;DR is that Boris is going to have to go on television and plead for an election from Jeremy. That's a great look.

If I were Jeremy, I'd say I'd get back to Boris when parliament re-opens ... after Boris helpfully shut it down for 5 weeks.

Again, I'm not Jeremy. But he has it in his grasp.

Depending how things go, there may not be a Tory party when parliament reconvenes.

Incidentally, how does the Queens speech work if Boris has no majority ?

Cherrypi · 05/09/2019 09:17

I wonder if he'll do it outside to the sound of boos again or if he'll retreat inside somewhere?

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 09:18

The alternative extension answer.

Iain Martin @iainmartin1
Q What happens on Oct 19th and before Oct 31st when Johnson refuses to ask for an extension? He'll refuse to ask.

Christopher Hope@christopherhope
Or the PM will ask Hungary to veto his request at the EU council

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HesterThrale · 05/09/2019 09:19

In other news, Prof Michael Dougan (the real EU expert from before the Ref) is finally on Twitter. He’s telling of the positives of EU membership.

Of which the most important line: "the UK now boasts one of the largest, most committed and most active pro-European movements anywhere in the entire Union... [expressing] passionate commitment to Union membership and citizenship and to European identity and solidarity."

mobile.twitter.com/mdouganlpool/status/1169308884974088194

Sadly, it may be too late; the EU’s had enough of the U.K. From the FT link previously posted:

European decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out, fast.

Europeans distrust Johnson, but they also despair of Labour’s leader Jeremy Corbyn, who prioritises getting into Downing Street over shaping sensible Brexit policy, and they are close to giving up on Britain’s squabbling Remainers. Even if Remain won a second referendum, Brexiters would become a Trojan horse inside the EU.

Brussels expects Britain to reopen talks within a week of no deal. In the first days, the EU would allow the Irish border to remain porous, but continental ports would already be checking goods, causing delays and shortages in Britain. Brussels wouldn’t grant any longer-term fixes until London agreed to honour the backstop, pay its exit bill of £39bn and guarantee rights of European citizens in Britain.
But the risk is that by then, Johnson will have won an election with a hard-Brexit party. If he blames Europe, refuses to pay up and fantasises about shifting Britain into the US’s low-regulation zone through a trade deal with Trump, no deal could metastatize.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/110207f2-cea2-11e9-b018-

However Brexit ends, we’ve got a big, long, hard job on our hands. I just hope millions of folk are newly-politicised and ready to be more proactive.

Apileofballyhoo · 05/09/2019 09:19

I think it's more to demonstrate the Lords support the government and want Brexit. Nothing more sinister in this case.

Or is it to give BJ a chance to move for another general election before the 31st?

What if he goes to Brussels, gets an extension, and then goes for an election? (My phone offers me erection and ejection as well as Virus.)

What are the chances of BJ + Brexit Party getting in on the basis of an election after extension?

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 05/09/2019 09:20

What are the odds on something being said that he will then claim he didn't realise the meaning off, maybe like surrender monkey?

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 09:21

I still think the WA is terrible and will lead to prolonged economic & political instability in the UK.

I also think the mood re. Remain/Leave has changed. Most of Wales unequivocally wants to Remain.

So the WA won't solve the political instability.

The one thing it might do is solve Johnson's premiership - which would put hard-right, Conservative-in-name-only Tories in charge of sorting out a long-term Deal.

But I admire the reasoning of BigChoc and others who argue in favour.

Anyway. On it all goes. It's a worry.

None of this is over by a long shot.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 09:23

Re The rumours of the contents of Johnson's address to the nation:

Christopher Hope@christopherhope
Big problem with an Oct 15 election is if Boris Johnson fights on a platform of getting the backstop out of the deal at the EU council that week.

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party will then stand candidates against the Tories, splitting the vote and handing power to Jeremy Corbyn.

The fun of having to constantly pretend you don't want something when you really do and that you do want something when you really don't and trying to play to two galleries with diametrically opposed positions.

You end up upsetting everyone at some point.

Hope and trust only runs so deep even amongst your loyalists. As May ultimately found out.

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JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 09:24

What are the odds on something being said that he will then claim he didn't realise the meaning off, maybe like surrender monkey?

Dear God can you imagine it, trouble is I can

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 09:25

What if he goes to Brussels, gets an extension, and then goes for an election? (My phone offers me erection and ejection as well as Virus.)

He loses the trust and therefore support of Brexit Party / Tory swing voters who abandon him in favour of Farage.

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PestyMachtubernahme · 05/09/2019 09:26

People vs the Elite, remind me what side JohnsonCums is on.

Is that a burner phone in his pocket or he he just pleased to be a pleb

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 05/09/2019 09:27

Nick Boles on Theo Usherwoods tweet saying Johnson now has the option to go for election again on Monday
Wrong. The early election motion cannot be moved again until the new parliamentary session ie until 14 Oct.

BestIsWest · 05/09/2019 09:28

Nothing wrong with being called chicken in my book. As a kid it inevitably meant someone wanted you to do something dangerous and stupid.

cherin · 05/09/2019 09:28

If he’s outside, I might go and join the chanting ;-) if you hear ”Boris, PRRRRRRRRRRRRRrrrrrrrrrr!!!” It’s going to be me

In all this mess, we had a couple of friends willing to move to the U.K. she’s a doctor with 2 specialisations, he’s a engineer, one adorable kid, they tried a few years back but the visa process was far too convoluted (at the time their country was not in the EU), now they wanted to do it for real, but they’re giving up. The NHS had made her an offer for multiple positions, but still... He’s watching the Parliament channel and is horrified. I’m happy for their country because that’s two less cases of brain drain (3 if you count the kid that at 7 is already speaking perfect English as a foreign language). But it’s a pity for the U.K.

My mum who’s the least politically engaged person i know, and very little aware of current affairs, wrote me last night to say something that’s difficult to translate but if I had to do it in polite words it would be “aren’t Brits embarrassed by their politics?”. It wasn’t using polite words ;-)

Cwenthryth · 05/09/2019 09:29

Leavers don’t care what Johnson does as long as they get their Brexit.

Leavers aren’t the Borg. Very many are not natural Tories and I think would struggle to vote Tory at the best of times, let alone following the antics of JRM & BJ in the past few days, which are turning off even their own MPs.

Whether they then turn to BXP, Labour or anywhere else then depends on many other factors, personal, Brexit and non-Brexit, tactics in the seat they’re voting in.....

I think the only thing anyone could predict about the next GE, whenever it is, is that it’ll be unpredictable.

peridito · 05/09/2019 09:29

@Cwenthryth

  • I find the constant “Blow Job/Cum” references on these threads really puerile, we all know the view of the man, but the juvenile sexual puns are just unnecessary. makes me think less of the person writing it and discount their posts more.

Absolutely the above PLEASE STOP