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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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chomalungma · 05/09/2019 17:39

I feel for the police officers behind him.

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 17:40

If they had the numbers, I'd love that proposal
but we both (should) know they don't

The entire problem is that there aren't the numbers for anything. If there was we wouldn't be here. Even the assumption that the W.A will pass next time is still only that - an assumption.

It's a theoretical possibility. But there are hundreds of theoretical possibilities. None with the numbers. Hence the dead lock. Someone somewhere is going to have to shift to avoid no deal - and I actually think agreeing to a P.V with the W.A passed in advance to signal they are serious, and allowing every mp the right to campaign for whichever side they want, is a much smaller shift than expecting the Lib Dems to capitulate on what has been their flagship policy that has given them a huge boost, or asking the majority of labour mps to endorse a tory brexit.

The tory rebels have been kicked out. They owe the party nothing. They can campaign for leave if they believe in leave - it really isn't a big step for them after they've sacrificed the whip and maybe their entire careers.

Labour mps who don't want a P.V have to accept it's labour's policy anyway so - if J.C becomes P.M after a pre brexit election they're going to have to suck it up. Might as well suck it up now and just campaign for leave.

But what does any of them get for passing the W.A they thought was so disastrous back in March other than the blame for everything that happens after we brexit?

colouringinpro · 05/09/2019 17:40

any links to speech?

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 17:40

I think it may finally have hit him that Brexit is ... complicated.

He's human.

He's realised that he is on the verge of going down in history as the man who caused the break-up of the UK & destroyed the UK economy.

Wonder if his brother resigning finally brought home what that means?

Sure, he personally, will be rich but ... it's quite the thing to carry around with you. He will be a rich leper.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 17:41

No mention repeatedly of 'Surrender' either which I thought would be the next sound bite and slogan.

At a guess some sort of attempt to manipulate Google - like the "model buses" bullshit.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 17:42

I think it may finally have hit him that Brexit is ... complicated. ...He's human.... He's realised that he is on the verge of going down in history as the man who caused the break-up of the UK & destroyed the UK economy.

Colour me cynical.

OublietteBravo · 05/09/2019 17:43

Is there anyone we'd agree on to be PM in a GNU?

Lovely-for-a-Tory-Rory seemed quite popular during the leadership contest.

Or if we’re recruiting from the Lords we could have Heseltine.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 17:43

Way out there thought:

We know BJ doesn't give a shit about Brexit, hard or soft-boiled

What if he brought back the WA himself ?
Just to break the logjam, deliver Brexit and reduce the pressure he's under
He thinks he can get away with anything

The ERG would be furious, but couldn't remove their PM just before a GE,
especially not since it would mean the 4th Tory leader since 2015

Grinchly · 05/09/2019 17:44

BBC have toughened up on their questioning. Javid got a roasting on Today and some tough questioning on PM too just now. It's quite striking.

bellinisurge · 05/09/2019 17:44

Just watched a useless twat flailing about on tv on an important day for those recruits . Embarrassing.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 17:44

pretzels I certainly don't assume the WA would pass
I give it 50:50

It's just the only sure way of stopping No Deal, it it passes

prettybird · 05/09/2019 17:46

I'm watching on catch-up so behind the time, but BJ-Cummings' press conference in Yorkshire in front of poor, suffering new police recruits is a cat crash Confused. It's positively Trumpian in its trite puerility. Shock

MockersthefeMANist · 05/09/2019 17:46

Heopfully the Beeb will have re-instituted the Paxo Principle, and all questions directed at politicians are aimed to find out the following:

"Why is this lying bastard lying to me?"

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 17:46

Did Churchill ever give a speech like that?

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JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 17:47

Lovely-for-a-Tory-Rory seemed quite popular during the leadership contest.

Or if we’re recruiting from the Lords we could have Heseltine.

That's a hard pass from me, we are in the position we are due to the policies of the party they were both members of, Heseltine and the Tory party of the day decimated the North, Stewart has enabled this governments austerity that has literally killed people so fuck that and I hope Labour wouldnt countenance it

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 17:48

And, you know, he really is going to have to live the rest of his life with high security - probably outside the UK.

The ends of those who destroy their country are rarely peaceful.

London has turned against Johnson.

The protests are the tip of a vast iceberg.

This is why I say I feel cut off from sentiment in the rest of the UL because sentiment on this thread doesn't reflect London.

People in London - from the well-off bankers to the zero-hours workers - are angry.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 17:50

Why would a politician choose such an occasion - which should be celebrating the success of young recruits -

to make a nakedly party political speech, hammering his opponents ? Confused

I'd be pissed if I had young relatives there

TatianaLarina · 05/09/2019 17:50

Dunt’s commentary on BJ in Wakefield was fab.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 17:50

BCF I think he'd do that.

But don't underestimate the fuckwittedness of the ERG. Steve Baker is leader, Mark Francois is deputy leader.

Also Johnson would have to pass the WA and with him wobbling like this would he get the numbers, or would the opposition seek humiliation and the collapse of the Tories even now.

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MockersthefeMANist · 05/09/2019 17:51

He's going to "Die in a ditch" defending Brexit.

Aside from previous promises about airports and bulldozers, the 'ditchers' were the Tory lords who refused to compromise on the 1909 Liberal budget, as distinct from the more moderate 'hedgers.'

They lost.

chomalungma · 05/09/2019 17:51

Why would a politician choose such an occasion - which should be celebrating the success of young recruits

Same reason Trump does - when he uses the military as a backdrop.

He should keep politics out of such occasions.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 17:52

And you also get a strong sense the police are thinking he's getting his just desserts here in the capital.

Thatcher used to be able to call on the South Yorkshire police - but Johnson hasn't had time to shell out the £££ there.

And police are also people who are finding their meds are in short supply if they have a long-term prescription.

🤷‍♀️

Hoooo · 05/09/2019 17:52

Pass from me too.

Ok, they might not be full on fascists, but rory-the-tory, clarke, hammond, grieve....

They all voted for austerity.

Busiest day this year at the foodbank today.

Do NOT forget who these people are.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 17:54

Austerity was (and still is) a huge part of the road that brought us here.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 17:54

cat London is a world city. An international city
It really is sometimes like a different country from rUK / rEngland
(which is why many Brexiters seem to hate it)

If we get No Deal, my proposal is that London declares itself an independent city state and applies to join the EU ! Grin
Trouble is, that would totally screw rUK / rEngland