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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

OP posts:
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tobee · 05/09/2019 13:43

Thanks for responses re my question on stockpiles.

I went through all the scenarios I could think of (undoubtedly missing a few) and even revoke didn't make me feel 100% relaxed. And started to wonder if I'm getting paranoid.... Confused

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 13:43

Esther Webber@estwebber
Only in the House of Lords: top lawyer explains terms of Article 50 as one of its authors shakes his head behind her
video

OP posts:
howabout · 05/09/2019 13:44

Christine Jardine MP (Edinburgh LibDem)
@cajardineMP
· 18h
Rumours rife in Westminster that SNP plotting with Tories to pass deal for General Election that would make blocking No Deal Brexit impossible. Stronger for Scotland or just for the SNP?

LibDems complete with Dr Lee are the new Remain Tartan Tories.

The refusal to work with Corbyn is all about appealing to anti-Boris Scottish Tories. Issue is it will probably backfire and force Labour voters in Swinson's seat to vote SNP. Ditto saving Stephen Gethins for the SNP. I only needed an excuse (except I don't actually live there) Grin

Will be some consolation if Jo Swinson loses her seat and Chuka or Luciana ends up in charge.

More pertinently this is also the LibDems going after Tory Remain by reassuring them they are not Corbyn enablers. This may also stop Labour defections to LibDems and maximise the Remain vote share but I don't think a vote split like this actually works in FPTP election.

Peregrina · 05/09/2019 13:45

Ed Vaizey in Wantage, is now talking about standing in a GE against an official Tory candidate. It could either let the LibDem in or alternatively could trounce the official Tory candidate. Either would be a good outcome.

Mistigri · 05/09/2019 13:46

Wish I didn't have so much work atm, feel like I am missing out on history! Things are moving so fast that it is very hard to follow once you fall behind.

Jo Johnson though ... Shock

Feel like I had some things right (Blowjob's plan to bounce the opposition into trying to force an extension) but some things wrong: while this cabinet is full of utter incompetents, I didn't expect the wheels to come off this fast. My confidence in no Brexit (or at least, no Brexit on 31/10) is pretty much unchanged at >90%.

Looking forward to serving up some humble pie on some other threads GrinCake though I am not crying victory quite yet.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 13:47

Rumours rife in Westminster that SNP plotting with Tories to pass deal for General Election that would make blocking No Deal Brexit impossible. Stronger for Scotland or just for the SNP?

So what's in it for the SNP ? Unless they've got a cast iron guarantee of an IndyRef, why enable Boris into a no deal ?

prettybird · 05/09/2019 13:47

I'm pretty sure that defamation is covered by privilege - although I'm not sure that it is covered if there is malice involved...... Hmm

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 13:49

Steve Hawkes @steve_hawkes
Quite incredibly - anonymous Minister tells The Times that Boris Johnson WILL resign rather than go to Brussels for an extension. Surely that just encourages the Opposition to delay an Election

OP posts:
Singasonga · 05/09/2019 13:50

Any chance a journo could get JRM to repeat what he's said in an interview, when he's out of reach of Parliamentary privilege?

derxa · 05/09/2019 13:50

/

Belindabelle · 05/09/2019 13:50

OMG what a day.

I usually always work from home but this morning I had to attend a 3 hour meeting. No Phones!

I thought today was going to be non eventful.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 13:53

Quite incredibly - anonymous Minister tells The Times that Boris Johnson WILL resign rather than go to Brussels for an extension. Surely that just encourages the Opposition to delay an Election

I'm guessing he's thinking it would keep his stock up with the Brexiteer nutters who he believes will still deliver a Tory majority (even if not a working majority) after the next election, with him standing as leader a la Major.

Have no idea if the Tory rulebook allows that, but it seems rules are so last century anyway.

DeRigueurMortis · 05/09/2019 13:53

RTB - I cant see BJ has any other option and think you're right.

