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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

OP posts:
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thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 15:32

I agree that if Tory rebels can sacrifice their careers and / or peerages etc to vote against their own party over No Deal,

then the LDems & SNP would look pretty shit not to do whatever it takes to stop the Tory party getting No Deal through

I know that's BigChoc but I thought it expressed what s lot of people (on this thread) are thinking very well.

Problem is: that's where we are, I reckon.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 15:33

Jo Swinson should not overplay her hand. I agree if she does stooge will be the appropriate label. And where will they be then? She needs advice from the previous LD stooge to tell her how that played out. If her memory is that short.

Sadly, Paddy Ashdown is no longer with us Sad. Looks live Vince Cable chose the wrong time to step down.

Oakenbeach · 05/09/2019 15:40

All the smaller parties except for Change and LibDems have said they will work with Corbyn in a GNU, if BJ does go for the VONC and Corbyn cant form a GNU that will be on Swinson

But almost all Tories rebels, and many former Labour rebels won’t support Corbyn as PM either... They will be needed.... Something will need to give at some point. I expect it will.

Surely a unifying neutral figure is needed, not JC (whose as marmite as they come), and of JC can’t see that, he’s the problem here.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 15:42

Oaken he's the Leader of the Opposition the onus is not on him to resign

berlinbabylon · 05/09/2019 15:42

I suspect that a lot of Leave voters will stay at home rather truculently as a tacit admission that it is not going to happen now reality has set in. I think the number of frothing at the mouth Leave voters is overestimated

Yesterday the Radio 4 Today programme was interviewing lots of people in Grimsby - which voted to leave (fairly convincingly I think but I don't know the % now). Many were saying they'd probably not bother voting in a GE. Some said they'd consider the Brexit party but I don't think any said they'd definitely vote for it.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 15:44

There's also the argument that a GNU may be forced to act in ways other than promised in manifestos.

So it is good that no identifiable Party Leader has to head it.

🤷‍♀️

But ... who knows?

Oakenbeach · 05/09/2019 15:44

Oaken he's the Leader of the Opposition the onus is not on him to resign

He doesn’t have to resign - he would still be Labour Leader. The onus on him is to be a statesman and put country above party.

Oakenbeach · 05/09/2019 15:45

There's also the argument that a GNU may be forced to act in ways other than promised in manifestos. So it is good that no identifiable Party Leader has to head it.

Exactly, it’s a GNU that’s required not a Labour Government with “confidence and supply” from other parties.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 15:47

To be honest, if all the people/parties who say they are opposed to no deal can't get around a table and thrash something out, then maybe Boris does deserve to win.

It's that simple.

At the moment, it's a little like listening to a bunch of amateur footballers who have somehow won a bye into the World Cup arguing over the colour of the fucking kit instead of training to win.

Daily Mail is quite free to steal quote that if they like.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 15:47

JustanotherposteO0

Yes. The contrary argument is that Corbyn is the Leader of the Opposition.

Simple fact.

It's tricky.

I do think there are genuine advantages for Labour in choosing someone other than our leader to head up s GNU, though.

Eg. No potential baggage to carry into an election + the proof that will act in national interest/can govern in national interest.

🤷‍♀️

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 15:48

I still disagree, why should Parliamentary convention not be adhered to because the Leader of the 4th smallest party in the HOC cant look past her ideaology

LouiseCollins28 · 05/09/2019 15:49

Who's asking Jeremy Corbyn to resign?

If there is to be a Government of National Unity, clearly the person who leads it as Prime Minister should not be someone who will be seeking the office of PM as a party leader in a general election a few weeks from now. How would that situation be "unifying?"

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 15:50

Disclosure: am Labour voter. Hence saying 'our' Party.

I try to be disinterested on this thread but I'm also not going to be disingenuous. There has been way too much of that over the last 3 years and I feel beholden to be as ethical as I possibly can be in my private life.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 15:50

If any MPs want to stop No Deal, but refuse to tolerate Corbyn as PM for a few weeks,
then imo they aren't adult politicians

What terrible things do they think he can do as a minority PM ? Confused
Totally different to an elected PM with a working majority from his own party

MPs can vote down any bill they don't like, or indeed vote him out again.

Those MPs like Swinson seem to be terrified of "Corbyn Cooties" 🤦🏻‍♀️

Or they are posing for FB while the country's hair is on fire.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 15:52

Just

You are well within your rights to disagree.

This is all such a crazy situation there is absolutely no one 'right' path to take.

And, similarly, no one, clear path that would lead us out of this mess.
🤷‍♀️

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 15:53

It's hideous.

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 05/09/2019 15:54

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 15:55

I'm wondering if Cummings will do for / to BJ what Nick Timothy did to May ? Hmm

i.e. give terrible advice that eventually ruins BJ , then get paid for writing articles about how shit BJ was as PM

BoreOfWhabylon · 05/09/2019 15:55

Poor Carrie Symonds, who thought she was hitching her wagon to a rising star.

Wonder if we'll soon be seeing her quitting No10 (and taking the dog with her).

howabout · 05/09/2019 15:56

This is why Boris wins if Parliament rather than him asks the EU for the extension and then they have the GE. The GE would have to be part of the extension process as it is the only thing the GNU are united on.

Even Remainers here cannot agree who should do the asking. Leavers are pretty much agreed that no-one should be asking. Paradoxically this makes a Tory GE win on a No Deal platform more likely. I think Cummings, although not necessarily Boris, wants GE after 31 October.

As Stephen Bush (New Statesman) said last night it is impossible to take No Deal off the table because No Deal is the table.

Hoooo · 05/09/2019 15:57

Is there a vote today?

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 15:57

There's also the argument that a GNU may be forced to act in ways other than promised in manifestos.

Time is ticking, so this conversation may prove to be entirely hypothetical in a few days (maybe even hours). But I don't see any reason why a GNU shouldn't simply act to stop no deal Brexit, and then legislate for an order general election. I think trying to get a PV under a GNU would be too much, but if the no-deal Tories are serious Hmm then I can't see too much to object to in that, as in reality it makes no difference who the leader is (which I appreciate is an argument that goes two ways ...)

If it's possible, a more refined approach would be:

  • stop no deal, which requires ...
  • requesting an extension
  • attempt to legislate that if no subsequent deal is agreed by end of extension, the WA is considered approved
  • call an election

that would then place the onus on whoever came into power to have to explicitly (re) legislate for no deal again, which would need to be a manifesto pledge. Because before we start picking my thoughts to pieces, it's worth reminding any fans of democracy in (have we got any fans of democracy in ?) that no-deal wasn't part of any parties manifesto in 2017.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 15:57

Anyway, that's the impasse that will probably get us a GE on Monday.
Which Johnson's cronies may well win.

We can't overcome it on MN / and I guess they can't in Westminster ...

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 15:58

Yes, don't leave the poor dog !

I'm also concerned the poor animal could end up at Battersea dogs home, once his GE job is over, or doesn't happen

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 15:59

" it is impossible to take No Deal off the table"

Wrong.
Passing the WA does exactly that

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