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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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bellinisurge · 05/09/2019 19:10

I agree @RedToothBrush . There's a "oh what now" element to his behaviour and actions which is straight out of Trump 's playbook

TheElementsSong · 05/09/2019 19:12

Methinks the BBC Documentary division is trolling their Brexitatious News division again. The DC are watching an old (2015) programme about the manufacture of cars, and a major message is the vital importance of JIT delivery of components.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 19:16

cat It's firstly about avoiding No Deal, then worry about the GE

Or is fuck the country, we want to be elected ?

As we see on these threads, many Remainers would reluctantly settle for the WA

If Opposition parties let No Deal happen, through refusal to compromise, then Remainers would have suffered the worst possible defeat
Brexiters would be gleefully rubbing Remainer noses in it
and demoralised Remainer members - and voters - would stay home

After No Deal, what's the fucking point ?
Everybody young / with skills should just try to emigrate

CrunchyCarrot · 05/09/2019 19:18

Ugh seen some really unpleasant stuff in my FB feed from Brexiteers trashing Corbyn, Remainers, Parliament, etc. They think Johnson is wonderful. When will the light ever dawn?

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 19:18

i worry about that, too, Red.

However, I think the numbers stack up differently here. And people seem a lot angrier. And I don't think he has the same 'Rust Belt' support - partly because Labour are better than the Democrats at representing working people, and partly because of the absence of the same identity rather than class politics.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 19:24

Anyone notice anything?

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
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thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 19:25

I hear what you're saying, BigChoc but ...

Getting a long extension and putting WA to people versus Remain might just be do-able with the base. It's not the manifesto - but you could just about do it.

The WA on its own?

Not even the members would vote for them.

There's a lot of support on this thread for WA but I think Labour voters are now mostly Remain.

🤷‍♀️

At some point, Labour will have to fave s GE and no way will they face a GE having pissed of thrir voters.

That will leave us with disaster capitalists negotiating the terms of a final deal with the EU - yikes!

MarshaBradyo · 05/09/2019 19:25

Bit surly in the first

That double bank looks so ominous

ListeningQuietly · 05/09/2019 19:26

Pressy for everybody to play with and share
www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1174321/Brexit-news-boris-johnson-sack-tory-rebels-no-deal-brexit-by-election-poll

Apileofballyhoo · 05/09/2019 19:26

BigChocFrenzy

Can you think of a simple message moderates and centrists can push to counteract the hard right?

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 19:28

pretzels I just want to stop No Deal and the disaster it would bring
I no longer give a fuck about a PV or Remain

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 19:31

Remainers say they would reluctantly settle for W.A now - but if they knew that once the W.A was passed Boris would get his hard right majority, the backstop would become NI only and the rest of us would get sold off to America piecemeal and we would ultimately end up in no better place than if we no dealed, would they still?. All the people who would die because of no deal will still die once the NHS has been dismantled and they can't afford the insurance or the medication.

They have been worn down. That has been the purpose of all of this - to wear the protesters down to accept utter shit so the disaster capitalists end up getting what they wanted all along.

I'm sorry to quote the manic street preachers at everyone but if you tolerate this then you're children will be next

Everyone has been made so afraid of no deal that they are losing sight as to what Boris and co will do to us in their 5 year reign once we're outside the EU.
The W.A - under Boris - does not offer us anything better long term than no deal does - as Gove himself today admitted, no deal is not a permanent state. The W.A protects us from the initial shock of no deal - but it doesn't save us from the ultimate destruction of rights, living and working conditions, quality of life, life expectancy and our entire welfare state - or from the job losses, price rises and tax increases. It's just a bit slower. And you agreed to it.

Anyone who thinks that the W.A should be signed before a GE is taking no less of a gamble than anyone who doesn't. Look at what Boris has done in the past week - the conventions he's ripped up. The W.A will not protect you if he gets his majority.

And labour do need to think about that. Voting it through is not for the good of the nation if they then lose the election because they betrayed their remainer voters.

ListeningQuietly · 05/09/2019 19:32

Ballyhoo
Sadly Blue collar Tories do not like to admit that the super rich regard them as dirt on their shoes.

Its about asking whether folks like Trump and JRM and Bozo are looking out for themselves
or for people they actively avoid in their private lives

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 19:32

I no longer give a fuck about a PV or Remain

And that's exactly what they wanted. They have won.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 19:33

I know, BigChoc.

