Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
28
DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 14:56

according to the article I posted yesterday the Brexit Party already have over 500 candidates ready selected. Tempted to question if Labour or Tories can say the same give the current rate of resignations / sackings.

Grin

Worth reminding ourselves that the BXP isn't really. A party, that is. It's effectively a business set up by Farage where "candidates" are really just franchisees. Unless I missed something. I really hope all the other parties have got a line on that, as I suspect it might deter some TrueTories® who aren't prepared to vote for a vanity party that would cause Robert Mugabe to say Cor blimey, that's a bit too much ...

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 14:58

Ican'treachthepretzels Yes.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 14:59

I think the number of frothing at the mouth Leave voters is overestimated.

They had plenty of chances to get a million leavers to march in London if they had wanted. Just for the historical record, I would be curious to know what's the biggest rally/march UKIP ever staged ?

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 14:59

Do you have to have manifesto to stand in a GE? can he get away with not bothering again or has he got some scribblings in a desk drawer somewhere?

Basilpots · 05/09/2019 15:00

BXP have put Rupert Lowe Midlands MEP who took Southampton FC down and now converting his farm into a multi million pound stud farm against Tom Watson in Dudley which could be entertaining as Tom has a slim majority.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 15:02

Im not sure Fatberg will get re selected in Dudley tbh

DeRigueurMortis · 05/09/2019 15:03

The thing is if BJ loses wins a VONC then the opposition only have 14 days to form an alternative Govt.

Otherwise we go to a GE.

14 days gets BJ to the timetable he wanted.

I simply cant see a way through where Labour/LibDems/SNP can agree to a GNU in that time (or in any time if I'm honest).

The LibDems have already paid the price for playing kingmaker once, they are not going to do it again for Corbyn and I can't see the SNP doing this either.

Corbyn isn't going back a GNU under Clarke/Harmen as Swinson has proposed (though personally I'd like to see this).

As leader of the main opposition JC should be the obvious choice to rally round to prevent Brexit - and that's part of the reason we are where we are imho - because he's a divisive figure even within his own party, never mind being able to command the respect of other parties at a time of crisis.

I read (can't recall the source) someone saying on twitter that all those Tories who thought just strong charismatic leadership was the answer should be questioning their judgement right now.

I don't necessarily think that's true, because it's weak and non charismatic leadership on the part of the opposition that's a very significant issue and if that wasn't the case I think we'd be in a very different place right now.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 15:05

This suggests Labour are going to whip for a GE on Monday.

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue
Basilpots · 05/09/2019 15:05

Me neither Just he is looking slimmer these days though.Grin

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 05/09/2019 15:06

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Emilyontmoor · 05/09/2019 15:08

They had plenty of chances to get a million leavers to march in London if they had wanted Two problems, getting them out of the pub and providing enough Zimmer frames. The typical Remainer likes a nice day out with a picnic in the park, the frothing leavers prefer the pub / armchair in front of the telly. I notice the frothing goes up to full f*k and c*t around 10.30pm.....

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 15:09

Anyone who won't rally around JC bears some of the blame for whatever happens. There is no excuse for not supporting JC in being a stopgap pm to prevent national disaster just because they don't like him. They're not giving him five years and a free reign (which he might end up with after a GE and then where would they be! unlikely - but could happen.)

Even Ken Clarke has said he'd get behind JC.

Jo Swinson is being a dick and needs to be careful. I voted lib dem in the locals and the EU elections this year. Currently far more minded to vote for labour in a GE based on her intransigence.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 15:09

The LibDems have already paid the price for playing kingmaker once, they are not going to do it again for Corbyn and I can't see the SNP doing this either.

All the smaller parties except for Change and LibDems have said they will work with Corbyn in a GNU, if BJ does go for the VONC and Corbyn cant form a GNU that will be on Swinson

Starts humming meatloaf

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 15:09

"if the commons don't vote for a GE before prorogation they will be forced to come back and listen to a Boris Queen's speech. At that point they either vote for it or he loses a vote of no confidence"

Labour don't have to call for a VoNC, or vote for it

It is a valid strategy for Labour to resist a GE until No Deal is off the table

SInce howabout claims Labour are doomed whatever they do

  • and that every event happening atm is just helping the Tories ... like BJ's brother quitting ? -
then they might as well try to protect the poorest & the vulnerable by doing their best to stop No Deal

BJ is LYING again if he claims he can get a WA without the backstop
Won't happen, unless he throws away all the red lines - FOM; ECJ etc - and starts renegotiating from scratch, which would require an extension of 2 years !

So on 17 October, thanks to the govt cockup allowing Kinnock's bill through, the HoC can vote on the WA
Votes earlier this year had about 450 MPs opposed to No Deal
If they really mean it, then they can vote for the WA, which by that time will be the only certain way to stop ND

LouiseCollins28 · 05/09/2019 15:12

Can't wait to see the Boris manifesto section on "Supporting Families" Grin

Emilyontmoor · 05/09/2019 15:12

The youth vote came out in droves here where there was a remain candidate they could get behind. Not just to vote but to campaign as well. As a teller my sheets were taken every twenty minutes by fit young people on bikes whilst the Conservative teller who had been shipped in from a neighbouring constituency wasn’t relieved of her sheets at all or indeed replaced when she left..... and it was a Conservative seat with a remainer MP........

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 15:16

LDems need to be v careful or they will have the permanent reputation as Tory Part Stooges

First their coalition with Cameron

Now if they flounce off and let BJ get No Deal through and / or win a 5-year term, they may be finished as a credible centre party

There would be a centrist backlash against any party that is complicit in letting the Tories get No Deal

Labour would claim they could have stopped No Deal but for the LDems flounce.
They could haul back all the lost votes and then take those longterm LDem voters that are not right-leaning

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 15:18

That Johnson brother can use the excuse for resigning "to spend more time with my family"

If BJ resigned "to spend more time with my family", the first question from journalists would be "which one" ?!

LunarSea · 05/09/2019 15:19

It won't happen but.... anyone else enticed by the prospect of a GNU headed up by Hilary Benn? Just for the potential twitter storm which would be unleashed at the prospect of "Britain Trump" being superceded by a Hil(l)ary.Grin

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 15:21

A far as I am concerned 2010-2015 made good sense for the LDs, and in reality we should all be a little grateful they entered a formal coalition (rather than any of the less transparent routes) and managed to keep the Tories on some sort of a leash.

If they can work to keep the Tories at bay - especially this new hench 'roid-fuelled incarnation of the Tory party - again, they would have my respect.

They also need to remember the maxim:

All that it takes for evil to triumph, is good people do nothing

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 05/09/2019 15:24

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

DeRigueurMortis · 05/09/2019 15:24

Icant I fully agree with you.

As someone left of centre I'd find it very disheartening to see members of the Tory party rebelling at the expense of their careers to pursue the national interest, but witness the LibDems and/or SNP being unable to support Labour on a temporary basis to do the same.

Simply based on the narrative to date I am simply not convinced that JS/NS will back JC if it came to it.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/09/2019 15:29

I agree that if Tory rebels can sacrifice their careers and / or peerages etc to vote against their own party over No Deal,

then the LDems & SNP would look pretty shit not to do whatever it takes to stop the Tory party getting No Deal through

IDontBelieveYou · 05/09/2019 15:29

Local councillor is rattled. He says we should fight “every inch of ground” on the “Surrender bill”. Isn’t it too late for that?

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 15:30

This is from 15th Aug

inews.co.uk/news/brexit/jeremy-corbyn-prime-minister-snp-mp-no-deal-brexit/

Swipe left for the next trending thread