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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 20:11

Riots would just give the excuse to invoke Emergency Powers:
(and damn Blair for being such an irresponsible fool to give them the perfect tools)

  • send armed troops onto the streets

  • stop any peaceful demonstrations by opponents

  • censor the media

... I'm sure red & DG will think of more

Oakenbeach · 05/09/2019 20:12

Remainers say they would reluctantly settle for W.A now - but if they knew that once the W.A was passed Boris would get his hard right majority, the backstop would become NI only and the rest of us would get sold off to America piecemeal and we would ultimately end up in no better place than if we no dealed, would they still?

Passing the WA is the best way to stop that happening. The Tory implosion that would result from the WA being brought back would make the current problems look like a tea party. It would be their death knell....

BJ would be in an impossible position....

If he supported the WA, and be castigated as a traitor by 30+ Brexit die-hards and most of the membership.

Refuse to support the WA, most of the parliamentary party rebels (even Gove said he would support the WA if it were brought back earlier today) and he’s isolated with the hardliners

Either way, the party is screwed and would be annihilated at the polls.

TheMShip · 05/09/2019 20:14

Impeachment is real. Obsolete, but was never legislated against. There have been so many bloody weird things with Brexit that even dredging something like this up from the mists of time (though JRM might approve, it was still used in the Georgian era) wouldn't surprise me.
researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7612

The 1967 Select Committee on Parliamentary Privilege listed impeachment as being among the existing privileges of the House in its corporate capacity. The committee recommended that the right to impeach should be formally abandoned via legislation. No such legislation was introduced. The recommendation was repeated in the third report from the Committee on Privileges in 1976-77. More recently the Joint Committee on Parliamentary Privilege Report stated, in 1999, that ‘the circumstances in which impeachment has taken place are now so remote from the present that that the procedure may be considered obsolete.’

Impeachment operated in an era when Parliament and the courts had very limited oversight of government power. Different mechanisms have developed in modern politics to allow for the scrutiny of the executive. These include parliamentary questions, inquiries by select committees and independent committees of inquiry. The growth of the doctrine of collective cabinet responsibility, and the use of confidence motions have both contributed to the disuse of impeachments in modern times. Judicial review also now provides an effective check on the legality of the actions of public officials and government ministers. The impeachment process, last attempted in 1806, has not been revised to reflect the fundamental changes that have occurred in Parliament.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 20:14

pretzels The WA - unlike the GFA - has severe penalties for breaking them
We can't cope with them; they would be ruinous

That's why the hard Brexiters like the ERG - and posters like howabout - are so desperate to trash it

Breaking the WA is not on the list of serious possibilities

TheMShip · 05/09/2019 20:16

More recently, there was an attempt to impeach Blair in 2004 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_motion_to_impeach_Tony_Blair, and the motion was ruled in order by the Speaker. It was never debated.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 20:16

Unless we go full North Korea

ListeningQuietly · 05/09/2019 20:16

Plaice Marque

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 20:17

Thanks, Mship I'd totally forgotten that attempt to impeach Blair

tobee · 05/09/2019 20:17

It's worth doing that Daily Express poll about rebel Tories if only to get your quotient slap in the face with a cold dead fish on how loads of people think. Have a hollow laugh ready! Confused

pumkinspicetime · 05/09/2019 20:19

NPR is covering Brexit now.
They see today as the kick off of his election campaign.
They're talking about brother resigning and dead in a ditch comment.
Brexit and personal ambition being highlighted.
He is being called out for throwing out 21 moderates, Nicholas Soames and Ken Clarke discussed individually.
The fact that he needs a broader tent in his next election campaign and this won't get him one was raised.

Outsomnia · 05/09/2019 20:19

It is just an awful pity that no one in charge just bites the bullet and says it is either WA or Revoke now, because it is impossible to do anything else without destroying the country in more ways than one.

Can you see the mayhem in Parliament? But it has been mayhem from day one anyway, so what would be new?

The whole world is looking at UK now in wonder. The mother of parliaments is right.

Glad that EU/ ROI are remaining silent. No need to disturb things when your opponents are doing it for you.

Belindabelle · 05/09/2019 20:19

Remember during the leadership elections when Johnson said his favourite hobby was to make cardboard models of buses. Then when you googled ‘ BJ and bus’ that is what came up first in the search instead of the bus with the 350 million a week on the side.

Everything he does is orchestrated just like most other politicians.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 20:19

Text of John Major's speech today to CBI

Biting

http://www.johnmajorarchive.org.uk/2015-2/speech-at-cbi-annual-dinner-5-september-2019/

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 20:20

Breaking the WA is not on the list of serious possibilities

And we're back to Nick Cohen.

Boris does not care about what happens to the people as a result of his actions.
Boris does not care what happens to the country.
Boris does not care about the rule of law.
Boris does not care about democratic convention.

Unless the EU would knock on No 10 and arrest him for breaking the W.A ... Boris does not care. And neither do his cronies in govt or his supporters.

