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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

OP posts:
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GlassOfPort · 05/09/2019 14:08

Regarding the VONC, I would just point out that Salvini just tried a similar stunt in Italy.

He triggered a VONC against the Government he was part of, with the idea of triggering an election, where he was going to triumph as a Real Man of the People

Instead his coalition partners reached out to the opposition and formed an alternative government...

Here, the opposition could get their act together and form a GNU.

Tanith · 05/09/2019 14:09

Nick Bowles says it like it is:

"Nick Boles MP
@NickBoles
The parliamentary term is less than 3 days old and already the world has discovered what whose of us who have worked with Boris Johnson have always known: he is cowardly, weak, vindictive and without morals. Behold your Prime Minister, ladies and gentlemen."

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 14:09

ouch! Grin

Basilpots · 05/09/2019 14:10

Just watched Joanna Cherry explain to Michael Gove what a burner phone is !!!

You couldn’t make this up Shock

howabout · 05/09/2019 14:13

Jo Swinson already said today she will NOT back Corbyn in a GNU. This bounces Labour into supporting an early GE rather than risk Boris resigning and leaving "anyone but Corbyn" to ask for the extension.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 14:14

I am struggling to believe - especially when he's stood next to Farage - that Boris Johnson has enough stock left to persuade Brexiteers he is the man to deliver what they want. And I can't see Farage taking a gamble now on a Boris-led Tory majority government.

Not quite sure what it may translate to, but surely the people backing Boris must have a serious case of buyers regret ?

howabout · 05/09/2019 14:16

Sometimes clear Gove has teenagers and Cherry does not. Do you really think he doesn't know what a burner phone is? Grin The critique of her is that she is a puffed up know all obsessed with legalise and Indy. Explaining the obvious kinda feeds the narrative, as does pursuing pointless court cases on Parliamentary procedure.

MarshaBradyo · 05/09/2019 14:17

Just when you think it can’t ramp up any more it does

howabout · 05/09/2019 14:19

DGR Farage on breakfast TV this morning offer Boris the South in return for a free reign in the North. That is his clear messaging to the Brexit Party faithful of an informal pact in place.

(Tories are just gonna have to Tory to keep Brexit Party out obvs)

DarlingNikita · 05/09/2019 14:19

Anybody else think the WA will reappear and will get through on the back of Labour and moderate Tory’s? If the alternative is no deal

I think so, yes. It's always been the only possible deal.

pumkinspicetime · 05/09/2019 14:19

Given what government ministers have disclosed they were unaware of, for example that the Dover/Calais route was important for trade, I think it is best not to assume they know basic information.

LouiseCollins28 · 05/09/2019 14:20

Could Boris appoint a Deputy PM (there currently isn't one) and resign as Prime Minister but remain leader of the Conservative Party and still lead them into a GE?

If he did that, it would not be "I" Boris Johnson who requested an Article 50 extension from the EU but his nominated deputy? who would serve only until the dissolution of Parliament, at which point Boris (still Conservative leader) becomes figurehead again and seeks a new mandate as PM.

Probably overthinking

howabout · 05/09/2019 14:23

What is the scenario where the WA comes back?

howabout · 05/09/2019 14:24

Why would Boris do that Louise?

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 14:24

DGR Farage on breakfast TV this morning

That was a lifetime ago ...

MockersthefeMANist · 05/09/2019 14:26

Farage continues to beleive the fantasy that he can win Labour seats.

Labour Leavers are not like Tory Leavers. Many of them have Brexit as a low priority behind schools and NHS and other traditional strong Labour issues. Others are the apathetic who became disillusioned when Brexit did not happen on the Monday morning after the vote. They will stay in bed.

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 14:27

Farage on breakfast TV this morning offer Boris the South in return for a free reign in the North

What the fucking hell do they think they are - early medieval kings carving up the land?
People watching this shit need to start really listening to what is being said and engage their brains about what it all actually means - and how these so called 'men of the people' really see them and their little lives.

Hoooo · 05/09/2019 14:29

Wtaf is going on!?....

HPFA · 05/09/2019 14:30

Farage continues to beleive the fantasy that he can win Labour seats.

Also he has no infrastructure there, no data on where his voters are. Could he collect that in a few weeks?

Winning seats isn't as straightforward as firing out Facebook ads.

LouiseCollins28 · 05/09/2019 14:30

So he doesn't have to request an A50 extension. If Boris cannot get an election to change the composition of the House of Commons and cannot get an acceptable deal that Parliament approves during October then "Art 50 extension" is shortly to be confirmed as the Law. The government will need to obey the law, but Boris can avoid doing that by resigning.

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 14:30

If he did that, it would not be "I" Boris Johnson who requested an Article 50 extension from the EU but his nominated deputy? who would serve only until the dissolution of Parliament, at which point Boris (still Conservative leader) becomes figurehead again and seeks a new mandate as PM.

So chicken shit runs away - gets some fall guy to do the work he's too afraid to do and then sweeps back in when the coast is clear pretending he's a hero and not a yellowbellied incompetent? Depressing thing is I bet there really are people who are thick enough to fall for that.

Hoooo · 05/09/2019 14:30

Does anyone on here really think he's going to resign!?

prettybird · 05/09/2019 14:31

Students of Scottish politics will know that the SNP struggled for years to live down the soubriquet "Tartan Tories" after being blamed for bringing down the Labour Government in 1979 and ushering in 18 years of Conservative Rule. (I'm sure howabout will agree with that - as she mentioned it earlier, as well as pointing out the source of the "rumour" that the SNP were going to do a deal with the Tories Shock)

Are the LibDems willing to risk that, by refusing to work with Corbyn in a GNU? Hmm If so, they are even more dead in Scotland - and I can see my 83 year old Dad, who lives in Jo Swinson's constituency, going out and actively campaigning for the SNP to get rid of her hopefully for a better SNP candidate than the last one . (She already knows that although he used to vote for her, he no longer does).

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 14:31

All the indicators of the past 3 years have been that UKIP/BXP are just a paper tiger. A few votes here and there - maybe enough to upset some constituency results, but the idea that the next general election - whenever it is - will deliver a host of BXP MPs is beyond insane.

"It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

howabout · 05/09/2019 14:32

Mockers Labour Leavers turned out to vote in the EU elections for the Brexit Party. It was Tory Leavers who stayed at home.

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