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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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Peregrina · 05/09/2019 19:46

The protests across the UK are pretty unprecedented.

Quite, and we have to keep on, like the protests which brought Communism down.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 19:46

They didn't, OYBBK - it was sprung on the cadets & they're angry.

TheMShip · 05/09/2019 19:46

Apile - please bear in mind that I am wired on Brew tonight, so these are all pretty shit, but I'm trying to get across the idea that no deal Brexit is just the start:

There's no such thing as a clean break Brexit.

Would you make a favourable deal with someone who told you to fuck off and walked away?

It takes two to tango - can't dance with a partner who's only shouting at you from across the room.

ListeningQuietly · 05/09/2019 19:47

Slightly sideways, but have a look at this video and compare the top ten for the period when the UK joined the EU and the top ten now

proof if proof were needed that the world is different now
Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 19:48

With respect red I disagree.

Of course they want to wear us down. And when they wear us down - they get what they want. There are extreme people in charge right now who have gone and will go to extreme lengths. We are not in a liberal democracy anymore and acting as if we are in one, whilst those in power destroy everything, is dangerous and foolish. Not understanding what was actually going on is why remain lost in the first place - and we are far further down the rabbit hole now.

Believe in Liberal democracy - but don't stick to its rules when you're not in one.

I;m afraid I think woman was far closer to the mark in her analysis.

dontcallmelen · 05/09/2019 19:49

Cat I sincerely hope you are right, I’m just scared & frightened.
I saw last night that the chancellor has allocated money towards the homelessness crisis, I worked for over thirty years in the homeless sector, when labour came into power in 1997 we had so many new initiatives set up, some brilliant resources borough wide joined up support, it’s was amazing what were able to achieve, then it was all torn apart bit bit by cuts/austerity & for what, people suffering/dying & now those fuckers decide oops maybe we need to allocate a few quid.
Makes my heart bleed, I’m so fucking angry & I don’t know what to do about it.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 19:50

Well, you know, Red, I'm old enough to have been in the Poll Tax Riot - along with all the unrest beforehand - and, personally, I think Johnson is closer to having a Poll Tax Riot- style situation on his hands than the relatively easy ride Trump is having.

The thing about the US is that it is so large. You can live on the coasts in the US and be (relatively) unscathed by Trump. State laws break up the universal effect.

But in the UK?

I don't know ...

Basilpots · 05/09/2019 19:50

Johnson doesn’t need that many voters.

He just needs people to not vote Labour or switch to the BXP in certain constituencies.

Trump received fewer votes than Hilary but got them in the right areas.

I worry Corbyn could be Hilary.

Apileofballyhoo · 05/09/2019 19:51

The W.A protects us from the initial shock of no deal - but it doesn't save us from the ultimate destruction of rights, living and working conditions, quality of life, life expectancy and our entire welfare state - or from the job losses, price rises and tax increases. It's just a bit slower. And you agreed to it.

Being a member of the EU won't save the NHS either which way. Or the welfare state. They're gone down the toilet anyway and people still voted Tory. The trouble with the UK is that, just like Brexit, people want to have their cake and eat it too. People want the NHS but don't want to vote Labour, people want good state schools but don't want to vote Labour, and so on. You get what you vote for. I do realise that some people vote Tory because they just don't care about the NHS or state funded education, but there are people who claim they do, and still vote Tory. Maybe other people just don't link it up in their minds, I don't know.

bellinisurge · 05/09/2019 19:51

As much as I despise Corbyn and swore never to vote for him, I would vote for him to keep the Brexit Party out of my Tommy Robinson loving constituency.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 19:53

I agree with red that we lost in the first few months after the ref

That cowardly bastard Cameron could have said the ref was too close / investigate psyops / gone for Norway++
but he ran away from what he had done and squandered the only real chance of avoiding this shitshow

May never had his authority
and took too long to understand the EU issues that Cameron had been dealing with

imo we finally lost it when Trump won the Presidency
I'm fairly sure that President Clinton would have guarded Ni and stopped Brexit

Don't underestimate how much aid & comfort POTUS Trump brought, from right after his win

Outsomnia · 05/09/2019 19:57

Just dropping by, have been watching the thread for ages though without time or means to post. Thanks everyone.

At this stage the best thing is for UK to leave with WA with an admin/transition period under A50. (that I am sure could be extended ad infinitum).

I say this as the most solid Remainer you could find, but I am sure there are many others also.

The UK needs to go, the EU 27 do not need such a country in their midst anymore, it will never work now. They will be constantly sniping or whatever. Ugh.

But go with WA. I think I could live with that if medicines and jobs and supplies, and NI border, EU workers in UK were sorted.

It is so sad for me to say that, but the best of a bad lot is necessary now. NO DEAL is not going to work. Ever.

Am I totally delusional now? I often worry about it sometimes.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 19:58

James Patrick @j_ames
You couldn’t stage manage an election visual any better than this. Target resonance close to 100%

And if you set the media portrayals alongside each other, it’s the one on the right which will embed with the electorate, exactly as intended, while the one on the left will just make sure the right sound bite sinks in:

And, quite wonderfully, “dead in a ditch” also makes a wonderful hashtag to make sure that image and the key message advertised across the whole digital space for free, aided and abetted by those allegedly opposed to him. Hate creates more heroes than worship.