TheMShip · 05/09/2019 20:21

BCF I didn't move to the UK till 2006, so I missed a lot of the Blair years. There certainly seem to be a lot of unintended consequences from that time, e.g. the Civil Contingencies Act.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 20:22

Groucho Marx :

“The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing.
…If you can fake that, you've got it made.”

CrunchyCarrot · 05/09/2019 20:22

A short video has been posted by Johnson on his Twitter, this is what he says in case you can't view it.

twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1169681044573962240

'Hi folks, a lot has happened this week and I wanted to update you. I've been negotiating over the past five weeks to get us a new deal. EU leaders were willing to negotiate because they knew we are going to leave on october 31st, deal or no deal. Last night, Jeremy Corbyn and others voted to wreck the chance of a deal. Their new law tries to force the government to go to Brussels, beg for another delay until 2020 or as long as Brussels demands. People don't want another pointless delay but this law is even worse. Brussels could demand that I hand over billions of your money in return for this pointless delay. I refuse to do this. My view is that, if Parliament tries to force another pointless delay, and I refuse to do that, then voters should decide what happens next. People can choose Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister, go to Brussels on october 17th to delay Brexit again and do what Brussels wants. or people can choose me to go to Brussels on 17 october, try to negotiate a new deal and I'm confident that I can, but to leave on 31st october in all circumstances so that the country can move on. Last night Jeremy Corbyn voted to stop you, the public, deciding this. He has now voted to destroy the negotiations, to delay again for no reason and to stop you deciding whether we delay or not. It seems to me he doesn't trust you to make this decision. I do trust you. It would be totally wrong for Parliament to force another pointless delay without your agreement. So if you want Brexit sorted out before 31 october then please ask your MP to vote on Monday so that you can have your say on who goes to Brussels to sort this out - me or Jeremy Corbyn. Thank you."

Sorry I can't put capital 'o' letters, my keyboard won't type them after a juice spill a couple of years ago!

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 20:23

pretzels When we have No Deal, I'll remind you of our conversations

Wait, when YOU have No Deal - I'm staying far away from the UK

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 20:25

Unless we go full North Korea

I genuinely don't think either Boris or Farage would have a problem with that.
I don't think they're supporters would.
We are not in normal times - and these are not normal politicians. And assuming they will act within bounds of normality is just going to backfire on those that trusted them because 'they wouldn't do that.'

Lots of DGR suggestions have been North Korea esque. That is our direction of travel.

Oakenbeach · 05/09/2019 20:26

The W.A protects us from the initial shock of no deal - but it doesn't save us from the ultimate destruction of rights, living and working conditions, quality of life, life expectancy and our entire welfare state - or from the job losses, price rises and tax increases. It's just a bit slower. And you agreed to it.

Few really like the WA, but it’s our best hope. The alternatives are no-deal, or a PV that drags things out and will probably solve nothing - another close vote that doesn’t really settle matters either way... However much Remain voters like myself wish they’d been a decisive movement in views since the referendum there hasn’t been... Remain may have the edge in polls, but they did before the referendum! Brexit paralysis continues and our country cannot move forward.

As for the destruction of our rights and living conditions etc, these are in our gift as a UK... There’s no reason why a plurality of people can’t vote in a Government that provides this.... and if they don’t vote in a Government that provides the rights and protections you’d like, well, that’s democracy!

Yes, there’ll be a economic price attached to the WA, but a no-deal would be far worse, and the likely paralysis and uncertainty leading and following a PV would likely be pretty appalling too.

chomalungma · 05/09/2019 20:26

Of course a lot of them are going to struggle to ask their MP, given they've been forced out of the party by Boris Johnson.

Something he forgot to mention.

ClashCityRocker · 05/09/2019 20:27

I think there's a huge assumption that a PV would return remain.

That is very far from a given.

I know the plural of anecdotes isn't data, but the goings on in the last few days have been a hot topic of conversation. In a lot of my circles, Boris is not coming off badly, but as a man fighting against the odds and getting stymied at every turn.

And, whilst we may think they must be bloody mad, their vote will count just the same as yours or mine.

You don't get bonus points for reading up, or understanding the minutae of what is going on in parliament. There's whole swathes of the population who (at this time) don't give that much of a shit either way. Of course they will, when food and medicine shortages hit, but that will be too late.

The fact is until there is some cohesion on an alternative, Johnson will remain in power, even with a GE. There needs to be a simple message that people can get behind. Maybe busting the myth of no deal? Ultimately, there always will be a deal, in time. We need to stop no deal being seen as 'Boom. The End.'

chomalungma · 05/09/2019 20:29

I'm up for a vote with a range of options - with a preference.

From total No Deal through to Remain...

with options such as a Customs Union on there as well.

I hate this binary thinking.

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 20:29

Remind away BCF I've been expecting and preparing for no deal since last summer. I know it will be shit. I just don't believe that long term the W.A would be any better. Nor do I believe it will save a significant number of lives. And if we must dive headfirst into decades of shit, I'd rather doing it knowing I never personally capitulated and agreed to it.

You may not understand that I understand my position and my principles perfectly - but I do. I also understand yours. I just disagree with you.

Basilpots · 05/09/2019 20:30

@CrunchyCarrot So many lies !!!