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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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chomalungma · 05/09/2019 20:30

I do find it hopeful that there's been a surge in registering to vote recently, especially amongst the young.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 20:30

Thecat

A few things about this thread and support for the wa

  1. it's always been ahead of the curve on brexit

  2. a noticeable shift to support the WA has been observed in recent polling from both the remain and leave sides. There is a dawning reality happening.

  3. the thread has always been more informed and therefore acutely aware of the risk of no deal and has taken it seriously as a possible outcome rather than dismissing it as not likely to happen unlike politicians and the wider public. Its therefore become over time anti-No Deal rather than actively pro remain. (see points above)

  4. Understood that whether we go hard or soft ANY deal with the EU requires the WA which is not what politicians say or seem to understand. The lack of understanding what the purpose of the WA was always was a massive barrier for May. No one bothered because of the pursuit of tribalism or ideological purity.

I hypothetise that if this thread is ahead of the curve, been less tribal than other places, more informed of the real risk of no deal happening, think it more likely than politicians have suggested and understand what the WA is and what it is not that's why comments are perhaps more pro WA than the general population.

And what I think we are starting to see in the general population and amongst politicians on the opposition benches is merely them waking up to what many of us recognised and understood a lot earlier.

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TheMShip · 05/09/2019 20:32

Maybe busting the myth of no deal? Ultimately, there always will be a deal, in time. We need to stop no deal being seen as 'Boom. The End.'

Yes, I think that's the message that needs to be hammered home. No deal is a myth. There is no such thing as no deal. No deal is only the beginning.

The problem is that the words don't work. "No deal" "Clean break Brexit" - makes you feel like that's an end to the whole sorry mess. "Extension" "Transition" - make you feel like it's continuing. We need words that turn those feelings on their head, e.g. "Beggars on the doorstep" vs. "Getting it right takes time."

ListeningQuietly · 05/09/2019 20:32

Choma
Referendums are - pretty much by definition - a choice between two options
hence why they are so dangerous

CrunchyCarrot · 05/09/2019 20:34

Of course a lot of them are going to struggle to ask their MP, given they've been forced out of the party by Boris Johnson.

Haha yep that might be a teensy problem he hasn't taken account of!

@Basilpots yes it's quite frightful the amount of porkies!

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 20:34

I think there's a huge assumption that a PV would return remain.

I don;t assume remain would win. I hope but I don't assume. I object to having what is the outline of a very hard brexit, which everybody hated - remainers and leavers alike, foisted on us over three years after the ref, when parliament has voted it down three times because it is so awful and well after the date we were supposed to brexit.

If people want the W.A let them vote for it! But don't do it in a GE where it will get conflated with other issues.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 20:35

Thanks, Red. 💐

Outsomnia · 05/09/2019 20:36

A WA will guarantee free movement of goods, services and people for a while. It will preserve the GFA too.

UK needs to get its act together. I think it is what they want really despite the bluff and bluster. A bit of breathing space.

Leaving with No Deal is at the most awful end of the spectrum. There are other choices. And they know it.

Oakenbeach · 05/09/2019 20:37

Breaking the WA is not on the list of serious possibilities

If the WA is passed, BJ won’t be around to mess with the implementation....

TheMShip · 05/09/2019 20:38

Understood that whether we go hard or soft ANY deal with the EU requires the WA which is not what politicians say or seem to understand.

This is something that I have found incredibly frustrating - the EU has said this clearly, publicly, and multiple times, but very few in the UK seem to take it in. The PV was always the part of the deal that I didn't like; that's what made it a hard Brexit. The WA itself is fine - the UK should a) pay its bills, b) keep the Irish border open, and c) guarantee the rights of EU citizens. The NI vs all-UK backstop is really the only choice to be made within that framework.

prettybird · 05/09/2019 20:39

I commented to dh watching that press conference that none of the police behind him were smiling or showing, even just slightly, agreement with what he was saying. No slight nod of the head. No positive body language. Just the one woman almost being sick and needing to sit down. Hmm

And although he turned to her and asked if she was ok at the time, he didn't, just a few minutes later, turn to check on her as he was leaving.

CrunchyCarrot · 05/09/2019 20:40

This is priceless! The new hashtag #PleaseLeaveMyTown, Johnson shaking hands with a local resident who simply says: 'Please leave my town' Grin

twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1169664123745054727

chomalungma · 05/09/2019 20:41

I think the WA would pass again.

There are some who object to the Backstop but it's disingenious (to use Parliamentary language) to suggest that was the reason it didn't get through Parliament.

