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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

OP posts:
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AnxietyDream · 05/09/2019 16:50

No 10 confirms motion on Mon will be exactly the same as last night's - the standard FTPA for an early general election, requiring 2/3 majority.

Well, that just seems utterly pointless.

I can't claim to know how many leavers feel, but an ardent leave voter at my work has given up. Boris was his last hope and now he can't see it happening. No need to worry about him turning to the Brexit party, he'd never voted before the referendum and already had no intention to ever vote again.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 16:51

howabout The EU is not going to abandon either Ireland or the SM

Anyone who believes this is possible is just fucking stupid or totally ignorant about the EU and WTO rules & MFN etc

BJ talking about a WA without the backstop is just BJ deliberately going for No Deal

(btw, The ERG have many other reasons for blocking the WA, not just the backstop)

Sostenueto · 05/09/2019 16:51

Rumour round Parliament that Boris is going to advise the Queen NOT to pass bill on not leaving without a deal.......is it possible for him to do that?

Oakenbeach · 05/09/2019 16:52

Unless Corbyn steps aside, they either tolerate him as PM for a few weeks OR vote for the WA

No contest... they’d vote for the WA.

Remarkably Gove said today he’d vote for the WA if I’d were bright back to the HoC! And with the passing of the Kinnock amendment, this is no longer a wild hypothetical!

Basilpots · 05/09/2019 16:53

No Brexit party candidate in my area as of the moment. Not really surprised as my MP is full on No dealer only voted for Mays deal on last outing. He had Johnson up here campaigning during the locals, he’s clearly on the ‘safe list’ for the moment.

Neighbouring constituency (small majority) voted for Mays deal three times has a BXP candidate to contend with.

MeganBacon · 05/09/2019 16:53

I’m betting Johnson resigns, recommends to queen that Jc forms a government which she and he both do, next day bj triggers vonc in jc’s Government which he would win, triggering general election. Depending on the timing, lots of visuals of Jc asking Eu for extension, surrendering etc. Jc would be a paralysed caretaker government for a few weeks. Bj back in charge in time to no deal 31st Oct or jan, whichever.

Peregrina · 05/09/2019 16:54

Philip Hammond certainly didn't jump because he was pushed by his constituency party. He got a ringing endorsement from them only a couple of nights ago.

Could someone not in the EU be an EU Adviser?

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 16:54

howabout We know what is motivating many Tory Brexiters:

Look at those ERG members with investment funds betting against Sterling and British business

Look at the Tory donors who have already made hundreds of millions betting against Sterling and stand to make billions after No Deal

Compared to that, rumours of an EU job look so silly

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 16:56

www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/9871211/boris-johnson-to-scrap-his-weekend-with-the-queen-in-balmoral-to-handle-the-brexit-crisis/amp?__twitter_impression=true
Boris Johnson to scrap his weekend with the Queen in Balmoral to handle the Brexit crisis

BORIS Johnson is having to scrap his weekend with the Queen in Balmoral to handle the Brexit crisis instead.

The PM was due to arrive at Her Majesty’s Scottish castle retreat tomorrow for the Prime Minister’s traditional three day early Autumn stay.

Buckingham Palace officials were “very understanding” about the change of plans because of the ongoing Westminster turmoil, a No10 source revealed.

But Mr Johnson is now only expected to have dinner with the 93 year-old monarch on Friday night.

He will then rush back to Downing Street on Saturday morning after staying the night.

The Aberdeenshire trip was to be Mr Johnson’s first long stay with the Queen since taking office in July.

His girlfriend Carrie Symonds is accompanying him on the annual September commute made by all Prime Ministers to Her Majesty on her long holiday

Abandoning the full weekend is a big embarrassment for the PM.

Is 'very understanding' a euphemism for 'the Queen was bloody delighted'?

OP posts:
DeRigueurMortis · 05/09/2019 16:56

I think BJ can advise the Queen not to give Royal Assent but I don't believe she would agree.

Yes, convention says she should take the advice of her Prime Minister, but any advice that put her in the position of undermining the will of Parliament and thus UK democracy would be untenable.

I imagine the Palace would strongly advise BJ from making such a request in the first place.

chomalungma · 05/09/2019 16:56

umour round Parliament that Boris is going to advise the Queen NOT to pass bill on not leaving without a deal.......is it possible for him to do that

I strongly suspect that she wouldn't do that.

fedup21 · 05/09/2019 16:57

i’m betting Johnson resigns, recommends to queen that Jc forms a government which she and he both do, next day bj triggers vonc in jc’s Government which he would win, triggering general election. Depending on the timing, lots of visuals of Jc asking Eu for extension, surrendering etc. Jc would be a paralysed caretaker government for a few weeks. Bj back in charge in time to no deal 31st Oct or jan, whichever.