Like I said, I've kind of given up getting too bound to any position. I've started thinking primarily in terms of protecting self and family. 🤷‍♀️

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 19:33

However, I think the numbers stack up differently here. And people seem a lot angrier. And I don't think he has the same 'Rust Belt' support - partly because Labour are better than the Democrats at representing working people, and partly because of the absence of the same identity rather than class politics.

Not sure I'd agree with that tbh.

Depends on where you are in the country.

I do think the resonance is in the rust belt, but there is still the spectre of Mrs T in some of those communities - the trouble being people who are younger and into celebrity lifestyle aren't old enough to remember her, don't care about politics but could still name Johnson but no one else.

They don't care about his crap speech.

He is part of the hateful Tory government though that brought austerity - which could still be an issue.

BUT this is why Johnson is delighted to boot Hammond who is now fall guy for that and Corbyn is costing up to him...

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Peregrina · 05/09/2019 19:35

The GNU during WW2 was constituted to only get Britain through the war, and didn't make any political decisions outside of that.

Are you sure? A major piece of legislation in the 1944 Education act was passed. I suppose whether that counts as Political is moot, but of itself it wasn't necessary to get us through the war - it was more the forerunner of post war reforms.

He doesn't have Churchill's advantage of a war which united the whole country - and which still wasn't enough to get him elected in 1945

Don't forget, we elect individual MPs. Who knows whether Churchill would have been elected if we had a presidential style of Parliamentary leader?

dontcallmelen · 05/09/2019 19:36

BCF I feel the same, I can’t see a way out of it all this playing with numbers & second guessing of who would vote for whom/what etc etc know way would the simple message of what a disaster & how so many who oppose a deal stand to make billions/millions will come across in a way that makes people who ‘just want it over’ take stock & think, sorry for being so pessimistic but I can’t phantom a way out of that causes the least harm.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 19:36

To be absolutely fair, there really is still hope ...

The UK has seen sterling slump and investment flee. WA won't make it come back, or No Deal Brexit. It's s big deal to turn a country into an island for disaster capitalists. It excludes a lot of (currently) powerful people and thoroughly impoverished many.

I'm not sure that message isn't sinking in.

The protests across the UK are pretty unprecedented.

But ... politically, we sure are stuck.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 19:40

And that's exactly what they wanted. They have won

If that's your take on the last 3 year years you really have not learnt a thing.

It's not about winning or losing.

That language is the language of extremes and how and why we are in this mess.

The purpose of Liberal democracy is to balance the needs and beliefs of the population in the best interests of the country as a whole.

Brexit is both an economic and social issue - leaving will hurt economically but socially its an issue too and I think this is overlooked by Remainers too much.

The time for winning and losing was in the 2 months after the ref tops. By October that had gone.

On a personal level I'd like to remain. Im more pro European than most at heart I suspect. But...

I believe in Liberal democracy more and unless we understand the notion of winning and losing is one which is a fundamental danger to that, we may as well just all go and vote Brexit Party ourselves anyway.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 05/09/2019 19:42

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3677475-Protests-against-the-Prorogation-of-Parliament updated list for Saturday here.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 19:44

BTW re Johnsons car crash today. It doesn't matter when he has photos like this

He could have gone out there and sang I'm a little tea pot, as long as he got that picture.

That's the message which will convey with his targets

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
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OhYouBadBadKitten · 05/09/2019 19:44

I agree with you pretzels WA is just a softer landing into hell.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 19:45

ballyhoo As long as the centre & left are seen as trying to reverse the 2016 referendum, it is a gift to the hard right
It infuriates even moderate Leavers

To justify reversing a ref, we needed a big swing in public opinion to 60%+ Remain
That has not happened

Passing the WA might be enough to let us move on; imo the least bad option wrt combatting the hard right
Revoke won't

Even if Corbyn won and Remain squeezed a victory in a PV that excluded No Deal,
Leavers would regard that as a stitch-up and move en masse to the hard right and far right
Farage would probably be PM at the next GE and take us out anyway

However, betting on a Corbyn win means No Deal is probable
During a 5-year hard right govt, the Tories might well be able to reduce Labour to a small rump and remake the country in their image, as in the 1980s

We were never able to reverse what happened in the 1980s, because the voters don't want to.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 05/09/2019 19:45

How the hell did they get the police to agree to that stunt?