Meet the Other Phone. Only the apps you allow.

Meet the Other Phone.
Only the apps you allow.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
28
LonelyTiredandLow · 05/09/2019 12:40

The fact he kept it from his aides shows 2 things to me:

  1. he doesn't trust Cummings/knows he is a bully
  2. is retaining some independent thought process, at least.
LonelyTiredandLow · 05/09/2019 12:42
RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 12:43

Darren McCaffery @darreneuronews
Back in 2013 @BorisJohnson talking about the Milibands to the @Telegraph:

"Only a socialist could do that to his brother, only a socialist could regard familial ties as being so trivial as to shaft his own brother."

Jo Johnson is a socialist then apparently

OP posts:
ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 05/09/2019 12:45

I think he also kept it from Cummings so he could use it as a weapon against him. He can use it as part of the excuse to boot Cummings out as a scapegoat for this mess.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 12:45

Jennifer Williams @jenwilliamsmen
MP tells me Labour definitely won't be voting for an election on Monday; speculates the PM could bring forward a one-line bill changing the Fixed Term Parliament Act instead (so he can call one himself), but whether that would get through surely seems doubtful

OP posts:
HPFA · 05/09/2019 12:50

Michael Gove getting eviscerated by Hilary Benn in Committee

twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1169574251789279233

tobee · 05/09/2019 12:56

I thought of a question last night (i.e before Jo Johnson resignation), in light of the week's events, when would posters feel safe to dismantle their No Deal stockpile stashes? 📦 📦 📦

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 12:58

Surprise!!

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall
Jacob Rees Mogg confirms that the Commons will not be prorogued until the Benn bill has completed its passage.

Government has fully retreated.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 12:59

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall
Also says the Govt will be bringing back another motion on an early general election on Monday.

OP posts:
Apileofballyhoo · 05/09/2019 12:59

Oh Lordy. I'm worn out again from all the excitement.

Howabout I find your logic hard to follow at times. I think the Lib Dems are at nothing with their Remain Remain Remain thing. The Tories unleashed the Brexit monster and the best we can hope for is that it can be tamed until it dies. Forcing it back into a cage will just make it more savage. A long transition period and a Jobs First Brexit (I do realise that's an oxymoron) will do fine. I know I'm sorry that Labour isn't the party of remain, but somebody has to be the party of compromise in a divided country. I suppose you think that Labour will be decimated by the Lib Dems because of that, but they could equally well lose seats to the Tories/BP if they were for Remain. Even supporting a People's Vote is a risk.

Anyway it's either some kind of WA or a No Deal, but like others here I'm totally against that due to people dying and even more extreme action from the right.

If the ERG and DUP hadn't been what they are, the UK would be out by now.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 13:02

Adam Bienkov @adambienkov
"The prime minister doesn't have any intention of resigning," says Michael Gove.

Is like football managers saying the manager has the full support of the board the night before they sack him?

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 13:04

Adam Parsons @adamparsons
BREAKING: Michel Barnier has postponed a visit to Belfast on Monday, saying it would be an “inappropriate” time to visit and that Westminster has reached “a moment of truth”.

Notable that Boris Johnson is due to visit Dublin on the same day@skynews

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 13:05

Adam Bienkov @adambienkov
"No-deal is never an end point," says Michael Gove.

"If we leave without a deal... conversations would go on about how we could build a better relationship"

Interesting...

OP posts:
OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 05/09/2019 13:06

Is like football managers saying the manager has the full support of the board the night before they sack him?

I'm not sure the chant of sacked in the morning, you're getting sacked in the morning works though. Unless the 1922 committee gets those letters

Basilpots · 05/09/2019 13:06

Anybody else think the WA will reappear and will get through on the back of Labour and moderate Tory’s? If the alternative is no deal.

Hardliners don’t vote for it so stay ‘pure’ in the eyes of Brexit voters.

Remainers get blamed again but disaster for the country is diverted.

LonelyTiredandLow · 05/09/2019 13:06

Body bag stockpiling story is breaking

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 13:06

when would posters feel safe to dismantle their No Deal stockpile stashes?

When article 50 has been revoked.

Maybe - maybe - if there was a GE and the tories didn't get back in, and the number of anti-no dealers was sufficient to pass whatever they wanted.

But as long as the tories are in charge - never.
Even if the W.A magically found the numbers to pass - if you think that has a happy ending, with a hard right govt in charge of proceedings, then you haven't been paying attention. (said with sinister Ramsey Bolton chuckle)

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 13:07

Peter Walker @peterwalker99
Astonishing: in the Commons, Jacob Rees-Mogg calls Dr David Nicholl, with whom he clashed over no-deal Brexit, "as irresponsible as Dr (Andrew) Wakefield", the disgraced anti-vaccines campaigner.

Background:
[[https://t.co/SmgM2Leoat LBC interview] ]

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 13:07

Peter Walker @peterwalker99
If that wasn't said under privilege in the Commons, that would very possibly be actionable. Astonishing thing for a government minister to say.

OP posts:
Icantreachthepretzels · 05/09/2019 13:08

"No-deal is never an end point," says Michael Gove.

"If we leave without a deal... conversations would go on about how we could build a better relationship"

Gee I wish I'd thought of that months and months and months and threads and threads and threads ago Hmm

Keep up, Gove

howabout · 05/09/2019 13:08

Jo Swinson just made Corbyn's life easier / harder Hmm

She confirmed to Andrew Neil that if Boris resigns rather than asking for an extension she would NOT support a GNU formed around a Corbyn Leadership. Therefore if Corbyn doesn't call GE now he will be beheaded before he even gets there. No way even anti-Corbyn Labour MPs could agree to this and then go into a GE with Corbyn in charge.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 13:09

Jon worth @jonworth
A question about prorogation - it was set for earliest 9th, latest 12th Sept

What determines which of those dates it is?

Nothing to do with Brexit. Completely normal procedure.

OP posts:
OublietteBravo · 05/09/2019 13:10

Ah. So BJ “I don’t want an election” is going to try and have a second crack at calling one before the week is out.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 13:11

Nicholas Watt @nicholaswatt
It looks like the Northern Ireland secretary Julian Smith has made a significant intervention in the commons. He confirmed that he was not consulted on the prorogation of parliament. He stated that the cabinet was simply updated before the announcment was made

Deep unease in Whitehall at No 10 failure to consult the NI secretary who is not any old cabinet minister. Julian Smith told MPs that deal or no deal tricky decisions about NI will have to be made at pace. And the commons is not due back until 3 days before EU summit

Julian Smith also said that powers may have to be taken quickly depending on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. That may be code for: emergency legislation to restore direct rule over NI in the event of no deal

And Tony Lloyd, the shadow NI sec whose urgent question summoned Julian Smith to the commons, said that the parliamentary authority for the civil service to run NI (in absence of Stormont executive) runs out mid October

Brilliant. Just brilliant

OP posts:
LonelyTiredandLow · 05/09/2019 13:11

Yes Basil that is what I think will happen. Longer term it's a better position for the Tories and averts major riots for either side before the impacts hit, which won't be as severe as they would have been with ND.

Swipe left for the next trending thread