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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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tobee · 05/09/2019 18:34

I've got to the stage (possibly some time ago) where I'm not wrestling with myself about whether I want revoke/WA/PV while none of them are on the table for me to vote on. If any of them do come on the table, and I get a vote, I would decide then. So many things could change, in so many ways, so many times before then. Currently, I don't think I will be asked to vote on any of these things anyway. Just sayin'. Smile

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 18:35

red It was just relief that we may actually have an NI SoS who is vaguely competent
AND Shock may actually care about the people of NI

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 18:36

Damn. Tried to post the clip of the Wakefield chap asking Boris to please leave his town & Boris Johnson magnanimously saying he would, very soon but I can't get it to post.

Sorry. ☹️

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 18:36

"Boris Johnson has "abused" the police force's position"

Yep
I was wondering how this could be acceptable and whether the Police Fed might object
but so far just this PCC

MockersthefeMANist · 05/09/2019 18:37

So who covered game theory as a student?

We all thought it was bollocks. People act on imperfect information and vary in their responses to emotional appeals. In real life games, there is an agreed set of rules and an umpire of some sort. And life is complex with far to many variables to be described by GT, behaviourism or any other form of reductionism.

It looks like Cummings has the sort of monocausal engineering mind that you find in so many terrorist converts.

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 18:38

Kyle ammendment - that was it! Thanks Mship

BCF I'm trying to do the calculation on it and my numbers won't be 100% accurate but my thinking is 20-30 labour mps (who helped pass the bill on Monday - anyone who didn't doesn't count, they're clearly not necessary for a majority) don't want a P.V. For arguments sake we'll slide that up to the top end and say 30. And let's say all 21 tory rebels point blank refuse at P.V at this point in time (I don't know if that's true) ... that means the majority short is 51. The bill won by 28 - so we can knock just over half that off and still have a majority - which means they are 38 short of a majority.

Meanwhile 210 labour MPs don't like the W.A. All the Lib dems (is that 15 now?) plus the SNP (50+) Plaid too, probably, and Caroline Lucas and Change. That's a lot more who have to change their mind.

We're in deadlock because everyone is too scared to act - and entrenched in the position they think give them the most support. So the only way to shift those numbers out of deadlock is for them to start getting a message one way or the other from outside parliament. But moving everyone who is anti-W.A is a much bigger task because it requires much bigger numbers to shift. Even if you assume that everyone who voted for it last time will again (no means guaranteed -Boris for one) It lost by 58 - more than the number of anti-p.vers who helped get the Bill over the line on Monday. And even if you can shift all those people that way - you're still left with a shit sandwich no one actually wanted.

A P.V still gives leavers their chance to leave. It still gives the anti- no deal leavers their chance to leave with a deal. The W.A offers nothing but ruin for the remainers. It does not make sense for them to give in or for anyone to ask them to give in. If the people out here are going to shift the numbers by bolstering them with courage and seeing the way the land lies ... we should try and shift them the more democratic and numerically easier way.

This is all massively theoretical of course - I'm not suggesting any of this is likely to happen. Just that it could and furthermore is no more unlikely than the W.A passing ... so why push for the shit sandwich of the W.A?

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 18:38

The bma @thebma
@JacobReesMogg insult about Dr David Nicholl is disgraceful. @djnicholl has courage and experience to speak the truth about the disaster of a no-deal Brexit. He should be praised not attacked

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thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 18:40

Yes, tobee, me too.

I'm prepared to work against No Deal Brexit, I'm prepared to keep wishing for a PV and Revoke. I'm prepared to work for a Labour GE win.

But I'm pacing myself, emotionally, because at this point anything else is the route to s breakdown.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 18:40

Tory MP Nick Hurd standing down at GE

He's a junior minister for NI & London
(what a combination Hmm)

MockersthefeMANist · 05/09/2019 18:41

...Nick Hurd, son of Douglas, "Mr Whippy" to Spitting Image fans.

Basilpots · 05/09/2019 18:44

It was just relief that we may actually have an NI SoS who is vaguely competent
AND shock may actually care about the people of NI

Shame they didn’t let him do his job then.

Begs the question what else have they ‘missed’ or not consulted ministers on ?

It ludicrously irresponsible to suspend Parliament for five weeks whilst working towards what looks like a ‘no deal’ Brexit scrutiny at all levels is essential to make sure cock ups like this don’t happen.

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 18:47

I'm pretty sure it has been said that a P.V could be whipped out quite quickly - especially if they voted to allow to hold it quickly. And if all the leave legislation was already in place as per the Kyle ammendment. A matter of weeks rather than months.

Again not saying it will, not even saying it should - just that time isn't the factor it first appears if they put their minds to it.

OublietteBravo · 05/09/2019 18:48

Julian Smith (NI Secretary) was Theresa May’s chief whip. He’ll be used to being consulted on things. Which probably goes some way to explaining his current fury.

cherin · 05/09/2019 18:50

I’m seriously losing the plot here. Blimey, one can’t have a full day at work and suddenly all these things happen! This must be the only country where the government appears to crumble and the currency gains value, though. Tsk. That should say something.