JC seems to be holding firm along with the SNP so a vote using a short bill or FTPA is unlikely to work.

A VONC on the other hand (which sounds unpalatable - but can be spun as simply a procedural way to thwart the rebel alliance) has a good chance of success.

It's one thing JC/NS/JS holding out against an election on BJ's terms but to actually vote as having confidence in the govt???? Unthinkable.

Abstaining won't work as it's a majority vote and the Tories themselves can push it over the line (even without the rebels).

It would set a precedent for sure but given the all or nothing approach BJ/DC seem to have embarked on I'd probably be more surprised if they didn't do this rather than if they did.

They've done the purge and are under pressure to "forgive" the Tory rebels - they don't want this so need to go to the polls ASAP in this regard and not just re: 31st deadline.

So at this point they either accept they've lost and back down (and pay the price with Farage) or go for broke with a VONC.

If anyone has thoughts on an alternative option from BJ/DC I'd be interested but I personally can't see another way through for them.

LonelyTiredandLow · 05/09/2019 13:55

Did BoZo say he would resign himself? In that case he is definitely NOT resigning then.

I think LD's will be softening to Labour considerably given the last 48hrs. I'd not expect they would be as hostile now as before the break to a GNU. I'm really confused as to why they aren't all talking about this rather than an election Confused

LonelyTiredandLow · 05/09/2019 13:57

I would also just like to ponder that BoZo & Co are spinning out far too many SM "messages" for ordinary Brexiteers to keep up with. Mine all seem highly confused due to the speed of everything Grin

LyraParry · 05/09/2019 13:58

They are going to no confidence themselves aren't they?

Hopefully. Followed by 14 days to get support behind someone relatively neutral (there's a lot of independent MPs in HoC these days) to request an extension until end of Jan to allow for an election.

A one line bill is also a good option because it would be (as far as I understand) amendable. Which would mean they could amend it to require implementation of the extension before coming in to affect.

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 14:02

But if Bojo VONC himself - we still get the 14 days to form a new govt don't we? So he could tell the world he has no confidence in himself as PM and then still not get his GE - instead allowing JC to take his place?

That would be ... pretty awesome.

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 14:03

LonelyTiredandLow

'I think LD's will be softening to Labour considerably given the last 48hrs. I'd not expect they would be as hostile now as before the break to a GNU. I'm really confused as to why they aren't all talking about this rather than an election '

My guess is - Corbyn.

Lib Dems would, I think, have two demands: People's Vote & GNU headed by someone other than Corbyn.

I suspect Labour have decided the second is non-negotiable.

Who knows, though? It may yet change.

But people seem to be moving, with speed, to an advanced GE footing - & I think that alone makes a GE, rather than GNU, more likely.

Personally, I think that's a pity.

GNU, with PV, would be my preferred option.

MotherOfSoupDragons · 05/09/2019 14:04

So is JC so desperate to be PM he's prepared to be PM of UK minus Scotland?

ListeningQuietly · 05/09/2019 14:04

My stockpile stays firmly topped up until I've actually seen the post Brexit customs arrangements working smoothly.
I do not trust politicians of any hue at the moment

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 14:04

Lyra Hope you're right.

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 14:07

And ... if Bojo triggers a VONC and the rebel alliance form a govt until they can hold a GE at the time of their choosing -and the tories (sans rebels) are banished to the opposition benches - will the other tory mps really stand by Boris, or will they be sending their letters into the chairmen of the 1922?

thecatfromjapan · 05/09/2019 14:07

Oh. Sorry, I misread your post, LonelyTiredandLow.

I think the LDs aren't softening, and that's a sticking point. And Labour aren't either, so that's another.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 14:07

So is JC so desperate to be PM he's prepared to be PM of UK minus Scotland?

Not quite sure what route was taken to get to that statement ?

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 14:07

I bet Theresa May has her letter written, sealed and ready to go.

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