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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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howabout · 05/09/2019 16:00

Wonder what Labour's party conference debate on Brexit positioning will be like?

Wonder if Tories will bother having a Conference?

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 16:01

Personally, I don't mind making compromises. I think there's so much at stake.

And I think the Conservative rebels are a factor that needs to be taken seriously.

But I'm just a fraction of the Labour Membership, and there are many others. And likewise LD fractions.

pumkinspicetime · 05/09/2019 16:01

However we have had two days of Corbyn having a clear plan that doesn't involve a GE that he gets to fight.
I don't blame the other parties for being cautious about his abilities to stick to this new line.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 16:01

The Queen could always appoint a PM in a GNU. In for a penny in for a pound and all that. At least the frothing would keep stories about her wayward family to a minimum.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 16:03

Alarmingly, the one thing we do know is that government under Johnson is terrifying, chaotic, and rides rough-shod over rule of law.

I am terrified of five years of that.

Terrified.

JasperRising · 05/09/2019 16:04

Several pages back now - politics is certainly moving fast - but thanks to those who answered my questions about selecting candidates.

I keep getting flashbacks to studying 19th century history at school - my one memory is of prime ministers resigning and calling general selections if they lost votes. Specifically votes that hinged on Ireland if I remember correctly...

This will all be quite fascinating to study in about 80 years but no so sure I am enjoying living through it! Similarly, the political parties and voting system needed a jolt to demonstrate that they are no longer fit for purpose (in my opinion) but I'm not enjoying the accompanying uncertainty and chaos.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 16:05

DG No Parliament can bind its successors

So after a GE, any legislation requiring the PM to do something to avoid No Deal, e.g. passing the WA, can be repealed by the new HoC

The HoC has failed so far to stop No Deal because they keep delaying and hoping something else will turn up

Your suggestion would just be more of the same

To stop No Deal, MPs have to either pass the WA before a GE, or Corbyn has to win the GE

Even a hung Parliament might not have the votes to stop No Deal happening as time runs out

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 05/09/2019 16:05

The Queen could always appoint a PM in a GNU. In for a penny in for a pound and all that.
We could borrow someone from the HoL too. Not been done for a while. And not that I have any clue which one would be the best bet!

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 05/09/2019 16:06

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

bellinisurge · 05/09/2019 16:08

I agree with you @smilethoyourheartisbreaking

chomalungma · 05/09/2019 16:08

Passing the WA does exactly that

Does it?

I've got to admit to being a bit confusing with what can and can't be guaranteed at the moment, given talk of an election on the 15th October.

howabout · 05/09/2019 16:08

BCF if a GNU secures an extension why would Labour or anyone else pass the WA rather than going for PV or Revoke? Even most Lexiters prefer Revoke to WA - I certainly do and am not in a minority on this among those I know.

If Boris forces a GNU to ask for an extension why would the Tories alienate Tory Leavers (70% of their voters and prefer No Deal or Remain to WA) by putting the WA on the table? By this point all their Remainers have either already gone or will defect to LibDems long enough to get Remain (this is Swinson's strategy).

Singasonga · 05/09/2019 16:10

The critique of her is that she is a puffed up know all obsessed with legalise and Indy.

How desperate do you have to be to think that someone knowing what a burner phone is makes them look like a puffed up know it all? Talk about scraping the barrel.

howabout · 05/09/2019 16:11

smile if the choice were PV with No Deal vs WA (Tory) or WA vs Remain (Labour) who would you vote for?

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 16:13

I keep getting flashbacks to studying 19th century history at school - my one memory is of prime ministers resigning and calling general selections if they lost votes. Specifically votes that hinged on Ireland if I remember correctly...

Lloyd-George ? After the HoL blocked his budget he called an election specifically on the budget, got re-elected, got blocked again, and got the King to agree to create 1,000 Liberal peers to force it through. Lords capitulated (not often I get to write that word ..) and the Parliament Act was passed, which is one of the more important written laws of our constitution.

Funnily enough I was chatting with DW about this last night and I vaguely remember the parliament act poppinp up in 1997 over some parts of nuLabours laws.

howabout · 05/09/2019 16:14

singasong the point is not that she knows what a burner phone is but that she saw fit to explain it to Gove who self-evidently also already knows what a burner phone is, unless he lives under a rock (he doesn't and has teenagers and a journalist wife)

Oakenbeach · 05/09/2019 16:15

I still disagree, why should Parliamentary convention not be adhered to because the Leader of the 4th smallest party in the HOC cant look past her ideaology

You’re obsessed with JS role in this for some reason.... Even if she did, JC wouldn’t have enough support. Her letter a few weeks back to JC made clear that there were simply not enough Tory rebels to countenance such a move. She’s right to press for a “neutral” PM who could genuinely lead a GNU, and not to have caved in as soon as JC deigned to agree to lead such a Government...

As for “convention”, there is no precedent for this, so I’m not sure why you’re so set on this. If Bercow had taken a similar perspective we wouldn’t have had the votes we’ve had this week!

Besides, things have moved on.... We need the WA back and passed when Parliament returns.... If BJ won’t implement it, then we have a GE.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 16:15

The other thing about a caretaker Leader is that, if the deadline really is looking like imposing No Deal by default, Revoking suddenly comes into play. To create breathing space for Next Strps and to avert No Desl.

With no one Party carrying the can.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 16:16

Unless and until someone has the balls big enough to stand in front of the entire nation - all four countries - and say something like

You know that referendum ? It was a shit idea, and even if it wasn't the disinformation surrounding every aspect of it means it could never be relied on in 1,000 years.

we are forever going to have politicians from all sides parroting "respect the referendum".

No, I don't either Sad

ListeningQuietly · 05/09/2019 16:16

Re Brexit Party 500 candidates
um no
Nigel has 550 people who have each paid £500 to earn the title "Prospective Parliamentary Candidate"
At least two I know of will lose their jobs if they stand for elected office role requires being apolitical, people are already unhappy about their statusso will not be there laying down deposits on the day.

BXP is all about Nigel's ego
how many parties has he left since becoming an MEP ?

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 16:17

howabout I was not suggesting an extension to pass the WA

I was saying that anything a GNU / this HoC does, cannot bind a PM who wins the GE (with a majority)

The only sure way to stop No Deal is during 19 -31 October to pass the WA.

A GNU could indeed ensure that the next GE is before Brexit.

However, unless Corbyn wins it, the Tories will simply run out time until No Deal
(this time without any silly tricks that shoot the,selves in the foot)

So a GNU is the way for those who won't make the decision WA vs No Deal to take a big gamble that on the next GE

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 16:18

Sadly, I think a GE - with the potential risk of a Far Right government - is more likely.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 16:18

The other thing about a caretaker Leader is that, if the deadline really is looking like imposing No Deal by default, Revoking suddenly comes into play.

That would shrink the potential number of MPs for a GNU by a considerable number, I think. (I refer you to "respect the referendum")

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 16:19

DGR 'until someone ...'

I couldn't agree more.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 16:19

Nigel has 550 people who have each paid £500 to earn the title "Prospective Parliamentary Candidate"

As I said, it's just a franchise. (Will be interesting to see if this post gets deleted, or I get a nasty message from MNHQ ....) ... and if it's anything like the way AmWay used to work, it won't be exclusive. So you can have many, many people paying for the right in the same constituency ....

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