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Brexit

Westminstenders: Skullduggery Fatigue

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/09/2019 22:19

A recap as best I can

Johnson-Cummings wanted an election. Their entire strategy was based on getting one before 31st Oct to get a majority to force No Deal through and retain power for 5 years.

They protested they didn't. They poked and tried to provoke and outrage in order to get one

But the trap was spotted.

The Commons instead voted to give power to parliament to control the timetable in order to try and block no deal.

This came at a high price for 21 Tory rebels who have been kicked out of the party ungraciously and without an ounce of the respect that the HoC usually demands despite differences of opinion and its pantomime jeers.

This combined with Johnson's prorogation (and what seems to be lying to the Queen in order to get her consent if the Cherry case to block prorogation seems to be suggesting) has shocked and enraged Tory 'moderates'.

Johnson under estimated the size of the rebellion and his threat to deselect seemed to spur on rebels rather than deter them, as it made them perceive Johnson as a threat to democracy and the constitution more than if he'd taken a softer line.

He also seems to have underestimated the internal reaction amongst those who remained loyal to the party. One MP is on record saying Johnson can't take his vote for granted. At the 1922 committee MPs who stood up for the rebels were cheered whilst those who stood up for government jeered. Johnson blamed his whip for the expulsions rather than take responsibility himself which again hasn't gone down well. The chair of the One Nation Tories Damien Green has written to the PM demanding their reinstatement so all is definitely not well. Johnson has ploughed on with the selection of the rebels replacements nonetheless. The idea was to strengthen Johnson and end the internal tory civil war but his heavy handed approach doesn't seem to have settled matters yet at least. Tonight Caroline Spelman joined the rebellion but hasn't been expelled from the party, which makes last nights hard line look even worse.

The bill to block no deal passed the Commons and has gone to the lords. The Kinnock Amendment to try and return May's deal passed in an act of government skullduggery designed to sink the bill completely but thus does not seem to have paid off and may yet provide an emergency escape route from no deal. It highlights the extent Johnson will use dirty tricks.

Tonight the vote was for a GE. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act the government needed 2/3rds of parliament to trigger one.

Labour, figuring it was a trap, havent bitten. Instead they have made preconditions to triggering one.

This scuppers Johnson's plan and its not clear where we go from here. Johnson us a lame duck but has the power of the PM's office.

He can create a vision that it's the people v parliament to help him for when we do have a GE which is now all but inevitable. This is dangerous.

But no deal is dangerous too.

The stakes are high.

Hopefully the no deal bill will pass the lords though may be hampered all weekend by filibustering.

It returns to the Commons on Monday where it needs to pass.

Then we are expecting prorogation to commence.

For Johnson who needed a GE on the 15th, Monday is his last day to trigger it. Expect more dirty tricks but he's running out of options

Come mid October the pressure for a deal will ramp up on Johnson. No deal is still the default but he will have to be seen to be doing something, not just blaming everyone else and taking no responsibility himself.

Will prorogation go ahead in these circumstances? It's now open to debate...

Johnson-Cummings strategy still could work, but it's substantially weakened and now Johnson will have to do something more radical and possibly illegal to get his own way.

And that General Election before the fall out if No Deal is still his ultimate goal as its his gateway to retain power...

... Expect even more fireworks to come.

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Thread gallery
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RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 12:04

Laura Kuenssberg@bbclaurak
No secret that Johnson brothers in very different places on Brexit - but unbelievable timing to do it like this - understood to be upset about the purge of colleagues

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DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 12:04

It is too late for Gove to force a reverse without destroying Tory Party along with Boris.

An interesting comment that presupposes the current Tory party is Strong and Stable. I've built sturdier sandcastles.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 12:05

Simon Nixon @simon_nixon
How difficult this must have been for ⁦⁦*@JoJohnsonUK⁩ . When he quit the May government @thetimes* dubbed him Honest Jo and contrasted his willingness to tell the truth with his brother’s “characteristic dishonesty”. Many will feel the wrong brother is quitting politics.

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M15sterPip · 05/09/2019 12:06

Not the first time that's happened, is it?

JasperRising · 05/09/2019 12:07

Sorry if this has already been addressed - I only dip into these threads occasionally - but how much influence do the PM and current government have over party candidates? Are all the quitting moderate Tory MPs going to be replaced by guaranteed Johnson supporters? And if so where are more moderate Tory voters going to find their 'home'. Will they just go along with the less moderate party because that is better than voting for anyone else - like a pp my MP manages to sound like he is reasonable and considers all sides of a debate but then his voting principles always match the party line even if that line changes, and I can see voters being the same.

I know that there are problems with multi party/coalition government political systems, but it would be nice for there to be options for those don't feel they fit in with the major UK parties but would support one that is a slightly more moderate version. Would also be nice for those of us who live in safe seats belonging to a party they definitely don't support!

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 12:07

Henry Zeffman @hzeffman
Thanks to the "purge", the number of letters required for a vote of confidence in Boris Johnson's leadership is now 44 rather than 48...

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RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 12:11

Sebastian Payne@SebastianePayne
Boris Johnson on Jo Johnson:

“The prime minister would like to thank Jo Johnson for his service. He has been a brilliant, talented minister and a fantastic MP. The PM, as both a politician and brother, understands this will not have been an easy matter for Jo."

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ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 05/09/2019 12:12

Jasper
I doubt they will have enough time to search for many new candidates. There is also a real risk of some of the rebels standing as independents. They will already have been lining up people for those seats where the MP said they were standing down.

