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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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howabout · 05/09/2019 17:06

I’m betting Johnson resigns, recommends to queen that Jc forms a government which she and he both do, next day bj triggers vonc in jc’s Government which he would win, triggering general election. Depending on the timing, lots of visuals of Jc asking Eu for extension, surrendering etc. Jc would be a paralysed caretaker government for a few weeks. Bj back in charge in time to no deal 31st Oct or jan, whichever.

Yes but JC wouldn't even get as far as being able to form a Govt.

This is indeed the strategy. Resign and leave the extension to someone else. Representing the 2/3 majority option confirms Boris doesn't want election before 31 October.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 17:06

We should NOT assume that the Queen wishes to stop No Deal

  • neither she nor her family would go short of meds or their favourite food

Before the ref, there were indeed rumours she supported Brexit

Don't assume too much just because of the design of a hat and outfit
The Royal family can be pretty tone deaf sometimes at realising what people conclude from their appearance and actions.

Anyway, whatever she might think about Brexit now, her priority would be to keep the UK together
We don't know what she thinks would have the best chance of doing that

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 17:06

There is talk of Grieve standing as an independent so I'm not sure why anyone is prattling about being an EU advisor except for propaganda purposes to smear him.

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Apileofballyhoo · 05/09/2019 17:07

Is there anyone we'd agree on to be PM in a GNU?

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 17:08

Anyway, whatever she might think about Brexit now, her priority would be to keep the UK together We don't know what she thinks would have the best chance of doing that

Working the other end of the telescope, she can surely work out what's least likely to do that ?

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 17:08

howabout An example to show who really hopes to make money over Brexit:

another zillionaire Brexiter is betting against major British firms after Brexit

He already made millions betting that Sterling would fall after the 2016 referendum

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnsons-donor-crispin-odey-eyes-brexit-jackpot-with-300m-bet-against-british-firms-0lwjbnqsn

Brexiter 'Crispin Odey eyes Brexit jackpot with £300m bet against British firms'

Boris Johnson’s pro-Brexit backer Crispin Odey has made a £300m bet against British businesses and stands to make huge profits from the woes of the UK economy.

The firm owned by the multimillionaire hedge fund tycoon, who made millions betting against the pound after the 2016 referendum
has taken out £299m in “short” positions on some of Britain’s biggest firms.

His apparent lack of confidence in flagship British groups, including Royal Mail and the shopping centre owner Intu, implies that he expects their share prices to fall as the pound continues to tumble.

According to fresh data obtained by IHS Markit and Short Tracker,
Odey Asset Management has “short” positions on 16 UK listed firms

MeganBacon · 05/09/2019 17:09

But even if it is beyond 31st bj will have avoided asking for the extension himself Which as far as I know was the only reason they wanted to delay. This way he will say he meant what he said that he would not request extension. I’m not making this up entirely by the way it was in politico London playbook this morning.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 17:09

Is there anyone we'd agree on to be PM in a GNU?

Frankly, I'm easy. Hell, I'd take Boris if it got no deal off the table permanently.

prettybird · 05/09/2019 17:09

Jo Swinson's assertion that there weren't enough Tory rebels to be worth even considering a GNU working with Labour was before 21 "rebel" Conservatives were expelled from the "governing" I use the word loosely Wink party.

DeRigueurMortis · 05/09/2019 17:09

Tbf i think Swinson had the best idea in the Father and Mother of the house...Clarke and Harman.

They are both experienced politicians and from the Tory and Labour Party respectively.

LouiseCollins28 · 05/09/2019 17:10

www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/05/brexit-lords--blow--boris-johnson-pass-bill-stopping-no-deal-politics-live

Boris speaking and loads of (I'm guessing) newly passed out Police Officers. If you were one of them watching him, wouldn't you be sooo tempted to make your first arrest?! Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 17:11

howabout
Jacob Rees-Mogg is in line for a huge personal windfall when Britain exits the single market

[[https://thelondoneconomic.com thelondoneconomic.com
]]
Jacob Rees-Mogg is a long-term backer of investment management firm Somerset Capital,
which has “9.6 billion dollars” under management according to its website

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 17:13

ballyhoo Once the WA is passed, we Brexit.

Any PV after that could only be on the future trade relationship

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 17:14

"bj triggers vonc in jc’s Government which he would win"

How ?

He would still need ⅔ of MPs to vote for it

Lifebi · 05/09/2019 17:15

Could a GNU change the voting age to 16 before calling an election?

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 17:16

Grin Theoretically, but I doubt they would have the votes

A GNU would only be able to pass bills for which it gets a majority

howabout · 05/09/2019 17:19

You have to be an EU citizen to work for the EU. However working for the EU is not the same as being paid as an external adviser. I doubt they rock up for trade talks with the US or Japan or India without consulting some actual Americans, Japanese or Indians first. Wiki tells me Grieve is worth over £3m with significant multinational investments and is 63. I really doubt he will miss his Parliamentary paycheck - there is always his MP's pension, book deal and decades
of media work to fall back on.

FoldyRoll · 05/09/2019 17:20

Come on West Yorkshire, why aren't you heckling and chanting?

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 17:21

People in Wakefield

twitter.com/i/status/1169638023363014656

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 17:21

Could a GNU change the voting age to 16 before calling an election?

If there were to be a GNU, I would imagine it would have very narrow parameters on it's actions. The GNU during WW2 was constituted to only get Britain through the war, and didn't make any political decisions outside of that. And to be fair, within hours of VE day, the 1945 election was being planned.

With reference to that, and Boris' Churchillian conceits, it's worth noting that despite his popularity during the war, Churchill was dropped faster than a bag of weed in a police stop when the election was held .....

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 17:22

howabout So why did any of these MPs you despise so much ever bother to stay MPs until now ?

You really are determined to smear any and every MP who gets in the way of your Brexit without a backstop or FOM

Singasonga · 05/09/2019 17:22

Gove was deliberately playing dumb about the burner phone. She was having none of his stalling.

Yes, that was my impression. So if he ASKS her what a burner phone is, rather than answering she's supposed to tell him to piss off because that's what makes her look more likable to people who already irrationally hate her.

Nope, not buying it. I don't think Gove was being clever, just doing performative dickishness for people who lap that sort of thing up.

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 17:23

Once the WA is passed, we Brexit. Any PV after that could only be on the future trade relationship

Unless they follow the (maybe?) cooper/boles way of doing it - which was pass it in advance on proviso that there is a p.v between the W.A and remain. The plan, once upon a time, was definitely to pass it first and then hold a ref. I remember I think Woman being absolutely outraged that they would consider passing it first - though I was more sanguine, as long as the P.V was assured it actually made sense to get all the w.a legal stuff passed in advance because then if it won it could be enacted immediately.

And I know, I know, you don't have to tell me - you don't believe there is enough people in parliament who would vote that through. But it is nevertheless an option if they could get the numbers. The existence of this previous idea tells us it doesn't have to be W.A immediately followed by leave. ( And there still isn't the numbers for just the w.a either.)

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 17:25

Nothing says authoritarian like a wall of police officers behind you...

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BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 17:25

Yep, DG which is why it is so ridiculous that MPs can think a few weeks as PM would transform bogeyman Corbyn into an election-winner

He doesn't have Churchill's advantage of a war which united the whole country - and which still wasn't enough to get him elected in 1945

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