This is how the media are adding and abetting Johnson (often unwittingly).

They have all focused on how awful his speech was, forgetting its gone in one ear and out the other of all but the most interested or hasn't gone in a all as target audience isn't remotely interested.

A picture tell the story of 10,000 words.

Honestly the media should be all over these type of messages and stunts and ask questions about what they are publishing.

Utterly depressing.

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
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Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 20:01

I think I could live with that if medicines and jobs and supplies, and NI border, EU workers in UK were sorted.

And if they weren't - because Boris gets his majority and he isn't going to stand by former agreements he didn't sign up to?
What then?

Signing the W.A before a G.E is very dangerous.

TheMShip · 05/09/2019 20:03

Peston reckons BJ has only two choices after today if he doesn't get the early GE he wants: resign (he thinks v unlikely given BJ's ultimate goal is to hold onto power) or flout the extension law, forcing MPs to impeach him.

www.itv.com/news/2019-09-05/will-boris-johnson-goad-mps-to-impeach-him-by-refusing-to-ask-eu-for-brexit-delay/

Impeachment? In the UK? I have never heard of this, is it even possible?

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 20:04

personally, I think Johnson is closer to having a Poll Tax Riot- style situation on his hands than the relatively easy ride Trump is having.

Not until we have shortages.

That could be a few weeks away or after no deal. Which could be too late ultimately is certain decisions come to pass.

I'm clearly hearing and seeing a very different thing to other posters here re Johnson and the Tories.

That bothers me.

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BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 20:05

Too many people believe that what they want to happen will happen

Just as true for Remainers
As red says, look at the optics that Brexiters will see, not the bungling

Reversing a ref when opinion has changed so little would probably hand the country to the far right

However, as that requires a Corbyn win, we probably won't get that far:
So it'll probably be a Tory win and No Deal, handing the country to the hard right for 5 years ... and probably the next 5 years too
Even a hung Parliament - after the purges of rebels & Speakers - probably means noone can stop No Deal,

FPTP is so dangerous in this situation of a crashing economy, blaming the EU, Trump ranting away, angry voters:

Not just that the Tories can win a majority on around 32%
But that the seat curve for Farage with his vote distribution looks exponential:
above 25% he starts to get real power in the HoC
and then only a few % more and he can get 400+ seats

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 20:06

pretzels The WA is an international treaty
BJ can't break the terms

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 20:06

We don't have impeachment.

I've said for a while i expect Johnson to break the law.

MPs and the courts lack the will and ability, like the Democrats to take him on if he does.

He's learnt from Trump.

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BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 20:07

The problem is that the laws he might break seem to have no significant penalty, if any at all

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 20:08

BCF You have said many time yourself that any country is able to break the terms of an international treaty - if they don't mind the consequences. Spoiler alert - he doesn't.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 20:09

The WA is an international treaty. BJ can't break the terms

I'm going to pose the question nick Cohen did today

Why not?

He could.

Then what?

Trump's been getting away with similar.

It might hurt the country but Johnson doesn't really care about that as long as he's PM.

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thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 20:09

I find it odd this thread is so pro-WA when polls suggest 'Remsain' is polling at 56%.

A long extension and then a PV on WA or whatever is likely to a. Return Remain or b. Settle the issue.

Johnson's strategy was always to threaten the UK and his recalcitrant MPs with No Desl and then bring back the WA.

I suspect his cunning plan is unravelling and he's resorting to tactics, rather than a fearsomely brilliant strategy.

And it's s mess.

I'd be quite suspicious of feeling there is no possibility of extension for a PV.

And, remember, for a long time people thought May had a cunning plan. She didn't.

Brexit is a shit idea. Whoever enacts it is going to be fucked.

No-one likes the idea of a PV - but the one thing it has going for it is that it offers a way out that doesn't destroy the Party carrying it out.

Johnson thought he'd seen a way to get some resolution, without blame (forced WA) and it's becoming clear it's not happening.

I suspect extension and a PV is what is going to happen. Not with Johnson in position - but it's hard to see how he can cling on.

Yes, he can break the law - but 🤷‍♀️ Cummings is only contracted until Oct 31 - so he's not there to carry the can for much longer.

Dictators meet bloody ends. Johnson knows that snd I'm sure he at least wants to keep the veneer of respectability.

And, if he doesn't, then, yes, woman is right: it's time to get on the streets. The WA won't stop a coup.

TheElementsSong · 05/09/2019 20:09

look at the optics that Brexiters will see

Exactly this - surely we've noticed by now that it's all about the empty slogan-spritzing, the animated-GIF-length attention spans, the photo-op with 2-word caption?

Laska2Meryls · 05/09/2019 20:09

Well I have never been a Tory, (and never will be ) But I have to take my hat off to John Major after his speech at the CBI dinner this evening

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