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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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howabout · 05/09/2019 16:22

Maybe Jo Swinson thinks the Tory rebels will opt to bring back the WA rather than table an extension, unless she forces their hand? (Seems unlikely as this doesn't help the Tories long term. Labour and SNP and LibDems would insist on WA vs Remain confirmatory vote before backing it. It is however what Grieve and Phillips want)

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 16:23

oakenbeach The rebels sacrificed their careers to stop No Deal

If they were pinning all their hopes on another PM, without getting an assurance from Corbyn that he would step aside, then they are fools

Unless Corbyn steps aside, they either tolerate him as PM for a few weeks OR vote for the WA

Otherwise, they've pissed their careers up the wall for nothing

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 16:23

DGR People of the future are going to read that line and just think we were utterly, utterly mad.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 16:25

"..... Seems unlikely as this doesn't help the Tories long term."

We should not assume that the rebels now give a damn about the longterm prospects of a hard right Tory party they loathe

fedup21 · 05/09/2019 16:25

The only sure way to stop No Deal is during 19 -31 October to pass the WA.

Or Revoke!

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 05/09/2019 16:26

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

TwinOtter · 05/09/2019 16:27

Scottish person here, delurking to say that I have about 99% confidence the SNP will not work with the Conservatives...at all, never mind something like that!

No no no! I guess that's one fortunate thing...we don't have to second guess rumours like that because we know for the most part up here our MP's stick to the party line for the most part... Confused

Can imagine Nicola having a right ole laugh over that one! Grin

howabout · 05/09/2019 16:27

Google your constituency and see if wiki lists the Brexit Party candidate. Last I checked more than 250 were officially declared and out campaigning.

JasperRising · 05/09/2019 16:28

Lloyd-George ? After the HoL blocked his budget he called an election specifically on the budget, got re-elected, got blocked again, and got the King to agree to create 1,000 Liberal peers to force it through. Lords capitulated (not often I get to write that word ..) and the Parliament Act was passed, which is one of the more important written laws of our constitution.

I was thinking of Gladstone and Home Rule but Lloyd George is another good example - not one I am as familiar with though (gives me something to read about this evening as variety from the current news!)

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 05/09/2019 16:28

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Basilpots · 05/09/2019 16:33

Gove was deliberately playing dumb about the burner phone. She was having none of his stalling.

howabout · 05/09/2019 16:33

We should not assume that the rebels now give a damn about the longterm prospects of a hard right Tory party they loathe

They are hardly likely to stoke the backlash if they can in any way be seen to be "saving" the Tory Party from itself. Then Jo, Rory and David G get to rise from the ashes perhaps with Jeremy Hunt in charge. If they loathed the Party they would have defected to Change with Anna or LibDems with Dr Lee.

Ken Clarke and Churchill's grandson were off down the pub to enjoy their retirement last I checked.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 16:34

Unless those opposing No Deal compromise and agree on a strategy, then No Deal is what we get

And those who refused to compromise would be enablers.

And I would include those hardcore Remainers who would rather No Deal - with all the suffering for the vulnerable - than either of the likely alternatives:
have a WA without a PV, or have Corbyn heading a GNU

No Deal is still by far the most likely outcome because No Dealers will sacrifice anything and anyone to get it:
let the UK split up into separate countries, sell off the NHS, dismantle the welfare state, demolish workers eights, let people die from lack of meds ....

In contrast, each of the Remainer and non-ND Leaver groups seem to prefer No Deal rather than give up their favourite option.
Maybe they still believe in unicorns
Or maybe some hardcore Remainers think that the country has to be punished by ND for choosing Leave ?

howabout · 05/09/2019 16:36

Basil of course he was because he knows she can't resist the bait. Grin They are both the same sort of Scottish. (full of themselves wind up merchants)

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 16:36

fedup There will be no HoC majority within the period 19-31 October to Revoke

Betting on a Corbyn win and then on Remain winning a PV, approaches unicorn territory

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 16:40

There are easier ways to become a PPC without losing your job...

Jessica elgot@jessicaelgot
No 10 confirms motion on Mon will be exactly the same as last night's - the standard FTPA for an early general election, requiring 2/3 majority. Parliament would then be prorogued if it passes on Monday but if it doesn't pass, he has until Thurs which is the prorogation deadline

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thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 16:41

I am really very worried about the outcome of an early GE, I must say.

I'd almost recommend writing to your MP -if they are Opposition - suggesting they vote against it.

🤷‍♀️

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 16:41

howabout Having sacrificed careers & peerages to stop No Deal, I doubt the rebels would prioritise the future of the Tory party over that

As I posted, unless they do absolutely everything to avoid No Deal, then they pissed their careers up against a wall for nothing
They could have just stayed put

Almost all defectors to other parties are likely to lose their seats in the GE

and anyway, despising their old party doesn't always mean an MP suddenly wants to join those they fought against for years

ListeningQuietly · 05/09/2019 16:41

howabout
One of the Brexit party candidates who is listed on Wiki and their own Linkedin and other places, I am 100% certain will buckle at the last minute for work reasons.
There will be more.
Its all a pyramid scheme at the moment .... www.thebrexitparty.org/brexit-club/

howabout · 05/09/2019 16:45

BCF this is exactly what Farage / Cummings are banking on. Boris was genuinely offering a way out with fudged WA (minus Backstop honest guv) but neither the EU nor Parliament is prepared to play.

Just for clarity I agree that I doubt Boris cares much whether it is No Deal, Revoke, PV, WA. He just wants to be the hero who resolves it and ushers in decades of Tory rule. He would even self-lessly fall on his sword to do this because actually being PM for any length of time is hard work and he already has the Badge.

chomalungma · 05/09/2019 16:46

Speaking of betting

UK to Leave the EU in 2019 1/2
UK Not to Leave in 2019 6/4

UK to officially introduce food rationing in 2019 9/1

No Deal Brexit in 2019 - Yes 3/1, No 1/5

www.paddypower.com/politics

Some interesting bets are available

Avocados to be first food rationed.13/1

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 16:46

The reason Farage set up the BXP the way he did, is to make sure it's immune to what he's done to the Tory party. Any BXP candidate who does not spout the party line whatever that is immediately becomes an ex-candidate. No ifs, buts, or maybes.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 16:47

A hung Parliament is also quite possible after a GE

However, there might not then be the votes to force the govt to do anything, or to form a GNU, especially if there are only a few days before No Deal
So the HoC would be logjammed while time runs out and we No Deal

That's why I say that passing the WA during 19-31 October is the only certain way of stopping No Deal
Revoke in that time period is not going to happen

BoreOfWhabylon · 05/09/2019 16:49

The Queen could always appoint a PM in a GNU. In for a penny in for a pound and all that. At least the frothing would keep stories about her wayward family to a minimum.

Andrew's diary is clear for the next few months...

howabout · 05/09/2019 16:50

BCF I am pretty certain Grieve already has his next career move sewn up as an EU "adviser". Clarke and Soames are in their 80s and 70s. Lots of the rest jumped before they were pushed by their constituency parties - this include Gauke and Johnson.

Not sure what is motivating PH though - rumours abound about his overseas financial affairs.

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