Don’t give Bojo ideas!

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 16:57

"Could someone not in the EU be an EU Adviser?"

Doubtful
Anyway, why would they want failed UK politicians who fucked up stopping No Deal ?

Tusk and other EU officials have several times sounded pretty fed up with Remainer politicians for not facing reality and blocking the WA

I doubt that any such Uk ex-pols would be very welcome
Someone would veto their appointment if it was at any sort of high level

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 16:58

Rumour round Parliament that Boris is going to advise the Queen NOT to pass bill on not leaving without a deal.......is it possible for him to do that?

Anything is possible, I guess. A much more important question is does she have to follow his advise in this matter ? A post yesterday (previous thread) suggested not. The last time it happened was with Queen Anne. And I damn well know for all their faux invocations of British history, there are few Leavers that could correctly name the century (18th) we are talking about, let alone the years (170xx-17yy Grin).

What I do know about Queen Anne is that the US still use the "Queen Anne Gallon" ...

Apileofballyhoo · 05/09/2019 16:59

Agree BCF. The only way to stop No Deal is to sign a deal. Revoke is a unicorn. But could a GNU sign a WA with a CU, plus a PD for some other thing that the LDs can accept, and then call an election and all opposition parties put PV in their manifestos? Would the LDs go for that?

I don't really care about the half in and half out thing anymore. Let everyone fight about Brexit after the WA is signed. LDs can fight for a closer relationship with the EU if they want. Tories can fight for a less close if they want. Labour can focus on domestic policies if they want.

We once had a "Rainbow" coalition in Ireland. It was great. We have PR and transferable votes though and due to a natural suspicion of authority, we quite like coalitions. It gives the smaller parties a go sometimes and means you mightn't be entirely wasting your vote by giving a smaller party your No1. And you still get a shot at electing someone if your 1st choice doesn't get in, because transfers. You can vote for as many candidates that are on the ballot in order of preference. I don't think any party in Ireland has had an overall majority for nearly 40 years. I am rambling and it's irrelevant.

howabout · 05/09/2019 17:00

Where does Grieve live and keep his investments BCF - it is not the UK and yes as a multi-lingual lawyer with years of political experience in the UK he is ideally placed to advise the EU in future trade negotiations with the UK. (pure speculation on my part but as a de selected Tory with a Remain agenda his present career was already toast)

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 05/09/2019 17:01

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Peregrina · 05/09/2019 17:02

I’m betting Johnson resigns, recommends to queen that Jc forms a government which she and he both do, next day bj triggers vonc in jc’s Government which he would win, triggering general election.

But presumably the 14 day grace period where someone else tries to form a government comes into play again. This time with Boris out, and Corbyn out, they might then produce a candidate they could all get behind. At the moment, I don't know who, but someone might emerge.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 17:03

I think you've bought the whole 'all politicians are simply out for what they can get and have no principles,' line howabout.

I saw Grieve last night. He had tears in his eyes when talking about his decision.

I'm no Tory fan - but I was genuinely moved.

DeRigueurMortis · 05/09/2019 17:03

It wouldn't work Megan.

After a VONC there is a 14 day period to see who can form a Govt.

If the opposition managed to do this and BJ then called for another VONC there's a) a good chance it would be voted down by any alliance able to form a GNU b) there'd still be another 14 day period to consider.

This would take us past the date for a GE before the 31st.

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 05/09/2019 17:04

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

DeRigueurMortis · 05/09/2019 17:04

I hope the queen puts a picture of Charles and his very close friend...the one and only Nick Soames centre piece on the mantelpiece on Friday

Well a picture speaks a thousands words Grin

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 05/09/2019 17:04

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

chomalungma · 05/09/2019 17:04

’m betting Johnson resigns, recommends to queen that Jc forms a government which she and he both do, next day bj triggers vonc in jc’s Government which he would win, triggering general election

It's just like chess, isn't it....

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 17:05

"Could someone not in the EU be an EU Adviser?"
I would be amazed if that were possible. Only dodgy countries with no concern for democratic oversight allow people who aren't citizens anywhere near the levers of government.

What's that you say. That's exactly what the UK does ?

Well bugger me with a fish fork.

Imagine if a Brit were found to be planning and plotting away in a US political capacity ?

There aren't many countries whose national bank could be run by a non citizen either.

And this isn't sudden DGR racist rant. It's just an observation that some roles require the incumbent to have a demonstrable - and legally enforceable - loyalty to their host country. That's before you look for the best man for the job.

Mind you, could we borrow Justin Trudeau for 5 years ?

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