Peregrina · 05/09/2019 12:14

Also with all the stuff coming out about reasons for proroguing and how he might have lied to the Queen there might be legal reasons why he might want to reverse on prorogation to avoid certain things coming out in court tomorrow at the Cherry Appeal.

I would really enjoy it if it could all be traced directly back to Johnson and Cummings and they found themselves up in Court on a charge of attempting to pervert the course of Justice.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 12:14

Sorry if this has already been addressed - I only dip into these threads occasionally - but how much influence do the PM and current government have over party candidates?

Officially none - the Tories always used to boast how they worked up from a grassroots base as a contrast to the clunking Soviet-style imposed candidate way of doing things. Dr. Phillip Lee alluded to that when he said it was why the Tories had always had such a broad appeal.

But now ? Who knows. As Labour and the TUC know to their dear cost when they were undermined in the 70s by all sorts of extremist infiltrators, it doesn't take many to change things when most are indifferent or apathetic.

All I know is there are many Tories who are still remainers - let alone "no dealers". And current events aren't really floating their boats.

If someone with mischievous intent infiltrated the Tories last year, and used their leadership vote to back Boris, they've done a pretty good job of wreaking the havoc the hoped for.

TheMShip · 05/09/2019 12:15

Brexit committee:

Q: On the Andrew Marr Show you could not say you would comply with the bill designed to stop a no-deal Brexit because you had not seen it. Now you have seen it, will you comply with it?

Yes, says Gove.

Do you believe him?

Basilpots · 05/09/2019 12:15

Well that opinion poll of Tory members did say they were prepared to see the destruction of their party as a price high enough to pay for Brexit.

DGRossetti · 05/09/2019 12:15

I would really enjoy it if it could all be traced directly back to Johnson and Cummings and they found themselves up in Court on a charge of attempting to pervert the course of Justice.

Boris wouldn't. That's a certain. But the price for that would be Cummings head on a platter. If we're playing a game of "what would Donald do ?"

LonelyTiredandLow · 05/09/2019 12:18

The 'youthquake' in 2017 was stymied by Brexit. As soon as Corbyn plonked his bum on the fence youth went off him in droves and were hardly going to vote LD with the tuition fees still being harped on about.

Now it's a different political landscape once again.

Basilpots · 05/09/2019 12:20

Bit concerning with the infiltration of Leave.eu into local Tory associations what right wing delights will be put forward.

Hope there is plenty of scrutiny into these individuals from all constituents before they decide who to vote for.

If I was a moderate Tory in one of those constituencies I would be concerned.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 12:20

Jessica elgot@jessicaelgot
This would be a tough ask for Luciana Berger, but the interview with the Evening Standard strongly suggests she is going to stand in London... wonder where?

Twickenham??

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RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 12:22

Kate McCann @kateemccann
The timing of this decision must really sting. Boris Johnson is heading to Yorkshire in a few hours for a speech billed as the first day of an election campaign (!) where he will face questions from journalists. This will feature heavily. Not what No10 wanted.

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OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 05/09/2019 12:26

JC on twitter (or his people handling it) is holding firm. He's retweeted the guardian article about the surge in register to vote applications.

This is incredible.

When we've stopped No Deal we need a General Election. So make sure you can actually vote in it.

Register to vote today

Don't think The Sun's stunt did anything to change his mind.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 12:28

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
^New from @AlbertoNardelli:

Boris Johnson personally told Donald Tusk the UK would provide new Brexit proposals within a week, but then failed to do so, according to a diplomatic note seen by BuzzFeed News^

www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/boris-johnson-tusk-g7-brexit?__twitter_impression=true
Boris Johnson Told Donald Tusk At The G7 That The UK Would Provide Brexit Proposals “Next Week.” It Didn’t.
An EU diplomatic note seen by BuzzFeed News says that the UK has yet to put forward any concrete proposals and ideas.

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RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 12:30

Don't think The Sun's stunt did anything to change his mind.

Interesting that BBC politics live showed the front page of the Scottish sun which is critical of Johnson, not the English sun.

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RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 12:33

Lisa O'carroll @lisaocarroll
Gove admits that lorries could be held for up to 2 hours in Dover if they don't have right paperwork

^Brexit committee heard yester that French said they could hold trucks without paperwork for up to 8 hours.
Gove confirms that some trucks could be sent back to UK for paperwork^

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Basilpots · 05/09/2019 12:34

If I was Corbyn I would just own the blouse stunt.

Declare Monday Shit shirt/blouse day, pay £5 donate money to Refuge and ask The Sun to match money raised.

RedToothBrush · 05/09/2019 12:36

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Senior No10 staff had no warning about Jo Johnson's resignation. Unclear when he told Boris. An extraordinary hostile act from his own brother. This is what Millibands do to each other not Johnsons.

It transpires that the PM and Jo Johnson had a long phone conversation last night about his resignation. Boris urged Jo to reconsider overnight. He didn't. PM said nothing about it to even his most senior aides.

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fedup21 · 05/09/2019 12:39

If I was Corbyn I would just own the blouse stunt.Declare Monday Shit shirt/blouse day, pay £5 donate money to Refuge and ask The Sun to match money raised.

Brilliant

JustAnotherPoster00 · 05/09/2019 12:39

This would be a tough ask for Luciana Berger, but the interview with the Evening Standard strongly suggests she is going to stand in London... wonder where?

Golders Green

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