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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 18:11

pretzels They will go with whichever proposal has the most votes

From what I hear, the PV is toxic to at least 30+ MPs in Leave seats, so cannot possibly pass.

However, Labour opposition to the WA was just politics as usual
Apart from Hoey (ex) there are few Labour MPs who would totally refuse the backstop - Labour has few Scottish MPs left and it is about MP votes now

That's why 50:50

howabout · 05/09/2019 18:12

Faiza Shaheen
@faizashaheen
·
4h
Phillip Lee, Luciana Berger, Chuka Umunna- this defecting to Lib Dems from Conservatives & Change UK/ funny tinge/ independent a reminder that beyond Brexit & anti-Corbyn, Lib Dems stand for nothing. Would love to be a fly on the wall when they discuss their NHS or ed policy

Yep

prettybird · 05/09/2019 18:12

Typo in my post (although relevant for the cat themed PMKs Wink): I did of course mean "car crash", not "cat crash" [of an interview] Grin

.....but as, by all accounts, he doesn't like cats, perhaps appropriate Wink

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 18:13

Jesus!

The cadet-backed speech is bonkers!!!

Complete with fainting cadet.

Bless - I know not of her opinions but she los as though she can take no more of his crap waffling.

TheMShip · 05/09/2019 18:14

I thought the WA+PV amendment was that the WA only came into force if the PV confirmed it. Surely that sort of legislation is relatively normal?

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 18:17

The M-ship I genuinely didn't know that. Is that right?

Thank you, that really is new information I'd missed.

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 18:17

Ican't There won't be a PV with the WA.

Any PV on the WA would have to be before the WA.

That isn't what the bill was back before march. The plan was to have all the legislation passed first in a provisional way.

It's nothing to me - if by some miracle the numbers nudged and a P.V looked likely I'd be happy for them to pass it afterwards if that was the result. But that wasn't the plan back in the day. And if passing it first is the only way to get it over the line then so be it.

If the plan was W.A first P.V second (and it was!) back before March, it;s a nonsense to say it couldn't happen now.

TheMShip · 05/09/2019 18:18

I don't know if it's right, but it's the impression I had from the discussion around the Kyle amendment in the spring.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 18:20

Thank you, Pretzels and M-ship.

I genuinely had missed that.

As a complete aside, watching the cadet video, I am reminded again just how much BJ reminds me of my brother-in-law when he's being irritating.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 18:22

howabout If you claim to be equally cynical about Brexiters, then there is far more to look at in the investments of e.g. JRM or Redwood than in Grieve.
Totally different orders of magnitude in the expected gains after Brexit
And look into the Tory donors and the billions they would gain

Tory Brexiter MPs and donors betting against UK business to make windfall profits - disgusting Angry

The anti No Deal Alliance is only united against No Deal
On all non-Brexit issues, it would be party politics as usual

Personally, I respect the courage of those who give up their careers, especially given the horrific threats of violence by Brexiter thugs & fanatics against them
Doesn't mean I share their policies - in fact I despise many policies that rebels supported as Tories

I despise Swinson full stop.

I storngly disagree with hardline Remainers like Soubry who insist on a PV, but I greatly respect her courage in walking through the Brexiter thugs every day, until the police finally took control

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 18:23

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
A thought about proroguing Parliament - it will, per @DavidGauke today in Commons mean that no legislation is passed to provide for direct rule in Northern Ireland - which will be desperately needed in a 'no deal'.

Note that @JulianSmithUK the NI Sec of State agrees! /1

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
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TheMShip · 05/09/2019 18:23

ican I looked up the Kyle amendment, and found this:

So when Kyle and Wilson came up with their idea of an amendment under which May’s deal would be allowed to pass on condition it was put to a confirmatory vote of the people, Beckett saw it as a clever idea – and a way out. It is the same model as that used to bind the people of Northern Ireland and the Republic behind the Good Friday Agreement.

I'm fascinated that it was the same idea as the GFA, how relevant!

Apileofballyhoo · 05/09/2019 18:24

I don't get why you can't have a PV on how close the relationship is. The WA has to be signed anyway. The Lib Dems need to get real. The fastest chance of getting back in is a PV on staying in the SM with the 4 freedoms, it's a short step from there to rejoining.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 18:25

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
PS...2. If Direct Rules comes, will Ireland demand a 'say' (beyond their current consultative role) under under the Good Friday Agreement?

Has UK engaged on the prorogue question with @simoncoveney and the Irish Govt? @JulianSmithUK ducks the Q...but I have! /6

I interviewed the Tanaiste in May this year and asked him that very question - his answer below. It's clear that the Irish Govt will need some kind of dual role....that's a serious red line for Unionists. Hard to see Irish govt standing aside... /7

The more you start to think about 'no deal' for Northern Ireland - and for Ireland more broadly - the deeper the waters you get into.

The GFA is a delicate balance that allows both communities to live in parallel constitutional realities. No deal risks making them collide. ENDS

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
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ListeningQuietly · 05/09/2019 18:26

Cannot decide between Wine and Gin

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 18:26

pretzels There are not the votes to keep a GNU in power until a PV has happened
and no Parliament can bind its successors

So if BJ wins a GE, he can repeal any bill a precious Parliament passed.
So no PV or WA

However much you want to avoid it, passing the WA before a GE and Brexiting on those terms is the only certain way to avoid No Deal

All other plans require Corbyn to win a GE

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 18:27

Pippa Crerar@pippacrerar
Boris Johnson kept the police officers waiting so long that a poor copper standing behind him appears to have just passed out. "Are you alright?" he asks before carrying on.

I know it was a terrible speech & the police thing was not a good look, but think about how this looks from outside the bubble.

Boris Johnson is prepared to "die in a ditch" and risk his relationship with his own brother to deliver his Brexit promise. That will resonate.

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OublietteBravo · 05/09/2019 18:27

Is there anyone we'd agree on to be PM in a GNU?

Betty Boothroyd (former Speaker) is a Crossbench peer in the House of Lords.

TheMShip · 05/09/2019 18:27

Gin in a Brew plus Cake seems the only sane response these days Listening!

ListeningQuietly · 05/09/2019 18:28

I am now strongly against a PV
because most Brits (including my family) ^Just want Brexit over and done with.
So they will vote for whichever side makes the simplest promises
hint, its NOT the Remain side

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 18:28

That NI Sec of State learned his business a damn sight more quickly than Karen Bradley did !

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 18:30

Danny Shaw @dannyshawbbc
UPDATE: West Yorkshire Police & Crime Commissioner Mark Burns-Williamson (Labour) tells me Boris Johnson has "abused" the police force's position & says the officers should not have been used in this way, for a "political speech about Brexit".

Burns-Williamson says he wasn't consulted about the details of Boris Johnson visit & has contacted John Robins, @WestYorksPolice chief constable, for an explanation.

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RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 18:32

BCF you make that sound like it's a difficult thing to be better than Bradley

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thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 18:32

BigChocFrezy

All other plans require Corbyn to win a GE

Yes.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 18:33

Exactly, listening

So much of the public just want Brexit to be "over"
and a PV just makes it appear more complicated and drags it out further

  • they refuse to accept that any Brexit will be complicated and require years of negotiations with the EU and every other trading partner

It's high time that the centre & left learned from e.g the Trump experience that voters atm just want quick and simple - and the hard right promise them that

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