Most of my colleagues don’t follow the saga because they’re Eu and know they have no say. If they do, they think about leaving. Many of the Brits really don’t talk about it at all. Either because they’re ashamed (knowing they’re surrounded by Europeans who fear now being unwelcome) or because they don’t follow. A few openly told me “I can’t understand it at all. I gave up. I just want it over”
I think the choice of “backstop” as a term was a colossal strategic mistake because it actually doesn’t make much sense in common language, if the press had used “insurance” it would be more understandable, after all an insurance is something more or less everyone heard of, or has at some point. The other issue is NI, I don’t think so many people know enough history (and some just don’t care, sadly)

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 18:51

"Meanwhile 210 labour MPs don't like the W.A."

pretzels A PV with Remain is anathema even to moderate Leavers like louise because they say it is just a rerun.
It won't be attempted

The WA is unknown

I repeat: Labour voting against the WA before was just party politics
We don't know if any except the few Scottish Labour MPs would oppose it now
Maybe many of them would, but that figure of 210 Labour MPs is meaningless

We might even have a lot of Tories joining in - even BJ can't sack 100 of them

Remember, any vote on the WA is likely to be 19-31 October, when everything else has failed and it is No Deal in a few days
Otherwise it won't happen

So if all other measures have failed, only those who prefer No Deal to the WA will vote against

fedup21 · 05/09/2019 18:52

It ludicrously irresponsible to suspend Parliament for five weeks whilst working towards what looks like a ‘no deal’ Brexit

Absolutely

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 18:55

UPDATE: West Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner Mark Burns-Williamson (Labour) tells me Boris Johnson has "abused" the police force's position & says the officers should not have been used in this way, for a "political speech about Brexit".

Maybe they could see if the NUM would back them ?

ListeningQuietly · 05/09/2019 18:56

A PV would be a bad thing
Remember that 2/3 of constituencies voted to leave.
There is no form of words on the ballot paper that would get a sane result once agreed.

The WA is poo, but as its the very start of a L-O-N-G process that might end up with a BINO after ten years fingers crossed
it should be approved
to prevent No Deal

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 18:59

A PV with Remain is anathema even to moderate Leavers like louise because they say it is just a rerun. It won't be attempted

It doesn't need to be. But if the required %age of votes can't be reached then remain is the default. Boo hoo if no deal and a WA get 52/48 if a 2/3rds majority is required.

There has to be an end to this madness. Which ultimately needs to be a reconciliation commission with power of thumbscrew.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 19:02

Begs the question what else have they ‘missed’ or not consulted ministers on ?

If you look at what's been done so far, the government is being all run out of No 10.

The lack of involvement of the NI office, sacking treasury staff without talking to the chancellor, telling the cabinet about prorogation rather than consulting them. That's ruling not leading a liberal democracy.

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Grinchly · 05/09/2019 19:04

So very shocked but shouldn't be, at Johnson's use of that police ceremony for party political purposes.

It looked awful too from my perspective, very junta like, but I'm not the demographic it's aimed at as RTB and others would remind us.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 19:05

BigChoc Labour voting against the WA isn't just party politics.

Most Labour members are strongly Remain (and some aren't).

Labour leadership would have some serious work to do to get its members on board with voting for the WA - work they haven't done because they haven't had to do it.

In the Euro elections members didn't turn up to canvass in their droves because of the current position. And they voted LibDem or Green in large numbers.

That's members.

Even Momentum is split on this.

If Labour whipped to pass the WA, without some serious preparatory work on the membership, those doors would go unknocked and those envelopes unstuffed in a lot of places.

If Conference happens this year - Big if - there is going to be more pressure on Labour to endorse a Remain position.

It will be quite something, in the face of that, to pass the WA.

Brexit is very, very complicated.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 19:06

My fear with all this, is its merely just the start of Trump administration before we get outrage fatigue.

For everyone who quits, they will be replaced at some point by a hard liner.

Johnson seeming like he's losing it, misses the point somewhat - he is still in control and he looks likely to either go down in a blaze of fire, no doubt breaking the law and destroying the country in the process or will come back fighting reinforce by a bunch of yes men and disaster capitalists who bought their way into government.

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BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 19:09

The complete farce of UK "proposals" to the EU

It's a fucking joke; it's BJ's cake again:
Cut out most of the WA articles and promise to think about the border later

Adam Fleming@adamfleming

Details have emerged of what David Frost asked for in Brussels yesterday after a briefing of EU27 diplomats by officials from the European Commission.

Negotiators believe it amounted to bits of the Withdrawal Agreement crossed out NOT concrete proposals. (1)

The UK wants the backstop radically reduced to include only the articles dealing with citizens rights, the single electricity market and the Common Travel Area.

UK wants removal of articles 6-10 and 12 and associated annexes. (2)

There would be general commitment to find operable solutions to the Irish border later, 🤦🏻‍♀️
with the details to be agreed by the EU/UK Joint Committee after Brexit.
(Along the lines of the PM's letter to Tusk.) (3)

The UK also wants references to the future relationship to be removed from the backstop,
which the EU thinks may nullify the Joint Instrument agreed in Strasbourg by Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker earlier this year. (4)

The UK made clear it wants a "best in class" Free Trade Agreement along the lines of the EU/Canada but minus any level playing field commitments and without the dispute resolution mechanism included in the Withdrawal Agreement.(5)

Words being used: "exasperating" and "disastrous."
More UK/EU meetings due tomorrow.
@MichelBarnier and @SteveBarclay to speak by phone. (6)

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 19:09

Remember, any vote on the WA is likely to be 19-31 October, when everything else has failed and it is No Deal in a few days

But what if everything else hasn't failed. We have no idea what will actually happen - from one minute to the next. We have no idea what they will manage/ scrape together/ pull out from behind the sofa.

But claiming that the W.A is the only way forward because nothing else has the numbers whilst admitting that the W.A might not have the numbers is just a baffling position for me. If that idea is not guaranteed to pass why is it so ludicrous or naive to float another idea - even if it might not pass? And why cling so desperately to this one idea not guaranteed to pass which is actually pretty terrible?