The backstop is only a problem for some MPs. Not everyone who voted against it.

Has any journalist actually asked Boris Johnson that - and followed it up?

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 20:42

The problem with a PV was that there's never been a set united view on what the question should even be.

Should it be a rerun?

Should it be about possible options?

Would it include remain?

Would it include no deal? And if it did, how does that work with needing a deal anyway after we've actually left?

Would it reference possible extensions should we need them?

That's always been something of a problem for me with a PV.

You might have problems and outrage just setting the question, leading to a boycott and then subsequent concern or challenges to its legitimacy.

It's always been presented as a magic bullet.

It isn't. Far from it. It could well make the situation worse not better.

And that's without thinking about the divisiveness of the actual campaigning.

I'm far more simple remain than PV. And I'm more WA than remain at this point.

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Oakenbeach · 05/09/2019 20:42

If people want the W.A let them vote for it! But don't do it in a GE where it will get conflated with other issues.

Most people, whether they voted Remain or Leave would be content enough with a WA.... 80%+ votes for parties promising such a thing at the 2017 election. Only the fringes (I’m thinking 10-15% on either side) would find it unacceptable. The vast majority do just want Brexit to be done with... the WA is the least worst way of doing it. A GE after would determine how our post-Brexit world. Let our parliamentarians do their job and decide this.... A PV will only heap division on division and risk permanently fracturing our democratic structures.

Songsofexperience · 05/09/2019 20:43

Lots of DGR suggestions have been North Korea esque. That is our direction of travel.

Many decent people will push back though.

falcon5 · 05/09/2019 20:44

Bloody hell has anyone seen Boris Johnson's Twitter video to the public.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 20:44

Oh and even now, politicians haven't really addressed the idea of the purpose of the backstop and why and how it's needed. Its just spoken of as a 'bad thing' rather than having any sort of context or understanding of it.

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Basilpots · 05/09/2019 20:46

@falcon5 Trumpesque.

prettybird · 05/09/2019 20:46

The Beveridge Report was published as a White Paper by the cross-party coalition in 1942. I think the foundation of the Welfare State is pretty political Wink

It could be argued that the Conservatives lack of support for its proposals led to their trouncing losing in 1945.

Oakenbeach · 05/09/2019 20:47

I think the WA would pass again.

I think it would probably do so too... though we will probably need the next month til Parliament returns (assuming it does) to get to that point. I know most Labour MPs have voted against it in the past but their opposition last time was mainly a result of fear that its implementation would
be delivered by a post-May Government. This time they’d do so knowing it would make BJs position untenable and fracture the right.

FusionChefGeoff · 05/09/2019 20:48

I hate the idea that we will have a government for the next five years solely based on their attitude to the next 2 months of Brexit strategy.

It's like gin rummy when you pick up a pile of shite to get the one card you really need.

borntobequiet · 05/09/2019 20:49

The Withdrawal Agreement as negotiated by TM is the only thing that will protect us in the short/medium term. Whether by accident or design, it’s now a possibility that I hope our parliamentarians will recognise and support. I wish they had done so earlier.
I was surprised yesterday when my Corbynista colleague expressed qualified admiration for TM for walking a very difficult tightrope for so long, given her successor fell off so spectacularly within days.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 20:50

Second half of James Patricks thread

James Patrick @j_ames
The message is simple: law and order is Boris’s bag and he’d rather die than drop Brexit. Subtext, he’s angry and stressed because the opposition and remainers are trying to prorogue the will of the people in a real coup while he tries to get on with making Britain great again.

For these reasons, while everyone fixates on the poison tree which is Twitter point scoring, this will trickle into the minds of the majority of the electorate who will feel that Parliament is cheating them and who will turn out to vote for him.

So no, dismissing him won’t help you. Insulting him won’t help you.

Accepting the words of the pseudo-celebrities doing the same won’t help you. It will only facilitate his win.

Take off the shortsighted glasses and start to look beyond your safe little bubbles. Or lose more.

Absolutely.

I am very worried.

I have moments of glee as it looks like Johnson is having a bad day, but I have to check myself as i also know that it's part of the performance and its working for him where it matters. He is winning and no one is even noticing.

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chomalungma · 05/09/2019 20:51

A lot of Conservative MPs voted for the WA. It would be strange if they didn't vote for something they have voted for several times.

I did see some of the passionate speeches in Parliament about why some Labour and Lib Dems didn't vote for it - making the UK poorer, lack of a Customs Union.

Then the Conservatives who said it would make us a vassal state, leave us subservient to the EU.

Things have changed since then.

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