Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
28
DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 14:33

Also he has no infrastructure there, no data on where his voters are. Could he collect that in a few weeks?

Cambridge Analytica are --> thataway ....

LonelyTiredandLow · 05/09/2019 14:33

Interestingly fb has churned up some leavers talking about not being able to "2nd vote" the referendum result away (ends in "I am a British Citizen" Hmm) - No10 spin on this as a rerun of the ref is already in full swing with memes it seems. I did ask him to clarify if to him 2nd vote meant a GE...in which he would now merrily vote for a Tory govt.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 14:34

Well.

All I can hope is that Labour hold their nerve & refuse him that election.

🤷‍♀️

I think, personally, there is the mother of all battles going on in LOTO office at the moment.

MockersthefeMANist · 05/09/2019 14:35

Voting patterns for EU elections are different, and so is the voting system.

Tories stay home as a protest. Labour voters do so because they have no faith.

The core Labour vote, which is just about all Corbyn has left, is very resilient.

LouiseCollins28 · 05/09/2019 14:35

You and I are pretty much polar opposites on here usually Pretzels but yes, that's pretty much it Grin I didn't say it was a good strategy, lol.

Basilpots · 05/09/2019 14:36

Farage was offering to explain to my why Labour will fail in today’s YouTube offering.

LonelyTiredandLow · 05/09/2019 14:39

howabout EU elections, local elections and GE are all very different matters, especially to lifelong Labour voters.

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 14:41

Labour Leavers turned out to vote in the EU elections for the Brexit Party.

Did they? The brexit party did not get that many more seats than UKIP did in 2014 - whilst UKIP got none. UKIP voters voted for the brexit party. I don't think it's fair to say from the numbers that it was definitely the labour leavers who gave them the few extra seats - the tory number of seats collapsed far more disastrously.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 14:41

This seems as good a place as any to restate my preferences for any general election to deliver (yet) another hung parliament. Only properly hung this time. Maybe with a 3/4 strike rate in 10 years the message will finally penetrate some really thick skulls that the old demographics and parties are gone - forever. You can't possibly govern peacefully and inclusively with a winner takes all electoral system which alternatively ignores over 50% of the population on any given day.

Yet another load of old bollocks we have been fobbed off with all my life (my DM used to sign wistfully about wasting votes on the Liberals) is that "at least FPTP delivers strong government" ...

Oh do fuck off.

HPFA · 05/09/2019 14:41

All the indicators of the past 3 years have been that UKIP/BXP are just a paper tiger

Most people have never actively campaigned for a party in an election and have no idea of the hard work and data collection involved. Most of the work is getting your supporters to actually turn out as much as persuading people you're right.

Obviously the BP are going to get votes but they won't know whether to spend the effort in getting Mr Jones at No 21 out of bed or Mr Smith at No 22

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 14:42

And - of course - UKIPS EU/ local election success never translated to the national vote. No reason to assume BXP would either (beyond wishful thinking Hmm)

Hoooo · 05/09/2019 14:45

DG "strong and stable"

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 14:45

Maybe Labour should start asking the LibDems to change their leader for someone who will work with Corbyn, essentially thats what Swinson wants to happen with all of her 17? Mp's against Labours 270?

howabout · 05/09/2019 14:45

Farage doesn't have to win any seats. There are over 100 Conservative / Labour marginals in Leave areas where every vote for the Brexit Party is a vote against Labour. His strategy is to signal to his ex Tory supporters to vote Tory and to his ex Labour supporters to vote for him.

None of the Brexit Party actually want to end up in Parliament.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 14:48

And - of course - UKIPS EU/ local election success never translated to the national vote. No reason to assume BXP would either

Well UKIP are still hanging around, no ?

Anyway, unless BXP really can put up 650 candidates, they're going to be doing some interesting second guessing as to which constituencies might be most effective. That's before you hope they've done some deep research into their candidates pasts ....

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 14:49

fair point justanother

You've lost me round that curve howabout He's asking for an election pact with the tories where he is given exclusive rights to the north but he doesn't want to win the seats? But if the tories aren't standing in the north (or only nominally so) - and the BXP don't want the seats ... who does he envisage taking them?

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 14:49

There are over 100 Conservative / Labour marginals in Leave areas where every vote for the Brexit Party is a vote against Labour

Nope dont see it, disillusioned Tories will prob vote BXP for the most part, I still think a lot of Labours votes in the North is going to be carried on the domestic agenda

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 14:50

The more I think about this, the more I think Johnson's resignation threat is being mad in order to bump Labour into voting for a GE on Monday.

As time goes on, a compromise between LDs and Lab is more likely.

Hence the benefits of forcing the consideration of who leads a GNU now, rather than later.

howabout · 05/09/2019 14:50

DGR according to the article I posted yesterday the Brexit Party already have over 500 candidates ready selected. Tempted to question if Labour or Tories can say the same give the current rate of resignations / sackings.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 14:51

A person I know who follows Scottish developments commented:

Q: Can anyone else make sense of the rumours of a Tory-SNP alliance to win a HoC vote for an early election ?

Aye it's bullshit Grin

Anyone wi half a brain knows that the Tories hate the SNP wi a passion which is mostly mutual on the SNP's part

This rumour is down to Christine Jardine tweeting absolute proven bollocks last night more fib dem yellow Tory lies

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 14:53

Ican'treachthepretzels Biggest losses were to the LDs. And polling continues to suggest Lab losses on grounds of Brexit to BP/Cons pretty negligible & off-set by Con losses.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 14:55

This rumour is down to Christine Jardine tweeting absolute proven bollocks last night more fib dem yellow Tory lies

What a shocker Hmm Doesnt seem like some of the LD's are that committed to Remaining if they cant work with Corbyn and are tweeting proven bollocks about the SNP

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 14:55

Biggest losses were to the LDs. And polling continues to suggest Lab losses on grounds of Brexit to BP/Cons pretty negligible & off-set by Con losses.

That is what I had been led to believe was correct, yes. But howabout sings a different tune.

MoltoAgitato · 05/09/2019 14:55

I suspect that a lot of Leave voters will stay at home rather truculently as a tacit admission that it is not going to happen now reality has set in. I think the number of frothing at the mouth Leave voters is overestimated.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 14:56

I think the number of frothing at the mouth Leave voters is overestimated.

Empty vessels and all that

Swipe left for the next trending thread